Forthright Directness

Walter Lipman, the giant of American journalism during the fifties, once wrote that a society cannot be governed with the aid of episodes, incidents and eruptions.  This referred to the relative impotence of the press in the public sphere in the absence of politically active citizens who are ready to judge and to act.  While this article is being written, all independent media in Serbia have their eyes and ears directed toward what the unified Serbian opposition will decide in its summit.  Will there be a meeting.  At the initiative of Coalition DAN, leaders of that Coalition (Dusan Mihajlovic, Nebojsa Covic and Dragoljub Micunovic) met with Dragan Veselinov, leader of Coalition Vojvodina at the headquarters of Coalition Vojvodina with a view to establishing closer ties and intensifying cooperation within the unified democratic opposition.  SPO Spokesman Ivan Kovacevic announced that his party will submit a proposal for a general meeting to be held by the end of March, for that meeting to be held in Belgrade on Liberation Square under the slogan of "Stop to Terror", and that a plan should be made for organizing this meeting over a several day period.  Coordinator of the Alliance for Changes (SZP), Vladan Batic, stated that the opposition must begin organizing civil disobedience...  The Democratic Reform Party of Vojvodina (RDSV) proposed that the meeting begin on March 28, the day when the present Serbian Constitution was adopted.  Milorad Jovanovic, Spokesman for the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) repeated his party's position that the timing for the meeting should be chosen wisely, that attention should be drawn to developments in and around our country, and that this above all refers to the NATO maneuvers in Kosovo.
JUST AS LONG AS:  The Democratic Party of Serbia believes that the regime has proven its intention of carrying through to the end its operation of stifling the media which are not under its control and that a clear and decisive reaction by the democratic opposition must follow.  The Democratic Party (DS) warns that taking over of the TV Kraljevo transmitter by the regime is the last signal for unified action by the opposition.  This Party is demanding a swift, unified response on urgent forming of crisis headquarters in various communities with the objective of protecting independent television and radio stations and their equipment, as well as on organizing meetings in central squares of cities throughout Serbia.  The Movement for a Democratic Serbia is also talking about crisis headquarters.

The regime's attack on the media appears as a kind of flexible testing of forces.  After Studio B paid the imposed tax it has not been bothered since, but its confiscated equipment has also not been located yet.  The Municipal Government of Belgrade is insistent in asking, day in and day out, what happened to the three percent sales tax and contribution for the renewal of the country which the government set after the war and which is not being returned under various excuses.  After several days of protests in Kraljevo, the Federal Ministry for Telecommunications announced that equipment will be returned.  The speaker who announced this to demonstrators was met with whistles and jeers.

The situation is peculiar in a way that we are used to here.  Smaller parties and especially political groups which do not participate in elections keep clamoring: "Let's go!  Let's go!"  All eyes are on the SPO which, after considering everything it stands to lose if the opposition offensive flops, is announcing a spring beginning.  This party wanted to begin things on March 9, a highly symbolic day for the SPO, but was easily convinced to turn its back on that kind of symbolism under the present situation.  After a victory in the Democratic Party presidential election, Zoran Djindjic is disciplining his rivals within the party and is risking being accused of retaliation; appearing refreshed after last years knockdown, he appears like a boxer who has gathered strength for a new match, for a village to village and a door to door election campaign.

The demand being put forth to the opposition appears identical to the one that the Italian filmmaker, Frederico Fellini put forth to his composer, Nino Rota for the film Amarcord - "to take his time, but hurry up."  The objective of the opposition should not be to hold a meeting, but to win the next election.  And this means that the opposition must act with conviction and to force the regime into calling an early election, to ensure that they will be held in a normal atmosphere, which above all presumes that the independent media will all be left alone, but that in as much as possible, access to the state media, which the population at large is financing, should be allowed free access to.  Warmongering and the present state of verbal war must be put an end to.  Here, the propagandists of a decrepit regime have managed to turn the table for god knows what time and to begin a debate on whether the independent media here exist at all, and what they are independent from.  They are staging witch hunts in printing houses and are appropriating TV transmitters on the peaks of Serbian mountains.  The independent media must once again prove that they are not battling for the interests of their sponsors, but for the interests of those who have nothing, a poor public.  The Government must be held accountable for the situation in the country; it must explain why it is not chasing killers and is staging witch hunts.  In a chain of neurotic moves, above all with the attack on television and radio stations which are independent of the government, the government appears to be testing whether its power really is as small as public opinion polls are indicating and whether this circumstance can somehow be annihilated and destroyed.  Public opinion polls constantly indicate increases in opposition support among voters who have been confounded and made poor by last year's war.  Voters are essentially patient and slow in permitting the government to make the post war maneuver of "creating a positive zero balance."  The latest polls by the Medium Agency, published this week, indicate that SPO is on par with SPS in public support.  Analysis of poll results indicate that the poor, that is to say those who spend less than a dollar per day, which makes more than a third of the population, still continue to be politically conservative and to be afraid of changes.  This is mostly because of the fear that things can only get worse, on top of which they have uncritical belief in the government media, Srdjan Bogosavljevic of Strategic Marketing stated last Monday at Belgrade's Press Club.

Bogosavljevic noted that "changes are not desired even by those who managed to pull through in this situation and to ensure a decent standard of living.  This are not criminals and the nuveau riche, but people who hold private businesses and who number between 280,000 and 380,000.  It is clear to them that the situation is not ideal by any means, as the government media keeps portraying, but they fear that changes would merely bring in new problems that would be difficult to solve.  Those in favor of changes are mostly the former middle class, intellectuals who number around 300,000, but their support is far from being decisive."

The government is convinced that economic activities in the first months of this year have increased, even though this fact is based on 1998 figures, when a drop of as much as 56.4 percent in the economy was registered.  Slobodan Milosavljevic of the Institute for Market Research estimates that we are presently in a situation, in economic terms, in which we were in the years of hyperinflation in 1993, and that the GNP is even smaller this year by half a percent from where it was that year.  The fundamental question is how to convince the poor to leave the vicious circle of servitude.  This opinion has been articulated most specifically by Mr. Avramovic from the opposition, but his proposals are not well understood by the public or by the opposition itself.

UNIFIED BALLOT:  Of course, when the answer to the main question is uncertain, a discussion of the method remains.  The mystery is called "a unified ballot."  Everyone is talking about appearing on a unified ballot, with the smallest and weakest parties, as a rule, being most vociferous in this.  Things are only getting complicated by foreign interference.  The American Secretary of State, who is by definition incompetent to consider internal affairs of other countries, said in our last issue that she would like to see the Serbian opposition stand united behind a single leader, which is about as realistic as proposing that the American presidential system be replaced by the model of a collective presidency of the 1974 SFRY Constitution.

It is fairly clear that on a local level the opposition, if it want to win within the present system, must make a unified ballot.  The suggestion that ballots in certain cities be made independent of party headquarters has been thrown out by SPO, probably because of the need to keep unity within their party, and it is highly unlikely that this proposal will be accepted by any bitter party.

Just as it is clear that on the local level the opposition must make a single ballot, it is just as clear that this is not necessary for parliamentary elections, and that it is even undesirable because of negative synergy - because of the reservations that opposition voters of one party have toward the leaders of other opposition parties.  It is sufficient for the opposition to be grouped in large wholes in the parliamentary elections.  The problem of a single presidential candidate, which was the downfall of Coalition Zajedno, still remains.  The Monarchists are by no means a majority, judging by election results thus far.

The SPO announced that it will submit its proposal of a unified ballot, and that in the day that follows it will demonstrate generosity.  The Serbian Democratic Party keeps repeating the position that a unified list is not a good solution, but that it will not obstruct a debate on this.

When everything is summed up, we return to the question from the beginning of this article: will there be a meeting this spring.  Yes, there will.  On Wednesday, March 22, opposition leaders announced that they agreed to call a meeting for April 14, 2000, under the slogan of "Stop Violence - For Democratic Elections."  It must be kept in mind, however, that public affairs cannot be governed with incidents and eruptions.  Something more is necessary. Forthright directness.