Feigned Gullibility

Lord Carrington, obviously, will never get tired of talking with partners in the old and new Yugoslavias. Were he younger, he probably would have given up or thanked his European Community chiefs, because war in the Balkans is the worst place to make a diplomatic career. That is why some Western commentators concluded, as soon as Lord Carrington was appointed negotiator, that either Europe is not serious or it does not believe in the success of the negotiations. Lord Carrington is one of the greatest names in diplomacy, a man who has succeeded in untangling intricate crises, which is precisely why only such a person can agree to become infinitely and hopelessly involved with a country where madness has reached the highest echelons of emancipation.

Ostensibly, his name lent great importance to the tragedy here, but in effect, Lord Carrington was left to cope by himself and to rely on his own skills. He is not backed by any serious intentions, perhaps not even by the possibility of the Community tackling us as a place and nations it really cares about, particularly not as a part of its own territory. Greater determination and excitement revolved around Slovenia and Croatia, but it is clear now that Bosnia is the margin Europe will not go beyond.

The outbreak of war has nothing to do with Europe recognizing the independence of Bosnia-Herzegovina, as Belgrade often endeavors to prove. The desire was to deter and eliminate the threat of war, but all SAOs (Serbian Autonomous Regions) were formed and turned independent, and the war which was to link them was already planned and organized. Europe's recognition did not impress Serbian President Milosevic and leader of the Serbian Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina Karadzic who, it now turns out, correctly assumed this to be a bluff. The world was well informed about what happened and a correct diagnosis was made, but nobody was ready to risk effective therapy.

Milosevic, therefore, succeeded in what interested him above all and at all costs. With the weapons of the Yugoslav Peoples' Army, the Serbian forces conquered a sizable part of Bosnia-Herzegovina and are completing the operation of driving away the Muslims. Greater Serbia is smiling at him. For now, he is the undisputed winner over the so-called New World Order which, if it means anything at all, certainly does not envisage the world's helplessness before the scenes of utmost violence and crime.

They threatened to turn him out of their and every other society, and then did it, to an extent. His answer was: "Gentlemen, I don't care, I've got better things to do than keep you company." They sanctioned him as they had never sanctioned anyone before, but that encouraged the opposition only for a short while, and he welcomed the situation as he could now embark on imposing a state of emergency regime. Few people in Belgrade dare blame him for the sanctions in any case, and his television unmasks such persons with the greatest ease and pleasure.

He decided to sacrifice the economy a few years ago, and now, apparently, he is banking on patching the biggest holes made by the embargo with his neighbors' help. He is not wrong there either: Serbia is surrounded by paupers which are not too worried about their reputation, particularly if it is costing them. If he honestly thinks that Yugoslav President Cosic and Prime Minister Panic will be of any avail, then he should best know that they cannot help him as regards the sanctions. The major Western countries will continue their boycott of Serbia, i.e. "Yugoslavia", which will gradually become the smuggler's paradise. A country for smuggling and international crime of all kinds, which is also a branch of the economy and which provides a very comfortable living, as witness some South American examples.

With the small Yugoslavia, with Cosic and Panic as men who are trying to change something, Milosevic has tricked the world again, at least for as much as the world has punished him. The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia has not been recognized, but world statesmen and diplomats, such as Mr. Hurd and Lord Carrington, are meeting its leaders, both privately and unofficially, and Milosevic formally. They would like to support the ones they do not recognize, and not him. The mix-up is not to be believed.

It is apparent from the manner in which both Milosevic and Cosic smoothly and openly rejected Lord Carrington's proposal for an international conference on Kosovo that not only should one not look for major disputes between them, but also that self-confidence is saturating Milosevic. One could even say that he has started to realize that his cause in Bosnia is getting stronger and, what is even more important, that the West is gradually falling a victim of its own trap in this war.

Since they are not ready to intervene directly or to sell arms to anybody, Western governments are becoming the victims of their public opinions. They marked the culprits themselves; their public is being smothered by pictures of the Sarajevo tragedy, it is exerting pressure for something to be done, but they are unable. Peace-oriented diplomacy continues now when peace suits those they wanted to punish most.

Lord Carrington has said in Belgrade that everybody was responsible for the continuation of the war, but that at this moment the Muslim side was even more responsible. This is the side that is left practically without any territory, together with all the worthy Bosnians who were against this war. Will the West pursue a policy of peace until the last such Bosnian?

Nobody can be reproached for not wanting to take part in somebody else's war. Nobody can accuse the West of trying to prevent the war, and giving up when it turned out that normal resources were not enough. And finally, even humanitarian aid counts for something, no matter how cynical it may appear to the inhabitants of Sarajevo. "They're handing out Christmas presents, before we get killed", one of them told me. But the unclear conscience problem surfaces when politicians and diplomats start to conceal their helplessness and failure, for their own domestic reasons - to maintain their popularity ratings, to change the real state of affairs, lessen the tragedy and relativize the victims and culprits.

The logic that is starting to work for Milosevic, and for Croatian President Tudjman, is this: since nothing can be done for Bosnia, then the best thing is to befog the whole issue, make everybody equally responsible and lessen public pressure to stop the terror of war.

The West will resist accepting a fait accompli, but part of the media is already trying to boost even Milosevic's image, while Panic's empty promises are being received with feigned gullibility.

That the international community is showing signs of agreeing to attenuate its own principles when the war in Bosnia and the entire Yugoslav tragedy are concerned, is primarily an expression of indifference. In the past year, both sides realized they do not belong to each other. They do not understand our dissipation, aggressiveness and mendacity, while their responsibility and discipline are too heavy for us.

The separation is final, and it is the greatest price of the Serbian and Croatian warfare and conquests in Bosnia-Herzegovina. What are the victories, what the defeats and what kind of a balance has each side drawn up, are a matter of present and future evaluation. Time has changed old victories into defeats, and vice versa. They do say, however, that time is a Western category, and that the East is interested only in space.