Logic of Surprise

Not a small number of Socialists were truly surprised last week. Early in the morning, the state media announced that on Thursday, July 6th, the Federal Government was about to debate the changes to the Constitution of FRY. Those changes were last time mentioned about three years ago - Djukanovic's supporters stood against them, Bulatovic's devotees were quite cautious and not too excited, some delegations, with Milorad Vucelic as their leader, went to Podgorica to debate, but their endeavour was useless. The Constitution could not have been changed out of a sudden, by force, or without the consent of one of the federal units (at least it used to be said and thought so). Soon afterwards, that idea was forgotten.

Now, after three years of silence, on Wednesday, July 5th, TANJUG was entitled to announce the changes to the Constitution. Many Socialists must have thought that they had fallen into someone's disfavour, because they had not been informed about such a grand matter. Nor had they been invited to such an important meeting to debate on the subject.

After several phone calls, everyone felt much easier. It turned out to be that there were no important meetings, that everything was prepared in the utmost secrecy and within a limited circle of people, that the majority of ministers from both the Federal and the Republican Government had no idea what it was about, and could not explain why it had to happen at that very moment, why so fast and without a usual propaganda introduction which lasts for at least several weeks. A few hours later, almost all of those who were worried at the beginning, reminded each other of the fact that their 'boss' is a man who always thinks straight and makes plans, goes forward and obviously sometimes re-reads Montesquieu, who says that many bad things are being carried out in the shadow of the law. It is sure that this time he really devised a cunning plan to confuse both Djukanovic and the local opposition, and even to make his political enemies enhance the dosage of 'logic pills'. The 'boss', however, has a habit to alter the rules out of a sudden, as it pleases him.

MATHEMATICS OF POLITICS: On that vary afternoon, many journalists, who tried to decipher what was about to be altered in the Constitution of FRY, were put on torture. Only in the late afternoon, when some of them managed to reach Ivica Dacic and procure the information that the debates concerning the alterations were based on identical proposals as those three years ago - which means, the election of the President of FRY at the imminent elections, and not in the Federal Parliament as it has been so far. Well, perhaps, two more terms of office and something else. The news about the changes to the Constitution and indirect messages which reveal that Slobodan Milosevic intends to remain at the head of FRY, spending at least two more terms of office as President, was quite surprising in the end, even for those who are used to his plans. Not so much due to the fact that such huge and important moves have never been made 'faster and more conspiratorially' than this one (as it was claimed by DSS leader, Dr. Vojislav Kostunica), but more due to the quite widespread belief among the Socialists that Slobodan Milosevic, after July 23rd 2001 (the expiration of his term of office), would take over the office of the Federal Prime Minister. Something like that seemed more credible to the majority, much more likely than the eventual changes of the Constitution.

It is a different matter that our previous federal prime ministers failed to understand what was written and that Slobodan Milosevic himself, wherever he went, always carried his authority, finding some balance in the Constitution. Instead of sending telegrams, post cards and letters, he always received them. Someone from the government circles has made a serious endeavour to employ mathematics in politics and calculate that this system was really constructed as that of 'chancellors', but that even when the regime demonstrates a visible decline of its own capacities, that spot is becoming even more vulnerable. Prime Minister without the absolute majority in the Federal Parliament is becoming incomparably easier to replace and more apt to a colapse than would be the president elected at the imminent elections. The elected president would be able to preserve his position even in case of the opposition's victory, and could gain the majority at the elections for the Federal Parliament. Political practice of some countries, especially that of France, is aware of the so-called 'co-habitation', i.e. those cases when the president and his immediate associates from the parliament have not really been like 'two eyes in one head'. French president is actually a 'super president' when his political option dominates the parliament. If the arrangement of forces were contrary to the president's will, he would deny some of his 'superpowers', but continue to perform his regular duties. Someone may notice that just as much as we are French, Milosevic is, or can be, Miterraine'. But habits are subject to changes, authority is authority, especially when one cannot choose and when the survival in the government is regarded as a pre-condition of the physical survival. In any way, why should the opposition, which lost the elections so many times, have to win this time.

TECHNOLOGY OF REGIME: A few days after the Constitution was changed, many people noticed that all that has been done, practically over night, could have been done much more slowly and with more democratic flavour. In Podgorica, for example, it was long known that in the Council of Republics, the official Belgrade could gain 27 votes necessary for alterations to the Constitution, and that the 27th 'man of decision' was no one else but the former member of DPS (the Democratic ?????). They became aware of that since, in April this year, the Serbian opposition (or more precisely SPO - the Serbian Renewal Movement) willingly deprived themselves of four members in that Council. Apart from that knowledge, the impression is that the news about the change of the Constitution found them unawares, and that is why it is being talked about Milosevic's supplies of surprises which he prepares for his political opponents. From time to time, he, namely, sticks to the logic of Indian tribal chiefs - you cannot come close to the enemy and surprise him if he knows that you are coming.

The authorities in Podgorica show less and less will to share the house with those who are in power in Belgrade but, at the same time, repeat that if Milosevic resigned or lost the elections, the reconstruction of the mutual house would be quite possible. Some of those who support Djukanovic's option seemed to be ready to mend the roof only, under condition that Milosevic leaves the throne. With changes to the Constitution of FRY, all theories about the roof and the walls failed, just as did the often repeated story of Podgorica officials that the ice of Belgrade will start melting to enable the negotiation concerning the reconstruction of the joint state. In the meantime, Milosevic showed his capability to adapt to any conditions, like penguins to the ice, and go further, leaving only a clear message that the termination of his government is not an easy job.

The continued discussions of the authorities in Podgorica and the Serbian opposition about the joint strategy for the future became senseless in comparison to the last week's Constitution alterations. Djukanovic's team was pushed back to the position of the one who is strangled by invisible hands and asked if he could break free. Should he not try to break free, he would be strangled more and more, but should he break away, he might make a disastrous move. The Serbian opposition is in a situation of the similar kind - to try to find quickly a mutual strategy for federal elections and a mutual candidate, who would most probably be Milosevic's rival in October. Among the opposition leaders, there are those who claim that it is better not to try anything. Older ideas, such as the one that Djukanovic would be an ideal candidate, are obviously not valid anymore. President of Montenegro has long been exposed to the media radiation, which has already assured a great deal of the potential electoral body that it was about an 'incorrigible separatist and traitor'. Simultaneously, last year at one meeting in his native Niksic, Djukanovic sent a pretty rational message to the public that he was not concerned about Belgrade and Dedinje at all.

President of the Parliament of Montenegro, Svetozar Marovic noticed at a proper time that the survival of the first Yugoslavia depended on the king, the second on Tito, and that the third Yugoslavia is in the hands of the current President. It is also claimed by some that last week we already stepped into the fourth Yugoslavia, in which, this Autumn, there will be elections for the Federal Parliament (without Kosovo and most probably without Montenegro), and next Autumn, there will be elections on the same territory, but they will be called - republican elections. The actual President and Tito are similar not only for being called national heroes, but also for their ambitions to rule infinitely. In Tito's case, there were not many who remember that Broz was a locksmith by profession. Instead, he is remembered by his ingenious rule demonstrated, above all, in the determination that one must hang on to the law as a 'drunkard to the fence'. The current President is rarely looked upon as a lawyer by profession, above all because we live in a country where laws are treated as a means of everyday politics, where, on the way to reach the aim, all possible legal and illegal means are used, and where law, constitution and authority are pretty much ignored.