Defending Hearths

June was a month of political upheavals and the regrouping of political forces. The organizers themselves say the St. Vitus' Day Rally did not succeed in assembling the people to a critical number, sufficient for the much needed speedy political turn, considering the catastrophic situation Serbia is in.

The organizers of the Rally did not manage to use the event's crescendos and energy for the more successful commencement of negotiations with the authorities. They negotiated when the prospects were slight, but did not negotiate when they roused a mass. It is difficult to assess how many people will remain faithful to them, and they also encountered some unpleasantness when they decided to explain to the people that the Rally must end. Vuk Draskovic was the most agile with his best speech to date, and his frequent appearances lent the Rally an atmosphere. The Rally also revealed his traditional fault - shortness of breath.

With their quiet determination, the students turned out to be the regime's strongest opponent. They embarked on their marches with a silent, seemingly shaky, resoluteness, as though to test the pulse of the public which they addressed more than the regime. When one of the organizers in Tolstojeva Street last Tuesday said coldly that they could not pass because "they are stronger, and that's why we'll block Belgrade", one could feel the movement's enormous potential energy which it was not using in a calculated fashion, but only as an indication to those who are able to see, how it can be used.

The next day they continued their ironic "performance" by passing by the "house of shame" (Belgrade Television) with their eyes shut tight, left the MPs soap "to wash off their shame" and finally, enacting a mock police defense of the hearth at Tolstojeva 33, they made fun of that naked defense of the regime and, in fact, contributed to downgrading its authority more than dozens of political rallies ever could.

Bozovic's police discreetly avoided contact with the students in town, but it could not hide the threatened regime's paranoia - the defense of Dedinje turned out the principal message in June and could cost this regime as much as the cake cost Marie-Antoinette.

And while the students blocked Belgrade, the farmers blocked Southern Banat and the main road.

The demands of DEPOS (Democratic Movement of Serbia) were to organize elections for a constituent assembly (a demand that is rarely voiced today), postpone the elections scheduled for May 31 (which was not adopted, but new elections at all levels by the end of the year are already being negotiated), organize a round table between the authorities and the opposition (a topic which is being discussed at bloodless talks).

The plebiscite, at which the citizens would take a vote on a republic or a monarchy, is no longer being mentioned for strategic reasons. Since the royalists set the principal tone at the St. Vitus' Day Rally, the republicans in DEPOS shut up, offended.

The Church has reactivated its slow mills and is obviously working on establishing a monarchy. A large part of Prince Aleksandar's protocol obligations in various Serbian towns is linked with the Church. The Patriarch blessed the DEPOS Rally, but later also supported Milosevic's candidate for the post of the federal prime minister Panic, which caused confusion - was the Church having second thoughts?

The democratic opposition was active through three groups in June: through DEPOS, which believes that Milosevic's resignation could be forced relatively quickly by exerting pressure outside Parliament; through the majority wing in the Democratic Party which preferred negotiations and a provisional division of power; and through the Citizens' Alliance, composed of parties which have the most reason to rejoice morally because they indicated, in very difficult times, that the policy of force leads nowhere.

This group's space is opening up suddenly and skill will be required to use it politically.

The game in June unfolded around one goal - against the regime, each in their own way, went the students and their best allies - the farmers, the Crown and the Church, the Democrats and DEPOS, writers and musicians. Milosevic defended himself with the help of the television which was defended by the police which was defended by the Rally's security guards.

There were almost daily upheavals on the streets in the month of June and there will probably be more. As things stand now, an upheaval cannot be stopped but, to all intents and purposes, it will not lead to a revolution just yet. It seems that this soft pressure is working most for Cosic and Panic, whose stage is being set for a showdown with Milosevic.

In all this, Milosevic ought to owe more to Cosic than vice versa. In Panic's case, this is not quite clear. Panic financed Milosevic's satellite propaganda and his candidacy was probably envisaged as a smoke screen. His real ambitions will be known next week, when he makes public his cabinet.

In talks with the students, Panic practically disgraced Milosevic by defending their right to pass freely through Tolstojeva Street, intimating elections as a condition for implementing his own program, and telling the "Los Angeles Times" belligerently that he will do his work and that Milosevic can do his, but stressed: "God help him if he gets in my way!" Some of the students (after the month of June, they alone can be believed) said that they liked what Panic had to say.

After the opposition's June activities, it has become obvious that Milosevic has completely lost the support of national institutions and that he has yet to survive an even fiercer confrontation with the democratic center, while the army is in neutral gear, for now.

The opposition's demands are becoming increasingly radical. A group of 33 MPs asked Parliament last week to determine whether Slobodan Milosevic broke the presidential oath, whereby he undertook to invest all his strength in preserving peace and the welfare of the citizens of Serbia. This is beginning to look like an indictment.

In June, the democratic center controlled the biggest opposition rally in Serbia to date, but this was not sufficient to threaten Milosevic. The opposition was never stronger, the crisis never deeper, the regime never more foolhardy, but this simply was not enough for a more radical political change in Serbia.

As usual, after arrogantly refusing, the Milosevic regime started to bargain with the opposition on the conditions for the elections by the end of the year, and he linked his resignation cynically to "the will of the people".

As regards the round table, the Socialist Party and the Government are offering the opposition participation in Government committees called the round table: they promise concessions regarding the media, they promise to respect agreements and to "pass" the coordinated packets of laws through Parliament. The opposition is demanding a real round table and direct control of the elections.

In effect, the goal of the game is who will organize the new elections, the Government or a neutral body. This is important only because of one trifle - Serbian political history has not recorded any government losing elections which it organized. Therefore, the Government would have to fall for the elections to be free, so it is offering a "reshuffle"; instead of his resignation, Milosevic is offering "the verification of his mandate" and so on, in circles, while the clock is ticking away.

Official propaganda continues to bedevil opposition leaders and intimidate every opponent, branding them as foreign hirelings. Dr. Borisav Jovic has accused a dissident group in his own party of being infiltrated from abroad in order to break up the Socialist Party.

Parliament has led a libelous campaign against the students as well, but the students skillfully and wittily turned this into ridicule. The regime is instigating the hatred of the small, poor and frustrated people against the students, a large part of the opposition and anybody else who bears resemblance to a public opinion leader.

The Serbian President's favorite opposition figure Seselj, protected by his bodyguards, pointed his gun at the students and fled to the safety of the guarded Presidency.

Serbia resembles a sick person who needs urgent infusion. The end of June did not bring any speedy turn, any relief. A regime which is losing its head is preparing its last defense with the help of wartime communism (braced by war veterans' telegrams), while its opposers are fighting for the souls of the humiliated poor. Amazingly enough, the poor are not deserting him, but are fanatically defending the interest coalition with the regime, still believing that, while everything else around them is falling apart, it will continue to provide the bread crumbs and bare existence.