Students, the King, the Patriarch and St. Vitus

At the beginning of last week, President of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Dobrica Cosic received a group of his old friends, now rallied round DEPOS. They said they do not recognize him as president, and addressed him solely as Mr. Cosic.

The economic section of his inaugural speech contained the formula "sedulousness and great frugality", which shows that he sees the national economy as a kind of family cooperative. It is unquestionable that Cosic fosters an affection for the values of the Serbian village, but he left it a long time ago. The village has changed its technology, and is now dependent on oil and industry. This means that there may be no planting in the fall.

The paraphrased words "we'll ride horses" must be placed next to the fact that Serbia only has around 35,000 horses, which is less than one percent of the number of households, and the horses are mostly to be found in Kosovo and Sandzak, thanks to it being under-developed and certain tactical decisions. There are no nails to shoe them, either. The Slovenes make them.

After two hours of talks, the DEPOS friends politely took leave of Cosic, and went away disappointed. He made it clear to them that he was not giving up Milosevic (he said he feared Milosevic's resignation would result in chaos and antagonisms, extricating himself by saying that issue did not fall within his competences).

When Vojislav Kostunica (the Democratic Party) suggested that he was not expected to act within the Constitution, rather outside the Constitution, politically not legally, to use his, presumably, significant authority and not his small competences, Cosic made no answer, gazing at a point in the distance, fixing it in the same way as when asked whether Serbia can hold out against the blockade. According to one testimonial, Cosic promised general elections in autumn, and according to another, after the sanctions are lifted, even though it is not clear how he could have promised that when he can schedule only federal elections. He did not accept a constituent assembly, saying that the Constitution can be improved through amendments, overlooking that those amendments can now be proposed only by the Socialist-Radical coalition in the Yugoslav Parliament.

An opposition politician described Cosic's attitude to Milosevic as "minimum decency": he, as head of state, cannot allow himself to speak openly against the current head of a republic. Some give importance to his statement that his relations with Milosevic are not friendly but cooperative.

It was clear that Cosic was not giving the Television either (he claimed that this Vucelic's (General Director of Radio&TV Serbia) television was no less biased than "the other one". This television, which Cosic defended as best he knew how, continued to bedevil and slander the students, DEPOS, Vuk Draskovic, and anything else that moved. The television does this in almost the same way in which the Serbian members of Parliament speak - inventing family trees, suspecting "non-Serbian descent". Thus, the regime is humiliating its citizens, forcing them to yield to the claustrophobic atmosphere and take from their trunks the birth certificates of their ancestry. This, perhaps, is the current regime's most lethal action. Luckily, the new generation has enforced its own defense mechanisms against chauvinist madness, judging by the behavior of the Belgrade students.

The students have sent the MPs a reproachful letter, and the professors and students of philosophy addressed Vucelic, asking him to resign, for moral reasons. Naturally, the campaign continued.

And so, Cosic was saving Milosevic as best he knew how by disgracing himself, anticipating the perniciousness of the atmosphere this one was maintaining, expecting to take bits of power from him. Despised by the world, Milosevic willfully severed the attempt, in the Serbian Parliament, to form a national salvation government and succeeded in curbing the Socialists' rebellion within, for a while at least.

The arguments to oust the Bozovic Government referred to the Prime Minister's arrogance, to the fact that under his rule, Serbia lost its sovereignty, that Parliament did not control the Government, that some armed extreme groups were operating in Serbia, protected by the Interior Minister. The Government was accused of causing the economic system's total breakdown, of destroying the reputation of the Serbian people. It was criticized for being unable to prevent the increasingly stricter international blockade and stop galloping inflation. Bozovic answered by insulting those who signed the petition demanding his resignation.

Even when touched upon, the galloping disaster was said to be the effect of the international community's sanctions (each and every speaker would say "unjust sanctions"). Milomir Babic, one of the rare peasants' MPs, wanted to be told what happened to the economy, agriculture, and health service before the sanctions. They did not even listen to him.

At one point, it looked as though the Socialists would sacrifice Bozovic, as though the opposition would give up the change. In the draft joint document that all parliamentary groups were to draw up, a sentence saying that the Serbian Parliament was against spreading the illusion on a quick break of the blockade was missing, the forming of a Round Table was not accepted (despite the fact that Dobrica Cosic himself was in favor of this idea and the Socialists verbally support the President); and a "change of government" turned into a "change within the government". The Socialists unwillingly agreed to elections by the end of 1992, but fought in the Parliament Hall, behind closed doors, for the scheduling of elections to be tied to the lifting of the sanctions in the form of an ultimatum.

While the crisis escalated, while factory after factory was closing down, while hospital upon hospital was announcing it had no more drugs, the broadcasting of telegrams of support continued. On the same day (Thursday, June 25) when a meeting of Belgrade economists unequivocally said that an economic catastrophe was forthcoming and that this should not be kept from the people, a telegram crept by the TV editors from a jester who told Milosevic to "Stay as long as the Serbian people want you to!".

Another two events are worth being mentioned to assess the balance of forces - the strike in Sevojno, which resembled pressure on the state leadership in Serbia, was crushed at the outset, and twice last week managers strongly criticized the authorities in Serbia and the fact that the true state of affairs in the economy was being concealed. Their proclamation stressed that the economy neither waged war nor needed war.

The Milosevic regime, obviously, it not even capable of organizing the distribution of foodstuffs in short supply - one week after being issued, gas coupons turned up on the black market, the taxicab drivers doing better selling coupons than driving.

Once again Milosevic demonstrated that he was not a man for agreements and that his policy simply cannot be corrected. This increases DEPOS's chances, but in many ways it also increases the risk of conflicts in Serbia. DEPOS and Vuk Draskovic claim they have information that the Army will take a neutral position during the following political crisis in Serbia. DEPOS has sent an open letter to officers and soldiers, guaranteeing the Army a professional status and acquitting it of responsibility for the lost wars and defeats that are said to be the result of wrong command. One day later, the SPO (Serbian Renewal Movement) sent an open invitation to soldiers and policemen to "join the ranks of democracy". The prominent "Financial Times" daily wrote it supposed Milosevic has lost control over the Army. General Stevanovic (Major-General, Air Force commander) told a Japanese newspaper that the Army will take a neutral stand. However, it would be worth collecting much more evidence for such far-reaching conclusions on the Army's behavior. Some people in DEPOS, moreover, believe that Milosevic could rely on well trained, indoctrinated, possibly even fanatical SWAT teams.

Cosic, in actual fact, has violated the Constitution by wasting his constitutionally allotted term for nominating the prime minister designate, waiting for Panic and avoiding Montenegro's proposals.

The Serbian Patriarch's invitation to Panic was an unusual extension of assistance to Cosic by the Church, even though, in its Memorandum, the Serbian Orthodox Church de facto challenged the validity of the May '92 federal election. News from the other side of the ocean indicated that nothing would come of it. As far as can be seen, Cosic has not achieved anything either on the domestic or on the foreign plane. He has sent his advisor abroad, Micunovic's trip to the U.S.A. could perhaps also mark a diplomatic endeavor, he wrote UN Secretary General Boutros Ghali a letter asking for humanitarian aid to Krajina, it was not said whether he openly called on Koljevic or Karadzic to stop, Milosevic's outing to Strasbourg has disappointed Lord Carrington...

Another player is joining the game: Crown Prince Aleksandar. He will tour towns in Serbia and Montenegro to get to know his people and to have the people get to know monarchy. His role is not quite clear. He will probably continue to promote a European type of parliamentary monarchy, and the majority of the opposition will support him in order to be able to answer the populace's question: "Okay, who'll come when Milosevic goes?". According to Milosevic, Aleksandar took quite a definite stance when he said that he "must go". Aleksandar's presence in the country will also threaten Seselj, who insulted Aleksandar so much that some of his advisors said curtly: he represents an obstacle to democracy.

Tension is not great between the royalists and the republicans because, with the current balance of forces, the majority is indifferent to this dilemma, considering that everybody is forecasting some kind of symbolic power to Aleksandar.

DEPOS has invited the people to come to the St. Vitus' Day Rally under the slogan "peace and democracy". Nobody can estimate how may people will assemble, nor can anybody really know how long this rally may last. Many towns have announced their organized arrival in Belgrade, many SPO committees are demanding that the rally continues until the demands are fulfilled. SPS Secretary Petar Skundric said the St. Vitus' Day Rally was "a coup attempt"...

On St. Vitus' Day in 1989 in Kosovo, Slobodan Milosevic, then at the peak of his power, for the first time mentioned war. That was the tip of a wave on which he rode, saying that it was not important if something was statutory or not, institutional or not...