For the Love Of the People

Typically, in answer to Tudjman's statement that he does not see any serious opponent in Croatia who could replace him, another seven candidates registered for the presidential elections. Before closing the list of candidates, two had to withdraw - Drago Stipac, leader of the Peasant's Party, and Branko Horvat, president of the newly formed Social-Democratic Union, because neither collected the ten thousand signatures required for nomination. Racan's ex-communists announced a surprise while gathering signatures for Zdravko Tomac - and then the surprise turned into resignation. Tomac said that he could not fight against Tudjman.

Here are those who have remained in the game for the love of the people and their confidence: Drazen Budisa, a young and rising Liberal's leader; Ivan Cesar, the rather subdued president of the Christian Democrats; Savka Dabcevic-Kucar, the vigorous president of the Croatian People's Party; Silvije Degen, Zagreb lawyer and vice president of the Socialist Party; Dobroslav Paraga, leader of the radical and rising Croatian Party of Rights; Marko Veselica, a long-term political prisoner and leader of the Croatian Democratic Party; Antun Vujic, president of one of the social-democratic parties and the only one who did not have to become a socialist in order to do penance for his communist sins.

If the elections are fair, it would be very difficult for Tudjman to achieve the success he imagines. That his charisma is shaky is apparent in the hasty nature of the elections. Croatia did not get what its government has been asserting and the votes have to be reaped quickly, before people discover the hoax.

A difficult and uncertain autumn awaits Croatia - the war is not over although the President recently said that it is, the state is facing an economic collapse - not only because the war is expensive but also because the devastated Croatia is now becoming a vast refugee camp.

According to public opinion polls Savka Dabcevic-Kucar and Drazen Budisa (with Dobroslav Paraga at their heels) stand some chance in the race for the presidential throne. It is claimed that international forces are behind the first two, and they are finding the current president of Croatia an increasing obstacle to resolving the crisis in the region. Dabcevic-Kucar reportedly is supported more by the Americans, while the German liberals lead by Croatia's beloved Hans Dietrich Genscher favor more Budisa. Allegedly this German, who has done so much for Croatia, is now concerned about the democratic "image" of his protegee country. When he met with Budisa in Ljubljana recently, he even agreed to appear with him on the election poster with the inscription: Genscher, too, is a liberal.

The Croats abroad are also expected to bear influence in the elections but it is not quite clear who will get their votes. The emigrants who left Croatia at the end of WW II remained true to their beliefs of the times so that even today they prefer more the radical Croatian variants. Those who have learned something from the world are flabbergasted by the democracy which the Croatian President is implementing.

Tudjman's lust for power is becoming counterproductive and his present strength is in the gap, where somebody else's charisma is not rising while his own is dissolving.

The closest and most similar to Tudjman is Savka Dabcevic-Kucar. Her election slogan is: Croatia can do better, which probably means that she has to offer only a gradation of the preceding. It is not a coincidence that her posters are being commented on in the form of five pointed red star stickers that have also started to adorn the posters of the ruling party and the current president. It is believed that Paraga's Party is trying to discredit them because they insist on their being no ex-communists on their list. But anti-communism has lost the impact it had at the previous elections and is not in vogue. Dabcevic-Kucar shows that she could probably do better than Tudjman - her party and the ruling one are the most organized and industrious; she demands private ownership as the foundation of the present state controlled economy, she declares herself against a hypertrophied presidential system, she demands the freedom of the media instead of censorship and restrictions. However, she and her party, almost as popular as the ruling Croatian Democratic Union, probably will get the votes of those who are disappointed with Tudjman. Those who had trusted the father of the nation are now calling for the mother's lap. It seems that Savka is exploiting this - one of her election posters says "Democracy is in its infancy - give the child to its mother".

Budisa has something that neither Dabcevic-Kucar nor Tudjman have - he is young, a new man for new times. Although in his political concept the national element still prevails over the liberal (some of it is partly campaign tactics) Budisa and his party, mostly young and educated professionals, are upholding their principles which in these times that lack such virtue reflect in increased ratings. According to some opinion polls, if he reaches the second round he might even beat Tudjman. Contrary to Tudjman who advocates national reconciliation while showing open antagonism towards the opposition, Budisa is probably the only presidential candidate who could win the votes of Paraga's supporters and urban Serbs.

The outcome of the elections will be decided by the election laws, the tailoring of the constituencies and similar manipulations fashioned to the advantage of the unscrupulous ruling party. Secondly, the public - but actually state controlled - media, particularly TV, have lately been imposing a total information blockade in Croatia to protect the government from any shadow of doubt. The newspapers and TV have kept silent about the contents of President Bush's letter to Franjo Tudjman and are suppressing the fact that Croatia is threatened by sanctions which - if introduced - could be as decisive for the outcome of the elections as a military intervention in Serbia could become a political triumph for Tudjman.