Atmospheric Breadcrumbs

The Western Europe and America are firmly resolved to be of assistance in preventing Slobodan Milosevic's regime from winning the coming elections. Although determined to help the democratic forces in Serbia and all its citizens, the international association will not allow something that had happened in 1997 to repeat this time - the spectacular sale of the Serbian Telecom, which enabled the local authorities to amass almost one billion dollars and practically purchase the elections. Thus, on February 28th, at the meeting in Brussels, the EU Ministers of Economy and Finances will formally lift the embargo on air traffic imposed on Serbia for the period of six months, extend the list of the unwanted citizens of Yugoslavia, intensify the financial sanctions against the regime and its close associates, against the economy and the banks, but sign the decision on expanding the humanitarian program - Energy for Democracy.

FURTHER PRESSURES: For this apparently schizophrenic situation, the European Trade Commissary, Chris Patten has quite a coherent explanation: 'The extension of the list of unwanted Yugoslav citizens and the intensification of financial sanctions against companies, banks and businessmen which strengthen Milosevic's regime is in function of imposing pressure on him. We shall inform our companies to refrain from making business contracts with those companies, which does not stop us to help and facilitate the life of the Serbian citizens', said Patten after the last conference of the EU Ministry Council, conveyed by 'Reuters'. On the other side, the program Energy for Democracy can, indirectly, be treated as a mechanism which helps the democratic opposition in Serbia, just as the decision of the EU to approve of the demand for removing the embargo on international air traffic with Yugoslavia. The British Minister of Foreign Affairs, Robin Cook was even more concise in explaining that move of the EU: 'There will be no retreat on our part concerning Milosevic and his regime.'

The group of the unwanted on the territory of EU, which currently consists of 600 citizens of Yugoslavia - statesmen, politicians, businessmen, bankers, editors and journalists of the state media - will be widened for about 200 new names. This was confirmed to VREME by Novak Sneider, an official of the EU Headquarters in Brussels who was, by the way, directly involved in composing this list. He, however, refused to name those people 'since the list is not yet complete', adding that it will include names of former ministers of all governments, businessmen and bankers, the rank of which is lower than that of all general managers and executive managers (which are already on the list). Estimating that, in this way, the circle around Milosevic is getting tighter, our conversationalist says that it is about those people which are likely to contribute to strengthening and survival of the Belgrade regime, including the military personnel, the police and judiciary.

Any extension of the list, according to his words, increases the potential number of those who will complain for being included in it. Michael Graham, the chief delegate of the European Committee in Belgrade says: 'There were some complaints about the list and initiatives towards excluding certain names, but it was not too serious altogether. We had some instances of the change of identity, as well as some cases of people which had long ago belonged to the regime, but now have nothing to do with it.' That is, for example Bozidar Gazivoda, the former governor of the National Bank of Yugoslavia, and the current leader of the Montenegro Monetary Council.

According to Patten's words, the list will comprise those people whose companies and banks are already under financial sanctions, the intensification of which is also expected. The EU has so far been very cautious to avoid any investment in the Yugoslav economy. Apart from freezing the accounts of companies and banks which financed Milosevic's regime, as well as immobilising the personal funds of their managers (the members of the establishment are implicit), the EU will make impossible any insemination of the local money on its territory. That particularly refers to all Yugoslav exporters which used to keep their entire income on sale at the European market piled in foreign banks. Everything on those accounts will be blocked, and new deposits will be forbidden. To tell the truth, the VREME journalist did not manage to find an appropriate interviewee in Brussels which would answer the question: how come the local officials never complained about their frozen money abroad?

How does the decision on removal the air traffic embargo fit in all this - JAT is a stately run company and is not different from the Petrol Industry or the Electrical Industry of Serbia, which are under sanctions too?

NO PROFIT: First, it is about a temporary measure, restricted to six months only. Second, the EU intended to help the Serbian opposition to acquire a point on the domestic ground. It seems that it was successful, since the state media and other officials hushed up this decision. But little has been said about it, and it speaks for itself. Vojislav Seselj, leader of the Radical Party and Vice-President of the Serbian Government, stated that after the removal of sanctions to JAT, only the 'traitors' will fly 'to kiss the hand of some of their foreign patrons'. The state Radio-Television of Serbia conveyed a rather meager statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in which it is said that these sanctions were eliminated due to the pressure of other European airline companies, which are currently at loss. 'The European business circles are intending to change their course towards the American politics of sanctions, and they know it better than the European Committee', it is said in this notification.

As a financial expert from JAT claims, the European Union seems to have well calculated that the removal of air traffic embargo will not be of any profit to the owner of this company - the state itself. 'JAT will enjoy a little progress, but there can be no hope for the profit', our conversationalist explained. Milan Vujacic, the deputy director of JAT estimated that the company would have gained the profit of 20 million dollars in 1999, had there been no sanctions. The calculation of the company shows, however, that JAT is still at loss as long as the overseas destinations are blocked, and particularly those in America.

Before this issue of VREME is distributed and ready for sale, there will be a flight to Zurich - the first renewed European destination - but according to the calculations of financial experts, it will not improve the position of JAT, not will it be an opportunity for re-employing all of its six or seven thousand former employees. Firstly, JAT had originally been established to serve the former Yugoslavia, but since its territory got considerably reduced, and the population became noticeably impoverished, no one really intends to travel anywhere. As a joke, our interviewee remarks that the most regular airliners were actually those on the list of the unwanted in the EU. Secondly, at the time when JAT was a relatively serious airline company, the profit almost always depended on everyday flights to New York, Toronto, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Australia. That profit was enough to cover all such losses on short lines which, to make it clear, are made by all other airline companies. What is more, during the sanctions JAT was obliged to have the fleet maintained, which caused enormous expenses. In the meantime, the airplanes became ready for revitalisation, for which the money also lacks. The sources of VREME in JAT claim that, in the Summer of 1998, which was shortly before the introduction of another package of sanctions referring to Kosovo, the company intended, though with the aid of a foreign partner, to purchase six 'Erbas' airplanes '319', at the cost of 35 million dollars. In return, the foreign partner would have become the owner of one part of the company, which would have also suited the domestic partner. Even after the removal of sanctions, JAT will have to be content with breadcrumbs, which means the income acquired by renting the fleet and the crew, just as the state apparatus relies on humanitarian aid from China, having in mind that Bellorussia is not in a situation to help.