Protector of a Handful of Sand

Apparently, a police regime falls apart when the police gets tired, weary, when it satisfies its appetites, and when the task of preserving peace becomes complicated. The police seems to have withdrawn to the shadows, discreetly and in order: the disintegration of communism did not lead to seeking mass and brutal revenge anywhere. Part of the experienced apparatus, which is difficult to replace, placed itself in the service of the new regime in which there are probably many who could be blackmailed, thanks to the old police files.

If it is true that there is no democracy without a strong police force, then one must add that there is no peaceful transformation from a totalitarian order without the police's consent and cooperation. Two republics in the small Yugoslavia are still waiting for this consent. The only thing that happened so far was substituting a multi-party police regime for a single party one. The old Serbian Secret Police is no longer arresting anybody, but its presence is felt strongly in political life. It played a major role in the advancement of Slobodan Milosevic, in organizing the anti-bureaucratic movement, in frustrating and discrediting the opposition, and in mobilizing and rousing the Serbs outside Serbia.

Nevertheless, the regime is sliding downhill despite all maneuvering, ceding and modification, which is best illustrated in the attitude of the police. This regime cannot and dares not use the police as a legitimate regime, sure of the people's support, can. Milosevic mastered this lesson on March 9 last year, when he avoided, by the skin of his teeth, paying a great price for his self-assured employment of the police. Since then, the Belgrade police handles every rally with kid gloves, but even that is not enough.

From the viewpoint of maintaining order, the blockade at the entrance to Tolstojeva Street was not unbefitting. The students' protest march was too large, and hundreds of policemen could not fit into Milosevic's garden and at the same time not step on the grass, only to allow the students to pass peacefully. All the same, they became angry because this regime no longer has any moral right to demonstrate force of any kind whatsoever.

Many invoked, in vain, America's example and showed us police brutality in beating down the racial unrest in San Francisco. When everything else here becomes like it is in America, then the police will be allowed to beat like that without great political risk or consequences. Of so many things in America, they zeroed in on this one. The local fascists like to recall how Japanese Americans, in the last war, were always under suspicion and cross-checked, and thus invoke their right to call for the expulsion of all non-Serbs from Serbia.

After March 9, Milosevic was forced to replace the Republican Interior Minister. The post was taken over by Zoran Sokolovic who has not uttered a word in public since then, except for "What are you talking about, idiot?", which slipped out in Parliament. He, probably, is not personally responsible, only, during his term in office, Belgrade started accumulating weapons, shoot outs became more frequent, various armed groups appeared - almost private police forces, threats were made, pressure exerted, flats and business premises of companies and newspaper houses outside Serbia were broken into, and no kind of charges were of any help.

Sokolovic's police is protecting only the President's villa and the television building, from peaceful demonstrators. The regime does not dare take direct responsibility for persecuting and ethnically purging Vojvodina villages, so it leaves this to Seselj who, in turn, can walk the streets of Belgrade waving a gun, unhindered. He is too ruthless for a candidate for imposing order, but he senses the regime's weakness and readiness to offer him a chance. As far as the police is concerned, he is probably now already above Sokolovic, in terms of authority. Policemen are not used to having the opposition raise Cain under their noses, nor having students tease them with flowers while they, helplessly tighten their grasp on their guns. And Seselj promises to return honor to the police force.

Before it agrees to naked fascism, Serbia still has a few options left. One has been tried out already, but it did not turn out to be the best shot. Seselj does not have anything to offer which Milosevic has not already tried, both as regards war and the country's internal order. He is counting on the same people and the same means as Milosevic. Belgrade rejects both, and the chaos and affliction that Milosevic produced can only double with a policy that promises even more of the same. The country is threatened by an international intervention, and Seselj believes all we have to do is flex our muscles.

No matter how good it makes the army and police feel that somebody still believes in them, they are certainly aware that the problems here are not of a military-police nature. Everybody in these branches who was able to (an many were) went private and gave up worrying about the state. The students probably irritate them, they are too young and fresh, but then Seselj also looks like somebody who is causing a disturbance and again asking something from them.

The regime is tapering off, the ruling party is falling apart at the seams, the police is turning apathetic, and the army is silent, waiting to see what is going to happen. A new protagonist on the scene is Milan Panic, who is bring back into circulation the forgotten and despised optimism of Ante Markovic. Peace, democracy, new elections, the opening up of the media, business. He and his program are to be accepted by the Federal Parliament composed of Socialists and Seselj's Radicals, and he will offer them something they never wanted. The Serbian Government is already preparing its defense, it is giving itself special authority and is trying to encourage Sokolovic to no longer tolerate events such as the DEPOS Rally and the student marches.

Following the advice of some good doctor, Milosevic is not appearing in person, but Bozovic is making moves which are the direct opposite of Panic's announcements. He is getting ready for a blockade regime, as though it will last forever, and is making threats using the police. Panic wants to find a way out of the blockade, but he cannot count on any kind of personal police. To all intents and purposes, Serbia will again come to grips with Yugoslavia, represented by Cosic and Panic. They have formal authority, but no instruments to implement it, which means that the role of Zoran Sokolovic and his executive body will become very important. Not in any way did he indicate the existence of a minimum of independent will, which is necessary to make even the slightest turn that withholding loyalty to Milosevic and standing by Cosic and Panic demand.

It remains to be seen what the army will say. No matter how hard Cosic and Panic try to ensure a peaceful transformation, regardless of the fact that Cosic, in particular, is a person of continuity who would not wish to do Milosevic any harm, the inhabitant of Tolstojeva 33 cannot but see this as the end of the world. Why should he step down when he still has his Sokolovic, and the ones who are doing the pushing don't have anything more than the half-naked students who wanted to get close to him? The only thing he will still believe in are the generals' arguments, if they come out with them.

The dispute seems a calm one, taking place in the family, but it could explode easily. It is not clear who will best put to use the obviously inevitable international military operation in Bosnia, but this is not so important any more. It looks like Cosic and Panic's endeavors have come too late for the country to avoid a beating. Who is going to take power from whom, in this situation, is a question worth just about as much as a handful of sand in the desert.