Divisions, Calculations and Summer Lethargy

'Milosevic has a habit of working in the Summer', noticed Nebojsa Covic, leader of the Democratic Alternative, trying to warn the others from the opposition that the usual opposition lethargy should be avoided this Summer. For instance to keep away from the following logic - from mid June until mid July, during the European Football Championship, nothing can be done, then in July and August it is far too warm to try anything, then in September the Olympic Games will take place in Sydney, and they will eventually see what to do in October. If the opposition really thinks it that way, if we have in mind that (as those biographers who are familiar with the actual situation claim) Milosevic was exempt from physical education classes at school (which means that he is not interested in football and Olympic Games), and if we have in mind that this Summer he will hardly manage to spend his holiday in Greece as before, then the regime will have plenty of time until October to figure out whatever suits them to keep the situation under control. Accordingly, who is present - is present. So let no one be amazed if the Socialists launch their new pre-election slogan this Autumn - 'With us to the Olympic Games of 2004'.

Now, as many times before, the opposition leaders are announcing that this Summer they will wear out at least several pairs of shoes. In the Alliance for Changes, they claim that their pre-election campaign has already started in about 20 towns of Serbia, while one of the leaders of this coalition, Zoran Djindjic mentioned in a newspaper questionnaire that about 2,000,000 voters would be contacted prior to the elections. The Social-Democracy also mentions work during the Summer, from house to house, from household to household, from town centre to the local market, etc. In DSS (the Democratic Party of Serbia), they maintain that meetings should be transferred to the provinces of Serbia because it is time to 'sow the seed of defiance throughout Serbia'. Only Otpor (The Resistance) claim that they have nothing to do with that campaign and that, from the moment of calling the elections, they will launch their own campaign which is supposed to animate the people to participate in the elections.

DEADLINE IS OVER: The story about the elections, the dates of which are still unknown, was instigated by last week's classification of the Serbian opposition into two factions. The one is controlled by the largest opposition in Serbia - SPO (Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement) , according to which the current state of affairs do not allow plausibility of conducting regular and democratic elections and that in such a situation there is no sense talking about the elections, especially the partial ones. The other faction comprise the rest of the Serbian opposition with determination to take part in the elections as soon as they are called. If the regime calls only local elections this Summer, then the opposition will appear on them with a unique list which is being co-ordinated these days. If, in any case, the federal elections are also called, then the opposition will find and choose another model of participation in them, according to the 'impartial analysis', considering the somewhat different Election Law. SPO representatives also stated that they would no more take part at the meetings of the opposition since they do not want to repeat the already determined agreement of January 10th this year - the contract of the opposition's unification by which it was concluded that it should be insisted on elections at all levels at the same time. Those who are now ready to accept only the local elections claim that the contract of January 10th allowed enough time to the regime to accept the demands of the opposition and to call the elections at all levels. The deadline is over, the regime ignored those demands, and now it is time to try something else.

While describing what has just happened in the opposition camp of the Serbian political arena, the majority of foreign media used the expression 'schism'. The opposition leaders and their spokesmen speak of some points of disagreement which seem to be insurmountable and of 'the door which is not closed on either side'. Thus, those who are ready to accept any level of elections at the moment hope that Vuk Draskovic, the SPO leader, would eventually join them on the multiparty list. SPO, however, does not exclude the possibility that, if the repression against independent media continues (which only worsens the election conditions), those who are now urging the elections at any cost may change their attitude. Analysing in 'Blic' daily the newly-created situation, Dr. Vladimir Goati from the Institute of Social Sciences emphasises that the opposition definitively has to prepare for the elections and create mutual lists because it is a long and demanding task, but that they have to fight for better election conditions at he same time. 'The mere making of lists without the insistence on equal conditions is a masochist and useless job', says Dr. Goati, warning us of the uncertainty of the opposition's victory even if it has been proven by various opinion polls that the opposition has better chances than the actual regime. Moreover, the regime also counts on force.

ACTIVATION OF 'MOLEHILL': In essence, the opposition is stumbling over the same block, the one which has been its impediment so many times. Apart from that there is a Serbian proverb which says that it is shameful to stumble over the same block twice. In fact, many things today remind us of the affairs of the Summer 1997, when Draskovic and SPO participated in the elections, while Djindjic took the option of boycotting the elections. The things have changed: today SPO does not want to go to the elections, whereas Djindjic claims that the elections, under any conditions, are the only plausible way of procuring some changes in Serbia. The difference lies only in the fact that this time SPO will not run any campaign for boycotting the elections. Moreover, they are reminding the former boycott initiators that in Autumn of 1997, when SPO appeared at the elections, the terms and conditions were much more favourable than today. At that time, Djindjic was a target of ire on the part of some local DS leaders. Several days ago Draskovic replaced Srdjan Djordjevic, president of the SPO Board in Kraljevo, however, due to unknown reasons.

The political scientist, Dr. Srbobran Brankovic, one of the most persistent conductors of opinion polls in Serbia, says in his interview for VREME that the division within the opposition has not ceased. Brankovic is expecting a range of new regime's tactical blows on independent media but, at the same time, the activation of 'another military train of regime's people within the opposition', which would strive to break even more the 'united opposition'. 'If elections for the Federal Parliament were now taking place, the opposition would undoubtedly win with two election lists and gain between 45 and 50% of votes, while the regime's parties could count on approximately 25% of votes. Two opposition lists at the local elections are hazardous for the opposition, particularly in smaller towns. That is the situation at the moment, but if, during the Summer, there are new waves of repression on the media by the regime, including the second 'military train' of regime's moles, the opposition will have much tougher time in Autumn.' Commenting the fact that many things are now reminding us of the Autumn of 1997, with a slight exchange of roles, Brankovic says that he has impression as if someone here wants to mock the voters. 'It seems that time has stopped in 1997 for some opposition leaders, and they still believe that people would vote for them at the coming elections. They are wrong, since the majority of people want to vote against the regime', claims Brankovic who, at the same time supports the thesis that entirely new rules are now necessary in the opposition camp of the political arena in Serbia.

MIHAJLOVIC AND LEE PENG: And while the opposition in Serbia is concerned with mathematical divisions, the top of the regime does it own calculations. Above all, they count on the visit by the President of the Chinese Parliament, Lee Peng to Belgrade, which can only serve as a good RTS (the Radio Television of Serbia) series with the title 'we are not alone'. When the respected guest leaves for China, our not meant to be socialist soccer player Sinisa Mihajlovic could do something for the good of our nation - if he scores a goal against Slovenia at the European Football Championship. The SPS (the Serbian Socialist Party) sources claim they do not expect too much from Momir Bulatovic and SNP (the Socialist National Party) one week before the local elections in Podgorica and Herceg-Novi. The only thing the official Belgrade expects from them is to 'play to a draw', i.e. not to let Milo Djukanovic's coalition 'To Live Better' improve the difference between these two political formations. Momir and Predrag Bulatovic have a task to hold on at their current posts until Autumn and possible federal elections, and to try to prevent the announced approach to the idea of referendum which would establish the future status of Montenegro. No one from SPS fosters any clear idea how to organise federal elections in case that the actual regime in that Republic rejects them. In any case, the regime has the topic for consideration throughout the whole Summer. If there are elections and referendum in Autumn 2000, President of FRY Slobodan Milosevic would really be able to visit Montenegro and fulfill the promise given by Predrag Bulatovic and Ivica Dacic on his behalf.

As far as the long-term calculations are concerned, the regime surely estimates that not all options are yet used for the augmentation of its repression. The announced Law on Terrorism seems to be waiting for next steps and actions on the part of the opposition, whereas the regime currently plays according to the old British logic that 'the fleet is alert even without shooting'. If the opposition and Otpor begin with offensive actions, the law will immediately be put into effect and the fleet will start shooting. And vice versa, if the usual Summer lethargy takes place, the law will continue to operate as a fleet in a harbour - in the form of threat.
Until the elections, which are supposed to be organised (the unofficial SPS version) in October, many things have to be done regarding the independent media, and also regarding the local authorities in 'opposition towns'. Belgrade too will have to be 're-examined' as a recent candidate for receivership. The currently prevailing opinion among the Socialists is that at the moment in which Draskovic isolated himself from the rest of the opposition and does not want to appear at he the elections, it may be illogical to introduce receivership at all. In that case, they would probably wait for another month (in the meantime they would continue with munching and satanisation of that government), and then, several weeks before the elections, they would even introduce some extraordinary measures. Among those in power there are many who support the idea that after a peaceful 'surrender' of Studio B, the next step would be to - take over the entire city, and to do that as soon as possible. Unofficially, in case of the 'fall of Belgrade', SPO is ready to withdraw from every town where it happens to have local power. The DSS (Democrtic Party of Serbia) leader, Dr. Vojislav Kostunica suggests that the opposition at all levels should leave the parliaments wherever it has its representatives, in order to provoke the situation which leads towards the elections. The assistant teacher at Belgrade School of Political Sciences, Zoran Stojiljkovic has recently noticed in an interview that the opposition should quickly demonstrate the preventive response to the regime's repression, just as what its strategy actually is considering the appearance at the elections. The elections are going to be called, claims Stojiljkovic, when the regime estimates that the media are entirely taken over by them and when the seed of schism among the opposition is successfully disseminated. In  that case, Milosevic, as Nebojsa Covic says, 'has a habit of working during the Summer', and does not have to be agitated. Even before the beginning of Summer, his job is almost done. His supporters have recently received a message that they should not hope to go swimming in July and August due to the fateful elections. But, as it actually appears to be, apart from Ivica Dacic, who has already managed to swim while helping the pre-election campaign of SNP  Montenegro, many of them will catch that opportunity. Even those who are assigned to keep an eye on what the opposition is doing.

NATIONAL HERO
The hyperactive Federal Minister of Information, Goran Matic, the same one who is usually the first to announce who has killed whom, proposed a few days ago President of FRY Slobodan Milosevic for the medal of a National Hero. Matic addressed this proposal to the public from the post of the first man of JUL (the Yugoslav Left) in Novi Sad. Such an initiative was immediately sustained by many work organisations and local unions, while the military authorities gave the most positive statement about it. It all reminded us of the Dayton Agreement, and when the Socialists of Nis proposed Slobodan Milosevic, at that time President of Serbia for the Nobel Prize for Peace. The proposal was not endorsed. Neither have the predictions that Mile Ilic (the then leader of SPS in Nis and a man who was the first to remember the Nobel Prize) would gather great success in politics (he was ousted from the party after he lost local elections in Nis in 1996).