Strategic Local Battle

Elections on June 11 in Podgorica and Herceg Novi, where a third of the population of Montenegro lives, are by no means of a local nature because of the relations in Montenegro itself, as well as because of relations between Podgorica and Belgrade.  A victory by the ruling coalition in Montenegro will fortify President Djukanovic's power, while a victory by Momir Bulatovic's Coalition Yugoslavia could result in early parliamentary elections.  Furthermore, as Vice president of the Socialist People's Party (SNP), Predrag Bulatovic stated, his party will insists on early parliamentary elections even if his party loses by a small number of votes.

In any case, this is a conflict between Milo Djukanovic and Momir Bulatovic, that is to say Slobodan Milosevic, who is also hardly indifferent as to the outcome of this election.  It is hard to say whether he was assured by promises made to him by Predrag Bulatovic and his associates, but it would appear that he is dissatisfied, judging by his TV appearance, with the fact that there are not great election meetings in Montenegro, as if wanting to say "what are you waiting for?"  The answer given to Milosevic, heard by those nearest to him was "we are waiting for you to come here so we can agree."  This set off passions in Montenegro, especially the statement by Predrag Bulatovic that President Milosevic promised him that he will come to Montenegro.

AGREEMENT AND CONFLICTS:  All this indicates that Milosevic is not giving up on the idea of regaining complete control over Montenegro and is using the Socialists People's Party, completely insignificant parties in Montenegro gathered under Coalition Yugoslavia (SRS, SNS, JUL,  Serbian Left Radical Party Nikola Pasic, and the Communist Party), and the Yugoslav to this end.  The impression gained is that this might be the final election which will completely marginalize Momir Bulatovic, not just in Montenegro, but in his own party, above all because a coalition with the Radicals and JUL resulted in inner conflicts which according to our sources within the SNP itself, resulted in an agreement that in the event that all those in favor of the coalition will voluntarily withdraw from that party in the event that it loses the elections.

Excluding the Liberal Alliance, all other parties and independent candidates in this election are transients.  Judging by several public opinion polls, the Liberals stand a change of registering better election results than last time and, as they stated, without a coalition with them a government cannot be formed.  The position of the Milo Djukanovic's Coalition "For a Better Life" is that they have sufficient power of their own not to have to enter into a coalition with the Liberals, nor will they be exposed to blackmail by the Liberals.  The SNP assesses that their victory is certain as long as the elections are free, fair and not rigged.

PROMOTION AND DEVELOPMENT:  The ruling coalition's conviction that they will sweep the election is bordering on bragging.  Miodrag Vukovic, President of the Executiv Council of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), states that the latest opinion poll indicates that the ruling coalition will get 39.5 percent of votes in Podgorica, while Bulatovic's coalition will get 25 percent, while the Liberals only stand to get eight percent in Podgorica. Vukovic indicates that proportions are similar in Herceg Novi, where DPS and the People's Party have formed a coalition that has several more percent voter support than Momir Bulatovic's Coalition Yugoslavia. "With the votes of the Social Democratic Party which is entering the election independently, we will have a stable government there also," Vukovic states categorically.

Besides making statements that victory is certain, the Bulatovic's Socialist People's Party did not offer a single argument in support of this statement.  For now it has been noted that SNP campaign rallies have been called off because of low attendance, while the Radicals, SNS and JUL are experiencing total fiascoes at their campaign rallies.  All this is topped by opinions from the ruling coalition that there is a possibility that Bulatovic's coalition might not even take part in the election, because they supposedly do not want to let their last chance for political power to be wasted in vain.  Even Predrag Bulatovic is mentioning every now and then the possibility of not taking part in the elections in the event that his party becomes convinced that the elections are not free, hones, democratic and lawful.  Such opinions are compounded by expectations of incidents.  The Government of Montenegro is seriously preparing for such a scenario, never ruling out the possibility of a replay of the riots staged during the presidential election.  Predrag Bulatovic responds to this with the accusation that it is likely that the ruling coalition, facing the possibility of defeat, might attempt to create an incident in order to avoid an election altogether.

In the meantime Herceg Novi and Podgorica have become large construction sites.  The citizens of other communities have began to yearn for local elections also.  Streets are being paved, bridges are being refurbished, new construction projects are being announced, while the ruling coalition was considerably assisted in all this by the international community's announced financial aid for various construction projects.  Instead of the scarce rain in Podgorica and Herceg Novic, citizens of these communities are being showered with election promises.  The ruling coalition has a fairly extensive election program, with every local candidate having a specific election program for his community.  However, not a single one of the ruling coalition's candidates is campaigning with their election program, but is instead stressing creative political potential of the coalition in resolving relations between Serbia and Montenegro, and even between Russia and America.  The behavior of other candidates is similar, with the citizens who have extra time on their hands noticing that the candidates in these local elections appear to be campaigning for a seat in the United Nations, and not for a seat in local government.

MAYORS:  Bulatovic's Coalition Yugoslavia is basing its campaign on issues of a unified Yugoslavia, on the fact that it is high time for Montenegrin sense of honor to be upheld, on returning to tradition, spirituality and an ultimate regaining of dignity which has been lost with what they call the sycophant kneeling by the Montenegrin before the international community in the hope of getting international aid.  A single Yugoslavia is the basis of their campaign, although it has been noted that the Radicals are campaigning with the notion of forming an alliance of Serbian lands, in which they altogether deny the existence of a Montenegrin nation and state.  The insistence on Serbian nationality and denial of Montenegrin nationality is not only dominant in their campaign rallies but also in their campaign pamphlets, especially in their daily paper "Dan", which is considered the voice of the Socialist People's Party.  The Liberals, on the other hand, are assuming the position of a third party and are directing their fire both at Djukanovic and Bulatovic, hoping to attract as many voters as possible with this strategy.  They are equally harsh toward both coalitions, although there is a distinct impression that their role at the political center does not promise to result in greater support, above all because everyone is aware of the fact that the main battle remains yet to be won.  In other words, that Montenegro will continue to lead a trench existence for as long as the Yugoslav crisis continues unresolved.  That is why a considerable number of Liberals will continue to vote for the ruling coalition, while Albanians will continue to avoid their national parties.

And while all this is taking place, citizens appear more concerned for how all of this will end and whether a conflict will be avoided, than they are interested in who will be mayor and who a councilman.  Predrag Bulatovic does not stand a chance of becoming Mayor of Podgorica on the basis of his present standing among voters.  Whether Minister Miomir Mugos will be elected to that position depends on whether the ruling coalition will get enough votes to constitute its own government, for the cost of entering into a coalition with the Liberals is for the President of the Liberals, Miroslav Vickovic, to be appointed Mayor of Podgorica.  According to general opinion, Ph.D. Djuro Maric, Djukanovic's candidate for the Mayor of Herceg Novi has more support than Bulatovic's candidate, Djuro Cetkovic who explicitly told the citizens of Herceg Novi that he is against all cooperation with Dubrovnik, which means the closing of the contentious Debeli Brijeg border crossing.

However, it is worth waiting for June 11 to see what will happen in Montenegro and how yet another fateful battle will be concluded.  As far as voters are concerned, many of them would prefer to sleep through the period leading up to the election.