Grim Prospects for Democracy in Croatia

Namely, with time, cracks will begin to show in this big accomplishment: a part of the territory has been lost, at least temporarily, Croatia is losing prestige on the international scene, and economic and social problems could cause upheavals by the fall and winter... These are the words of Zarko Puhovski, a Zagreb University professor and an indefatigable analyst of the developments in former Yugoslavia.

*Most criticism is directed against the electoral infrastructure: the law, the electoral polls, the definition of constituencies...?

That is a big problem. But the opposition is making a mistake by constantly talking about frauds. Frauds represent a problem when the system is all right in principle, but the so-called subjective factor is doing something illicit. Here, the anomalies in the system are so great that frauds are completely irrelevant. This is not irrelevant to individual parties, but it is completely irrelevant as regards the representation of people's will. The electoral polls are still undefined, it is not clear whether people without proof of citizenship can vote at the elections - if they can't, then 20% of the population is disfranchised, and if they can, then those who are not citizens of Croatia can vote as well, which again is a legal scandal. Some 10% of the population is on the occupied territories and in Serbia, and there is no way to organize the elections for them. The elections will not be organized for refugees in Slovenia either... At the same time, literally anyone abroad can vote. (...) Not to mention the scandal that someone who has never lived in Croatia, and does not intend to, has the right to decide who will be in power here.

*How does that affect the legitimacy of the elections?

In my opinion, these elections cannot be legitimate in the sense that they should be a reflection of the actual situation and the authentic political will of the Croatian people, that is, of the citizens of Croatia. I think that the world must be told that there are no conditions for fair elections in Croatia.

*There are also claims that these elections could prove to be very "dirty"?

I think that this is quite possible, but it seems to me that that is totally in accordance with the basic intent behind the elections. The purpose of the elections is above all - and this is the only thing Mr. Tudjman is interested in - for him to be the first President of Croatia elected by direct ballot. I am convinced that he is capable of giving away not only a part of the territory, but also letting his party lose, all to this end. In the same way that he was interested in the international recognition of Croatia, no matter whether the price was the loss of a part of the territory, regardless that Croatia is de facto in a position to receive orders from abroad, so now he is interested only in being elected President of Croatia.

*Can the outcome of the elections be forecast?

That would be very hard, because anything might happen. Namely, we should bear in mind that the electoral law prohibits propaganda activity on the day before the elections, but it does not prohibit a Croatian unit from storm into Baranja on the eve of the elections, and that would be very good propaganda for the ruling party. Therefore, with all these uncertainties and reservations, one may predict that only four parties will win seats in Parliament, i.e. get more than 3% of the votes. They are the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), the Croatian People's Party (HNS), the Mr. Budisa's Liberals and Mr. Paraga's Croatian Party of Rights (HSP). I believe that the HDZ could obtain a relative majority, and in my opinion, that would be the best thing in this situation. I am certain that Mr. Tudjman cannot lose the presidential elections, and I would be very glad if he should have to confirm his victory in the second round. The worst possible result would be for the HDZ to obtain a convincing majority, for it would generate a belief that the already existent totalitarian tendencies have become legitimate and they would then become consolidated in all spheres of life. And another that is to be feared is Mr. Paraga's party getting less than it expects, i.e. less than 8%, declares the elections a fraud, and mobilizes its men in order to achieve justice.

*Croatia after the elections?

I have been repeating the same thing over and over for months: I deeply believe that there is no chance of Croatia becoming a democratic country, a country in which one could live in a civilized way, if it does not have its pre-war borders. If Croatia becomes smaller, if it, for instance, loses Baranja or Ilok (a town in Western Srem), or if it becomes greater, expanding to parts of Herzegovina - there will be no trace of democracy. Revanchism would reign in former, and triumph in latter case. That does not mean that Croatia would necessarily be democratic if it had its pre-war borders, but without that, democracy does not stand the slightest chance. And since I am certain that these borders will not be re-established in foreseeable future, I am afraid that Croatia will not be able to function as a normal society for a long time.