War of Words

The following fact from the global political scene sticks out: Prime Minister Milan Panic is going off for negotiations where the most prominent Serbian figures would have a hard time passing as tourists, and the army's number one took off on a tour of the troops on the Montenegrin coast. At the same time, the army is denying that its aircraft disturbed the foreign warships in the Adriatic Sea, warning that it has an effective defense against a possible infringement on Yugoslav territory.

Two Panices (Milan Panic - Prime Minister, Zivota Panic - Chief-of-Staff) and one Yugoslavia? One Panic in the West, the other in the South? These would be hasty and unfounded conclusions, regardless that the uniformed Panic told journalists in the Yugoslav Parliament that the army leadership will study the inaugural speech of Prime Minister Panic and set itself accordingly (to the speech and program derived from it). The fact that the Federal Prime Minister has also undertaken the duties of defense minister is surprising.

Officers' obedience is a topic that would not deserve mention here were it not for the fact that a civilian is in charge of the army, after many, many years. The true question is will the officers obey their minister and prime minister? This has nothing to do with relations within a small group of people, but with what the many analysts and experts assess as the decisive fact for the forthcoming developments in Serbia, Yugoslavia and further afield - much further than the territory of the former Yugoslavia. To illustrate the significance of this subject, suffice it to recall that the only visit Yugoslav President Dobrica Cosic (this is as much as is known to the public) paid was to the officers.

On the other hand, it is clear that the relations between the Yugoslav civilian and army leaderships intertwine with some other relations, primarily with the Serbian leadership. The Montenegrin leaders, albeit offended at not having the prime minister's chair, are praising Prime Minister Panic conspicuously and at the top of their voices. Dragoljub Micunovic (Democratic Party President) said the same thing on Wednesday evening, only he gave a more candid explanation: Panic's program is good because it is very different from (Serbian PM) Bozovic's policy. Borisav Jovic (Socialist Party of Serbia President) also said something worth mentioning: "We brought Cosic and Panic." Informed political circles maintain that Jovic was Panic's right-hand man when the federal government was being formed. Panic had his greatest help on the eve of the Federal Parliament session when Serbian Foreign Minister Vladislav Jovanovic joined the list, and after midnight Aleksandar Mitrovic, hitherto Deputy Federal Prime Minister, when called thanked Panic for asking him to accept one of the three posts of deputy federal prime minister.

Saying almost in passing that he will give the Serbian Government a few more months in which to pursue its economic policy, Panic left Serbian Prime Minister Radoman Bozovic to stew in his own sauce. Panic is engaged in creating conditions for normal politics in all spheres, i.e. stopping the war and lifting the blockade, and Bozovic is about the pick the fruit of the economic life of his design.

To illustrate how the doctor of economic sciences Bozovic plans to do that, let us mention some good news that could be read or heard almost from all sides on Thursday and Friday. It goes: according to official information, inflation in the first ten days of June was halved compared to the same decade of the previous month. The main contribution to such a turn was made by the Serbian Government measures and the lowered green market prices. This would be more than comical were it not tragic. Let us recall that it is customary to calculate price rises on a monthly basis and not for shorter periods of time, and what is published as a monthly report represents a statistical observation of prices from the 20th day of one month to the 20th day of the next month. Therefore, even if the Serbian Government, desperate for some sign of success, forced statistics to measure inflation in a ten day span it would natural first to report on the inflation trend in the last decades of May and June. The suppression of this fact can only mean that it does not suit Bozovic, and this, in the mildest of terms, says that the data for the next ten days are greatly distorted. But, space and the readers' time should not be wasted on such tricks, because it is known anyhow that the Bozovic Government is pursuing a policy of abolishing inflation by abolishing prices.

If this same subject is transferred to the domain of Serbian President - Yugoslav Prime Minister, then one must say that not even the richest imagination could guess what Slobodan Milosevic was feeling while Milan Panic spoke, literally above his head, words that were hard to swallow - even if it were all said for strategic reasons. It is simply too much for the ears of Milosevic's MPs and Milosevic's most beloved opposition MP (Seselj) to hear Panic say in one breath that there is no hatred between the Yugoslav peoples and point out the erroneous policies, recall over a million mixed marriages and the fate of their children, reject the creation of ethnically pure territories and states, announce all the necessary moves for recognizing all states created on the territory of former Yugoslavia and for establishing relations on the level of states up to a customs union (for the beginning), intimate amnesty for all who were proclaimed traitors because they did not want to fight for national states and policies and trials for war criminals, elections as soon as possible and reinstating confidence in the elected authorities, freedom of the press...

Panic was elected Yugoslav Prime Minister. It is good that he himself asserted, at the end of his inaugural speech, that the real results of the Yugoslav Government will be measured only according to what has been achieved. That Panic had much less freedom that intimated in forming the government is less important than the space and real authority which the Serbian regime is giving him.

In any event, there are many unknowns to forecast further developments. Perhaps the greatest novelty is that one can no longer spend years, or months, in uncertainty.

Zoran Jelicic

Note

Without Zivorad Kovacevic

Among Panic's ministerial candidates, in addition to the others that did not figure on the official list, was Zivorad Kovacevic whom Serbia recalled as Yugoslav Ambassador to the United States of America in 1989. Neither side wishes to say anything about this unbelievable candidacy. By all accounts, Panic did not consult anybody but the candidate for the post of foreign minister, which imposes a series of questions - from the serious attitude of the prime minister designate to his real intentions.

What is interesting in the latter is how long will Panic have to keep convincing Washington's state and financial authorities of his real intent to implement his policy. In other words, what kind of and how much support did Panic get with the permission to take over as prime minister in Yugoslavia. Judging by the movements of the warships, Panic would more than welcome a person who enjoyed such a reputation as Kovacevic did in America. Perhaps he would equally welcome America's engagement in Zagreb and Sarajevo.