Without a Mutual and Convincing Strategy

Before NATO air strikes on Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic often received the unforgettable Richard Holbrooke and other international intermediaries and delegates, Milan Milutinovic enjoyed several pleasant walks in the gardens of French palaces, while Zivadin Jovanovic occasionally traveled to various world centres for political purposes. After the war, leaders of the Serbian opposition are flying in exclusive airplanes, shaking hands and holding press conferences together with leaders of the most powerful countries of the West. What difference does that make for Serbia and the Serbs?

Not much at the moment. The country is still struck by the sanctions, isolated from all international institutions and has no access to political, economic or scientific trends which mark the beginning of the new millennium. The Serbs are still a second name for all possible kinds of evil, barbarism and primitivism. It could, however, be even worse. It could be worse if Europe and America decided to create a sanitary circle around us, forget us for another 20-30 years, and let us sink without interruption into a complete anarchy and misery. Between such an outcome and the citizens of Serbia there remain only leaders of the opposition.

CHANCES: What are their chances to bring Serbia back to the international political scene and, therefore, enable certain perspectives for a normal life of all citizens?
If we are to judge the level and frequency of international high- rank meetings - the chances are quite promising. In October, the opposition leaders were invited to Luxemburg to a conference of the EU ministers, in order to meet the leaders of those countries and try to discuss the Serbian situation. At the beginning of  November, eight delegates of the Alliance for Changes traveled to Washington at the call of a non-governmental organisation called 'Freedom House' and talked to some high representatives of the American administration, with Madeleine Albright as their supervisor. By the end of November, heads of the major opposition parties went to Istanbul where, as 'personal guests' of the President of the Czech Republic Vaclav Havel, they attended the summit of OSCE and had numerous other high-level meetings. In December, they traveled to Berlin where, in the margins of the G8 meeting (the group of seven most developed countries of the world plus Russia), an inferior meeting the USA and EU was held, together with the 'democratic forces of FRY', or rather with the Serbian opposition and Milo Djukanovic. In short, Vuk Draskovic, Zoran Djindjic, Dragoslav Avramovic, Vuk Obradovic, Dragoljub Micunovic and other were given international meaning, which is much beyond their political significance in the country, let alone in the world. 'We are partners of the entire world', exclaimed Zoran Djindjic (president of the Democratic Party) after his return from Istanbul. 'It has never happened in the history of Europe and America that an official committee was formed together with the opposition of one country, that the same opposition was accepted as an official partner by EU and America at the same time', added Djindjic truimphantly.

Let us see what stands behind those victorious statements.

DEMANDS: The first and foremost demand of all leaders of the Serbian opposition at all meetings was the removal of those sanctions which demoralise the ordinary citizens and, at the same time, the intensification of those sanctions which collide with the regime (the ban on issuing visas to Milosevic and his associates); humanitarian aid and support to the project 'Energy for Democracy' (oil, primarily for those towns in which the opposition is in power, and for others too); and a full protection of Serbs and other non-Albanian ethnic minorities in Kosovo. The sanctions - neither the ban on flights nor the import of petrol, introduced as a consequence of the Kosovo war - were annulled. Nor will they be for the time being. The infamous 'external wall' of sanctions will remain, in whatever form, as long as Milosevic retains the power. Some forms of humanitarian aid does reach the country, by way of official channels - mostly via the Red Cross organisation - though it is not certain where it actually ends. The beginning of the project 'Energy for Democracy' was not very successful: the tank trucks full of petrol intended for Nis and Pirot were held at the border crossing for days before they reached their final destination. In the meantime, Vojislav Seselj totally spoiled their propaganda value by emphasising that we are expecting a more serious help from the Russians and the Chinese - about forty cisterns of petrol. The destiny of Kosovo is, as it has always been, completely beyond the reach of the opposition.

The opposition representatives repeat that the West has to give them something, and it should be very soon. It is not difficult to understand: meetings with the leaders of the countries which have bombed us will not grant them any general recognition if they have nothing to give them in return. The anti-West mood, so strongly imposed and maintained by the regime, became even the inspiration for a current song often played on the radio and television: 'I hate Americans/They are just a piece of shit/They would like to throw the Serbs into chains'. The West, however, does not know what to offer them, what would not be useful to the regime. They explicitly say that they cannot help us to overthrow Slobodan Milosevic - we have to do it ourselves.

CONNECTIONS: At the beginning of December, the ministers of EU announced their resoluteness to offer some help for the 'restoration of democracy in FRY and for strengthening the connections with it', stressing that any co-operation between EU and Serbian democratic forces 'has to be focused on an immediate help, the support of democracy in FRY and planning of the post-Milosevic period'. Javier Solana, a high representative for mutual foreign and safe policy of EU - who happens to be responsible for co-ordination with the Serbian opposition - stated that it would be advantageous to compel the authorities in Serbia to call the pre-term and truly democratic elections with help in organising the 'proper pre-election campaigns and the free access of all parties and coalitions to the independent media'. On the contrary, Milosevic evidently demonstrates that he has no intention of calling such pre-term elections, and especially not the free and democratic ones.

MYSTERIES: What did really our 'democratic forces' talk about with the US Secretary of State for 90 minutes in Berlin - she was actually hurrying to meet the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Igor Ivanov - before going to a press conference? According to Madeleine Albright, that was 'perhaps a historic moment, which signifies the beginning of a co-operation between the international association and the democratic opposition of Serbia for the benefit of the citizens of Serbia'. That was an attempt to demonstrate that one of the reasons why Western politicians waste so much time talking with our opposition representatives is in fact to explain that they had never had anything against our people and our country, but only against our cruel regime. Albright was rather poetic when she said: 'this is a momentous meeting in a historic city, when the leading world powers met with the leading Yugoslav democrats.' She added that a financial assistance of 12 million dollars in favour of 'helping the Serbian democracy and the preparation of the elections', will be increased to 25 million dollars.

Nevertheless, after many statements of the leaders of the Serbian opposition, the subject of conversations with Madeleine Albright, Joscka Ficher, Tyra Halonen and others still remains a mystery. In general, what it comes down to is: a) they are concerned to promote themselves, either individually or their political parties, as supporters of the West and opponents of Milosevic's regime and b) to stress that they are not blackmailed to unite themselves, but that they are just following certain facultative proposals in that direction.

OUTCOME OF EVENTS: It can be heard that the opposition leaders care more about including more people in their delegations and eliminating those whom they do not favour, instead of conceiving some efficient and convincing strategy for those meetings. There is no mention about a mutually conceived conception for surpassing the crisis, a peaceful replacement of the regime and the future after Milosevic's departure. That does not surprise us a lot: if the opposition is not capable to represent itself as a serious alternative to the regime before the domestic publicity - why should it give a different impression in its meetings with influential politicians abroad?

In January there is supposed to be a meeting in Budva of the expert group of trilateral committee of the representatives of EU, the USA and the Serbian opposition. The subject is humanitarian aid and aid in energy resources for Serbia. As Zoran Djindjic said, having arrived from Berlin, a group for immediate help will be formed and it will have its own budget and it will try to carry out the suggested programs as soon as the necessary documentation is prepared. That will be the next out of several more chances for the Serbian opposition to prove that they have some kind of political experience and strength to save the country from the ruling regime. Otherwise, the total international isolation is inevitable, since it is quite unlikely that the West will forget about the Hague Tribunal charges and resume the diplomacy with Milosevic. However, there is another possibility: another war in FRY, which could lead to another NATO intervention, which could end with the international protectorate. The responsibility of the opposition is enormous, though it does not seem that its representatives are aware of that. An edifying French proverb says that 'even the most beautiful girl can offer only what she has.'