Conspiracy Theories

Vuk Draskovic and 16 more opposition leaders will lead demonstrations in March all over Serbia.  The anti-regime parties showed that they could, at least after six-hour-long negotiations, eliminate their vanities and sign the documents, which for the first time outline a clear strategy for changing the regime, and herald a coherent alternative to Milosevic's politics.   The parties of the Vojvodina Serbs and Hungarians and the Sandzak Muslims also agreed about the aims and instruments for doing this.  
These are the results of the opposition summit held on January 10 at the initiative of the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO).  It did come late, because a lot of time had been lost on wrong strategies, easy promises and lack of coordination, but maybe it did not come too late.   The condition for success certainly is that the pink cloud of good will, which was hovering around this gathering of the opposition leaders, does not disperse before anything has been achieved.

EVERYBODY, EVERYBODY: What nourishes our hopes that this time failure will not occur, is the decision -- made for the first time -- to institutionalize the opposition's cooperation by forming several coordination bodies.  Although it is still unknown who they will consist of and how they will operate, these bodies are supposed to coordinate their common appearance both in the country and abroad.  

It is relatively surprising that literally each participant at the meeting to whom "Vreme" was talking, believed that this time the opposition parties would remain together and would win the confidence of the voters.  Everyone is absolutely aware that the situation is extremely serious, while the forms of the regime propaganda suggest without any doubt how the regime will act in the future.  The universal opinion is that our backs are to the wall, so no one will dare jump off this train.

So, how come that the party leaders are so optimistic when so far they used to fight among themselves like cats and dogs?

COLUMNS:  One of them promptly replied: "Here are two illustrations - firstly, there was not a more cooperative person at the gathering than Batic, and secondly, Vuk Draskovic was not acting as a leader at all, but rather as a very correct mediator of a meeting.  He also offered each participant of the gathering to express his views every evening for one hour on Studio B TV.

Nevertheless, not everything was ideal.  Zoran Djindjic (Democratic Party - DS) and Goran Svilanovic (Serbian Civic Alliance - GSS) did not attend the gathering, although they had been invited by Draskovic.  But, immediately after the meeting Djindjic stated that it was an "important step in a good direction" and expressed his readiness to meet the SPO leader.  Also, Dragoslav Avramovic and Velimir Ilic did not attend the summit, but it did not spoil the impression that the relevant opposition parties were assembled.  Another positive outcome of the meeting was the crystallization of four opposition groups, which will supposedly "march towards a common goal," keeping their subjectivity intact.  They are SPO, Alliance for Changes (led by DS, GSS and Demo-Christian Party), Alliance of Democratic Parties (Social-Democratic Union, Reformist-Democratic Party of Vojvodina, League of Vojvodina's Social-Democrats, Alliance of Vojvodina's Hungarians, Coalition "Sumadija" and Coalition "Sandzak") and Coalition "DAN (New Democracy, Democratic Alternative and Democratic Center).

THE COURT: Although Zarko Korac (Social-Democratic Union) mentioned the politeness comparable to the one at the "Spanish Court," some other participants stated that at the beginning the atmosphere was quite tense.  According to a party leader, everyone at the meeting was presented with an accomplished fact, but in spite of the restraint pragmatism prevailed, as well as the comprehension that it is better to sign the served documents than to part in discord.  

Naturally, there were some small incidents.  For example, Nenad Canak (League of Vojvodina's Social Democrats) asked Vuk Draskovic who authorized him to be the personnel commission of the opposition, i.e., to decide which parties are democratic and should be invited to the gathering.  However, the only real quarrel broke between two estranged leaders of the Vojvodina parties, Nenad Canak and Dragan Veselinov, but because of their own grudges rather than the documents offered by SPO.

The last to decide on signing the document was Vojislav Kostunica, president of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), who explained his hesitation by necessity to consult with his party organs, but finally, he too, did sign the documents.   The only one who did not sign was General Momcilo Perisic, the leader of the Movement for a Democratic Serbia, who explained that first of all Milosevic's resignation should be requested in the Federal Assembly.  Perisic, however, promised to cooperate with the opposition in everything that had been agreed upon, while Draskovic explained at the subsequent press conference that the predominant opinion was that one should not give legitimacy to the illegitimate federal assembly by requesting Milosevic's withdrawal.  

REQUESTS:  One of the participants told us that it was not so important what had been offered (although not negligible), but that it was more important that they all accepted the documents, in which the word "common" was used very often.  In the document entitled "The Agreement on Common Strategy of the Fight for Extraordinary Democratic Elections," the opposition requested from the President of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the Socialist Party of Serbia, the President of the Assembly and the government of Serbia, to agree to scheduling early democratic elections on all levels until the end of April of this year.

To tell the truth, many opposition parties have on many occasions requested the same since the fall of 1999, and the regime has not given any sign that it might accept these initiatives.  However, according to what a senior opposition member told us, the opposition must insist on this request simply to show its adherence to a legal, peaceful solution.  
The new thing in this agreement of the opposition is that it has been clearly defined for the first time what the opposition will do in case that Milosevic did not once again agree to hold the elections, and it is most probable that he will not.  The opposition leaders have signed that they will make joint appearances in the public and in the local media explaining their common strategy, with the purpose to reinvigorate the people's energy, and instigate the "people's hope."  On top of that, in March joint protests will be organized in Belgrade's streets and squares, as well as in other towns of Serbia, and they will go on until the requests for elections have not been fulfilled.  The draft document mentioned March 9 as the first day of the demonstrations, but the opposition decided not to opt for a precise date, because the whole action might lose credibility if out of some reason they had to postpone the date for a few days.

The documents request legal actions to be undertaken against the assassins and the organizers of the crimes on the Ibar road and against Slavko Curuvija, the stopping of all acts of the state terrorism and lawlessness, as well as the annulment of the Information and the University Laws.  The signatories obliged themselves that they would not cooperate with the regime and that they would play fairly in their mutual relations.  

LETTER ON INTENTIONS: The opposition leaders have signed another document, which will be sent to the ministers of the European Union, the U.S., Russia and China, requesting the abolishment or suspension of all sanctions and the renewal of FRY's full-fledged membership in OSCE, as soon as an agreement on elections has been signed between the authorities and the opposition.  Also, even before that, humanitarian aid and social help should be sent to the refugees and other impoverished social groups in Serbia and Montenegro.  

The second part of this document is in fact the opposition's "letter on intentions," in which it is said that the newly-formed government after the victory of the opposition, will immediately achieve an agreement on equal legal position of Serbia and Montenegro within FRY, that they will reinstate diplomatic relations with the U.S.A., Great Britain, France and Germany, perform urgent political-economic reforms and coordinate the legal system of FRY with the one of EU, thus providing conditions for Serbia's and FRY's inclusion in the Pact for the South-Eastern Europe Stability.  In addition to that, individual rights of all national communities will be respected, with a trend towards development of the local and regional self-management.  The European officials have immediately welcomed this meeting of the opposition.

A special part of this document has been devoted to Kosovo, and that part of Serbia's problems acquired a special dimension because of Bishop Artemije's and Momcilo Trajkovic's presence at the opposition meeting.  The document requests the return of the YA (Yugoslav Army) and the Serbian police to Kosovo, in accordance with the signed agreement and the Resolution 1244 of the UN Security Council, which provides that KFOR is to protect FRY's borders with Macedonia and Albania, a decisive action against the Albanian extremists, and the proclamation of local self-management for the Serbs, Roms, Gorans and Muslims, based on the canton principle.  When and if they take the power, the opposition parties promise to fight for the reconciliation of the Serbs and the Albanians and to build a multi-ethnic and multi-confessional Kosovo within the borders of the democratic FRY.

GRACANICA:  Raska-Prizren's Bishop Artemije immediately invited the opposition leaders to come to Gracanica and meet there both with the Serbs and the representatives of the international forces, while Momcilo Trajkovic explained the expectations of the Serbian National Council (SNV).  He said: "While Milosevic continues to disunite the remaining Kosovo Serbs on the ideological basis, and manipulates with their misfortune, it is time that the new democratic Serbia takes of the direct responsibility for the destiny of the Kosovo Serbs, i.e., to get directly involved in the solving of the Kosovo crisis and establish cooperation with the international community."
The opposition leaders say that it is unrealistic to expect that they will become the key factor for making decisions on the Kosovo crisis, but it would be a great success if they managed to begin talks with the international community, since they are aware that no one among the foreign factors has ever communicated with anybody from Serbia regarding this topic.  This might be considered an achievement equal to the already achieved opposition's takeover of the diplomacy from the regime, but this has not been discussed with any foreign officials so far, and this possibility is quite uncertain.

It is very difficult to opt for any kind of optimism on the political scene of Serbia, but if one has in mind that the public opinion researchers assess that the opposition currently has more reserves in the electoral body than the ruling parties, since the majority of the undecided and the abstinents would vote against Slobodan Milosevic, one might conclude that by organizing this gathering the opposition parties improved their chances for winning the elections.   It is not so little, but very few people would swear that it is enough.

"Vreme"'s Poll

Can Croatia's Experience Help Serbia's Opposition?

Jadranka Jelenkovic:  I'm afraid it cannot.  If we were capable of learning from somebody else's errors and successes, we probably would not be where we are now.

Nikola Meseterovic:  I hope so.

Dragoljub Panajotovic:  I think that the Socialists and the Radicals will again be stronger than the opposition, even if it were united in one party.

Milovan Jankovic:  My son, I am not involved in politics for years.  I am not interested in anything, so don't ask me anything.

Djordje Parkan:  After ten years, Croatia and Serbia, are two different worlds.  I don't think that you can simply copy things. Croatia's political scene is something completely different.  To my mind, everything depends on Vojislav Kostunica.  If he gets closer to Draskovic, these two parties with Alliance for Changes might make a balance against the ruling coalition.

These are five characteristic replies from the poll performed by "Vreme" on the pattern of fifty citizens of Serbia.  As many as 69 percent of the interrogated people believe that Croatia's experience will have a positive impact on Serbia's opposition. 20 percent do not believe it, and others are not interested, they don's have any opinion about that, or they are mainly "not involved in politics."