Perfect Day For the Serbian Opposition

Stated in the Marques-like style, the clamor of the masses is spreading in the spring air like an epidemic, is coming in through the open windows and is irritating the generalissimos and his wife - all is about to blow, the authority of the Highest Place, the Platform of the Fourth Congress and the heavily guarded state secret: "The opposition exists!". Due to the never-ending postponements, the kids dubbed this April the 14th "the 45th  March" but, all jokes aside, it was an extremely good, possibly even a very good day for the Serbian opposition. The news of the day didn´t come from the speaker´s platform located where At Konj´s garden is, where the Cika Ljubina Street flows into the Republika Square, but rather from down below, from the mass of people who flooded this square and neighboring streets: Vasina, Francuska, Makedonska, Kolarceva, Knez-Mihailova, Terazije...  Prior to the beginning of the rally, your reporter spent fifteen minutes trying to get through from Ruski Car to Albanija. It might have been one of the largest opposition rallies held in Belgrade (there was a larger crowd only for Serbian New Year´s Eve in 1997), therefore the most important thing isn´t whether the initial assessment of your reporter that there were 120.000 - 150.000 people present in that space was realistic or whether the mass consisted of 200.000 people since, as we all know, one can never be certain when assessing such numbers - they usually vary in the regime - opposition relation 1:7. Regime media admitted that 35.000 people were present, which is a true accomplishment for them - the winter protests of 1996/97, during which, in 25 cities throughout Serbia, 700.000 people took part, were described with the words of "a handful" and "less and less"...

In any case, there were ten times more people than at the concert marking the one-year anniversary of the war organized by the regime, and at the February gathering of the Socialist Party of Serbia´s (SPS) congress supporters.

The pollster Srbobran Brankovic (all experts in this text are quoted on the basis of statements made in the Press Club of the Media Center on April 17, 2000, during a conversation with your reporter, on the subject of "The day after) believes that it was probably the most massive gathering held in Belgrade since 1989. He believes that this April 2000 rally had a similar therapeutical effect like the rally of March 9, 1992, marking the first anniversary of the March 9, 1991 demonstrations, when we had "just recovered from the first and most horrific phase of our illness, the first shock, first encounter with war, mobilizations, assaults, deportations to the war zone...". Following various horrendous threats in the shadows of war, the streets of Belgrade were emptied just like last year during the solar eclipse, only the opposition leaders met at the Svetosavski plateau.

Otherwise, 1992 will be remembered as the year of petitions, student protests, St. Vitus Day, i.e. massive celebration of the anniversary of the 1389 battle of Kosovo, the round table of the government and the opposition and by the thus far most serious election challenge (Milan Panic versus Slobodan Milosevic).

Does last week´s protest signify a turning point?

Srbobran Brankovic notes that the response "which exceeded even the most optimistic expectations in the opposition and the blackest doubts in the pinnacle of the government" ascertains the findings of the public opinion pollsters: "As of January 2000 we have started noticing for the first time that the majority of the people are starting to believe that the opposition will win the elections. The belief in the possibility of a victory is important for the continuation of a movement. We are also noting a constant dwindling of regime supporters and after this rally a true erosion of ruling party support could unfold", states Brankovic.

Brankovic immediately mentions the weak points of that rally - the speeches, he says, were long and boring, the leadership crisis was floating in the air, people seem to have been juggling with Milosevic´s: "Here I am, here you are..." and turning it into "Here we are, but what about you?". A young colleague notes that the opposition leadership didn´t transmit instructions for any concrete action to its supporters except: "We´re together, see, this is what we are, praise us!"

Vladimir Vuletic, assistant at the Department of Sociology at the School of Philosophy, notes that impatience is a bad ally in any deal - changes are imminent, a potential in the electorate exists, the opposition has understood that it has to go step by step, and it made its first small step last Friday. For the majority of the people in Serbia only one thing is important at this moment, and that is to replace the existing regime by elections. They have emphasized this demand and will now, in the near future, await a reply from the regime. If no answer ensues - they´ll repeat it. Vuletic notes that giving promises for the future could be counter-productive, since 16 different parties which are now united have different ideas on what should be done "after", and a discussion on that could lead to cracks amongst the ranks of the opposition.

The thesis stating that a nation has the government it deserves has often been manipulated with. Vuletic says that analysis and election results in the last five years show that the ruling group in Serbia actually has less support than former communists in any of the former socialist countries. The conclusion ensues that changes can be expected in Serbia during this year - in case no major schism racks the opposition again.

Vuletic notes that the ruling parties have partially consolidated since last autumn - gone are the occurrences of last autumn when people from the mid-level hierarchy were "looking for contacts" and ways to somehow become part of the winning clique. However, that is no longer relevant now since all polls show that the ruling coalition doesn´t have more than 20-25 percent followers. Elections which would take place would undoubtedly bring about a change of government. In all honesty, the speakers at that manifestation weren´t as bad as some say they were. There weren´t many swear words and threats aimed at their political rivals, apart from those uttered by certain outsiders. Many will note that "there´s nothing new" in those speeches. There isn´t, nor can there be: "They are killing us, beating us up, arresting us, deporting us, and we´re living in poverty and shame" (Vuk Draskovic), "The regime has turned Serbia into a damned country..." (Vladan Batic); "The government has turned the army, police, television and factories into their toys" (Dragoljub Micunovic). What is the opposition asking for? Elections at all levels, according to Draskovic, "less important local ones, important republic ones and most important, presidential ones..." What shall we do? "Until they leave we shall continue to meet both here and throughout Serbia..." (Draskovic) or, paraphrasing Churchill "We shall fight in the fields...", an announcement that the opposition shall fight in the squares, market places and conference halls (Zoran Djindjic) and never surrender.

And what will that new government be like? Vojislav Kostunica: "Our mandate will be restricted, the power limited - that´s democracy."

That public knows their gags by heart, knows their relations, is aware of their faults, but is still applauding their games with no scores, just like we used to cheer OFK Beograd (a Yugoslav football team renown for its beautiful game and poor results). No wonder the people were showing that it was more important for them just to be present at the square than to  hear anything. Not even political science students would, standing in the crowd, listen for hours even if Cicero himself was the speaker. An analysis of the contents would show a certain new seriousness in the rhetoric, the call of the oratorical pathos was less pronounced and more emphasis was placed on political classics (books and political advisers!). Which doesn´t mean that there was no interaction between the speakers and the public (flags, pyrotechnics and chants, whistles and answers thrown back at the speakers: "Do you know better than these people? Do you?" "We do, why are you asking us now..."). Vladimir Vuletic, assistant at the Department of Sociology at the School of Philosophy, notes that it is apparent that no personnel changes have occurred in the opposition and that could be a hindrance, however that circumstance isn´t crucial.

Otherwise, the most effective poster (there weren´t many) prior to this year´s rally was put up by Resistance (Otpor). Below the enlarged fist only one thing was written, relatively accurately, full of foreboding for some: "It´s spreading!"

Marija Babovic, assistant at the Department of Sociology at the School of Philosophy, notes that the April protest in downtown Belgrade confirms last year´s research that the social basis of the protests in Serbia is constantly spreading. She has before her data from polls conducted during the summer at the protests and during the autumn of 1999 on a general sample, along with analysis from the 96/97 protest. A sociological analysis recognized three relatively separate, in themselves coherent parts, three categories of citizens which are clearly separated by their relation toward change and ways in which to actively take part in those changes.

Last year the population which took part in the protests was divided into two parts - into participants who were found at the protests by the pollsters; and into those who would like to take part in those protests, amongst these 60 percent had taken part in previous protests.

Marija Babovic says the poll showed that in one type of protest the middle class is dominant and is later joined by students or so-called intermediary classes made up of technicians, students etc... That is characteristic for protests in Belgrade, Pancevo and Nis... In the other typical case the middle class is joined by workers in exceedingly large numbers which is characteristic for Zrenjanin, Valjevo and Leskovac...

When talking about the social nucleus of those opposed to change, meaning the bastion of the current regime, it is more homogenous than the movement for change - in all cities pensioners prevail, with Zrenjanin in the lead where pensioners make up almost 70 percent of that nucleus and - Belgrade workers, who are represented as one of the most important strongholds of the regime (a quarter of the regime supporters in Belgrade). On the other hand, more pensioners take part in the protests in Belgrade than in other cities.

The losers of the transition amongst whom the regime is still finding support, pensioners and workers, are firmly integrated into the state and socially-owned firms, a very small number of them works for the private sector; they are most often on forced leave of absence unlike those who are actively taking part in the protests, however they have far more regular payments even though they claim they can´t cover their basic living expenses with them.

The social group which makes up the regime´s stronghold has practically no action potential - over 70 percent of them isn´t ready to take part in the rallies and protests, let alone to suffer consequences such as loss of a job or confrontation with the police. Over 90 percent of them aren´t prepared to make any sacrifices. We can surmise that the army and the police are on their side, however the government would find it very difficult to mobilize the citizens to fight for the survival of the regime. It is evident that even amongst the regime supporters there are many who are more than prepared to harshly criticize the policies of Slobodan Milosevic and who believe that SPS is responsible for the crisis which has been going on for too long. On the basis of all of that, Marija Babovic concludes that even in the strongest base of the regime, significant cracks have appeared... The largest part of the population is somewhere between these two groups - ambivalent social participants who express their clear interest in social changes but are not prepared to join the protests and rallies. This group is made up of former protest participants, today´s sceptics, disappointed by previous protests and former supporters of the regime and of president Milosevic... In this category there are a number of intermediary layers, white-collar employees, technicians, manual workers - by orientation, they are closer to the movement for change, while by their action potential they are, as Marija Babovic deduces, closer to the social basis of the regime stronghold.

Srbobran Brankovic thinks that the regime media´s campaign will continue against the rally, however he doesn´t expect this campaign to produce the required results. A large part of the population has become immune to this propaganda means seen for the umpteenth time and to the never proven disqualifications. That won´t be able to weaken the opposition mood nor will it strengthen the pro-government mood - it will only keep a part of the electorate which votes for the ruling parties anyway cohesive.

Can, for example, the Serbian radicals profit in such a complicated situation?  Brankovic doesn´t foresee a rosy future for them. "The contradictory position of the Serbian radicals makes a parallel with the Weimar Republic impossible. If someone is dissatisfied, he is dissatisfied with the way the country is governed, and that government is made up of Serbian radicals as well. Support for the ruling party is dwindling whatever that party had meant and whatever attire it dons." However, Brankovic says that "changes of heart are in no way impossible" which, provoked by some uncontrolled events, could mark out certain radical people, however the future for radical policies is unfavorable.

Vuletic notes that it is a battle for some twenty or so percent of the population which would eventually appear at the polling stations, however even with that additional number, at this moment or in the next few months, the ruling group simply doesn´t stand a chance at the elections.

Marija Babovic notes that a part of the citizenship which is prepared to fight for change won´t easily be swayed by eventual use of force which could prevent the elections. The regime cannot change the beliefs of these citizens and must keep in mind that neither the state-owned RTS nor repression will placate that part of the population. The only question is what type and how intense that confrontation would be.

Brankovic believes that the government will, after April 14, most probably have lots of reasons to contemplate its future steps. According to his assessment, the first sign that the government has taken into account the important fact that the opposition does exist is seen in the way they didn´t dare employ force. He expects that possibly certain lucid people in the government pinnacle could now start contemplating a change of strategy since they have now received clear proof that the strategy of violence and intimidation has had an opposite effect. "Even before this rally those disqualifying labels of traitors and NATO hirelings didn´t sound overly convincing, and now, following such opposition support, further insistence on it could only sound stupid", states Brankovic. He believes rational people in the top echelons of power could start thinking about a compromise, if not for the sake of the nation, then for their own sake, since it appears that a change is inevitable and it would benefit no one, especially those at the top, if it were to occur in a violent way. It´s possible that the regime could  try to open up secret negotiations with parts of the opposition, or to offer election conditions which would force some or all of the opposition parties to boycott them and would provide them with elections held without the opposition parties and with some kind of legitimacy.

However, taking into account the public mood, that is highly improbable. "The maturity of a society, its intelligence, political, economic, army (why not) elite and of its citizens is perceived by its capabilities to come out of such historical crisis with as little wounds as possible and without uselessly squandering energy" says Brankovic.

The responsibility of the opposition for a peaceful outcome now lies in their capability to demonstrate reasonable decisiveness, to raise their stakes and not to stop the action which, following all the delays and hesitations, has got off to a very good start. A victorious idea, organization, mass and movement is about to emerge. If the start looks like this, the end would have to be victorious.