Panic vs. Bozovic?

A few days before he is to present his cabinet, the Federal Prime Minister Designate received a straightforward message from Serbia "to come to his senses", at least in two ways. Firstly, the adoption of the scandalous laws in the Serbian Parliament was followed by a remark that they will be implemented unless the future federal government does not make identical moves, i.e. Mr. Panic is free to choose between obeying Mr. Bozovic's dictate or being in charge of the Federal Government building's maintenance and, hopefully, its adjacent lawns. Secondly, Mr. Panic should consider whether his concept of running an economy infringes on Mr. Bozovic's laws, since he is advocating privatization, a free and open economy and similar incriminating ideas.

Nevertheless, the new Federal PM is not showing signs of nervousness at the moment, which should be interpreted as proof of his complete familiarity with the local situation and everything he can be confronted with. Only a brief communiqué followed his confrontation, more precisely talks, with Mr. Bozovic. What also followed was Mr. Bozovic's statement that Mr. Panic did not study economics. Mr. Bozovic, as everybody knows, has a Ph.D. in economics, but malicious tongues maintain that the damage he caused by far exceeds the millions of dollars that non-economist Panic made on the American market.

Besides the blow from the Serbian Parliament, Mr. Panic was also not lucky in his attempt to obtain 100 days from the CSCE to establish a speedy peace in Yugoslavia, which he always singles out as his immediate task. Despite that, Mr. Panic sent a letter to the President of the IMF, in which he quite openly says the obvious truth that foreign financial support is indispensable for any serious reform, and that he is prepared to sit down and negotiate with the representatives of the states that have emerged from the former Yugoslavia as soon as possible. It still remains to be seen what the "world financial policeman's" reaction will be, although it does not seem realistic to expect the FR of Yugoslavia's status in the Fund to become normal, until its international political position is clarified.

The Serbian Parliament's decisions (introduction of "war communism" in six items) of last week will definitely be recorded as history's most shameful. However, history here is going at top speed, so the only tangible hope is that the Government is making suicidal moves because it has destroyed all bridges that lead to reality and the normal world. Maybe it sees its last chance in chaos, which again would be less unfair than the SPS' (Socialist Party of Serbia) no-risk voting machinery in Parliament, which gets anything through.

However, even that machinery is beginning to jam and break down. Mr. Jovan Cvetkovic, one of the six MPs expelled from the SPS for attempting to form a faction, revealed in a Studio B Television broadcast on Thursday that SPS MPs blindly vote for any Government proposal, and ignore the position of parliamentary committees whose members they are.

The draft laws practically mean that Serbia is left without a Constitution, not only because these laws have no constitutional grounds, but also because they derogate several basic constitutional principles and a whole chapter in the republican constitution, such as the guaranteed freedom of entrepreneurship, the exchange of goods and services, and the circulation of labor and capital. "The Government cannot be granted such blank authorization to regulate these issues by its decrees. Not only can the Government not pass such regulations, Parliament too would not be permitted to pass them as laws", said Mr. Grubac (a legal expert and Reform Party MP) in a parliamentary debate on the laws.

"Oh yes it can", said SPS MPs the next day, and Mr. Bozovic, judging by some other gatherings, hoodwinked both the MPs and the public by saying: "In preparing and adopting these measures, with full consideration for the real social and economic limitations, the Government relied not only on the knowledge of the Economic Council members and groups of experts working together with the Council, but also on talks, and dialogue with several hundred directors of Serbia's leading firms and Chambers of Commerce." Belgrade businessmen said the Bozovic Government measures represent another blockade of the Serbian economy, and even if they had not said so, suffice it to say that they suggested to Mr. Panic to consider Mr. Milorad Savicevic (former director general of Serbia's most successful firm "GENEX", who was replaced by the present regime) as a member of his government.

All hopes are turning to Mr. Panic and his promises that he will establish a market economy - that's the gist of a symposium held in the Yugoslav Chamber of Commerce, in Belgrade on Wednesday. The Serbian Government's latest moves were assessed as an attempt to stay in power.

By the middle of next week, when the PM Designate presents his cabinet, the public will be closer to some important revelations. If he succeeds in forming a government of experts and not of partisans, then the reaction of the pro-Seselj-Milosevic majority in the Federal Parliament will be worth seeing.

However, the real answers to key dilemmas will come only after the relationship between the federal government and the Serbian Government is clarified. The question is: will the creation of market mechanisms be faster than Mr. Bozovic's threat policy?