Yugoslavia - Milosevic's Personal Toy

Despite a considerably worsened political situation following the amendment to the Constitution, the opposition in Serbia is still not certain whether an election will be held this Fall or not.  And if an election is held, it is not certain on what level the election will take place, and whether the opposition will at all take part in such an election - that is to say which election would they take part in.  The President of the Democratic Party, Zoran Djindjic explains:

"I think that this round of changes is not over yet.  Milosevic has defined a position that suits him, but has still to reach it.  According to the law, the opposition has the right to have control over the voting process and this poses an insurmountable obstacle for Milosevic to get to the position he desires.  His best bet would be to count each vote individually, and that is why before any election dates are set we expect further aggressive legislation which will be directed toward diminishing the possibility of control over the election process. I think that we can expect announcements of the sort that ours is the most democratic country in the world, which has been proven time and again, and that there is no reason for political parties to control the elections.  Whoever chooses not to have faith in our government is welcome to go to a country in whose government they will have faith.  In America also, members of Gore's and Bushe's parties have no control over the voting process - instead they place their faith in the American government, etc., etc.

Of course, it would be ideal if in the manner of a boomerang we could direct back to Milosevic the decision he has taken so that he could be definitely defeated, although it is not realistic to expect victory over Milosevic on a battlefield of his own design and choice where he holds all institutions in his hands.

We need to ready ourselves for a scenario of a sharpening political crisis.  We need to sit down to create a serious strategy for avoiding war, for salvaging and consolidating all the forces which are sick to the stomach of everything that is happening and to figure out how to react to the challenge which Milosevic will throw our way in September of October."

VREME:  Do you think that the opposition in Serbia should take part in federal, parliamentary and presidential elections?

DJINDJIC:  It is too early to give an answer to that question. Montenegro has decided not to take part in such an election.  What is necessary now is a joint analysis in order to decide what is the best thing to do, for we must choose between the lesser of two evils: what is less detrimental to the country and what carries smaller risks for the region in terms of putting an end to armed conflicts. Once the summer of our discontent is over, we must inform the citizens of Serbia of the essential aspects of the latest constitutional changes, to explain to them that in fact these changes have put an end to Serbia as such.  For most people in Serbia, the issue of whether Montenegro has been denied some rights is at best a theoretical and moral issue which they perceive as someone else's problem - which it de facto is. However, what lurks behind this is the transformation of Serbia into Yugoslavia.  There is no election which could take place in Serbia which could change this.  Yugoslavia is becoming Mount Olympus in which we have to begin to believe ever so many gods.  We have to begin to believe that we have no influence over our faith.  With 20,000 to 30,000 Montenegrins, with the equivalent of two Montenegrin communities, Milosevic can have a strangle hold over such a Yugoslavia.  This means, he and another 20,000 of his people will constitute such a Yugoslavia. They will elect that parliament and they are the ones who will define such a Serbia.

This has brought Serbia to the lowest point it has reached since the time of Karadjordje Petrovic (trans. nt.: dubbed Black George by the Ottomans, leader of the First Serbian Rebellion against the Turks in in 1804 and founder of the Karadjorjdevic Royal Dynasty).  In Tito's time Serbia had more dignity and greater weight than it has today.

VREME:  And what does the opposition intend to do?

DJINDJIC:  It is necessary to raise political awareness against this, so that political parties are not the ones fueling discontent, but rather the people themselves.  There is a big difference if citizens express their discontent there where they can express it, and if something is happening against their will, for a dictatorship is a system in which developments unfold outside of the will of the majority.  But it is quite another matter if the majority is disinterested.  The job facing political parties here is to transform indifference into active dissatisfaction.  If our political scene is bad, if the people are indifferent and if our political parties are mulling over what to do, than there is hardly much material to work with.

VREME:  What could political parties do specifically, after a period of considering and weighing over?

DJINDJIC:  Door to door campaigning in order to tally up voters' numbers and to inspire people to vote for our candidates, which is all taking place as we speak, could change appreciably if citizens were to be polled on whether instead of Serbia and Montenegro they want a Yugoslavia that is not recognized by anyone, to which they have not given their blessing and which looks more like an amusement toy for Milosevic and several other people close to him.  And if the majority were to say, "for God's sake let me be, can't you see I'm buying a refreshing watermelon to cool down the summer heat," this would mean that our nation is still not mature enough to handle historical responsibilities.  Under such conditions no one has the right to demand from the ten of us to solve this quagmire.

VREME:  In the event that the Serbian opposition decides to take part in a federal election, is there any chance that it would come out with a presidential candidate who would run against Milosevic, despite the condition the opposition is in?

DJINDJIC:  We are facing two problems: how to treat the position of president, which we believe consists of six ranks, and how to treat the changes to the constitution which we consider illegal, given that they were adopted without the consent of Montenegro.  We do not recognize the position of president, while taking part in a federal election without Montenegro would practically mean that we have joined Milosevic in ousting Montenegro from the Yugoslav Federation.  This is a very complicated issue.

If presidential elections for Serbia were to take place in October, we would have a single candidate.  We recognize the position of Serbian president, and hence the issue would be how to win such an election.

VREME:  Do you believe that an election boycott would be a present dropped right into Milosevic's lap, or do you think it this would constitute a form of astute political action?

DJINDJIC:  It is necessary to carry out an analysis of how many people can differentiate between local and federal elections.  If both elections are held simultaneously, can we educate five million people sufficiently to have them vote for local candidates, while boycotting federal ones?  Secondly, if the Election Law is modified negatively to such an extent that we simply cannot take part in an election - that will be very dramatic.  We cannot give up Nis, Cacak and Kragujevac quite so easily.  These cities are not Belgrade.  In those cities we have strong organization and people there have enormous desire for change, so that this will not go quite so smoothly.  The fact that the opposition is very active in Nis and that the idea of change is alive and well there, while there is no such thing in Belgrade, is something I feel very bad about, but that is not Serbia.  This is part of my criticism of the media, of the fact that they focus on a narrow cross-section of the Serbian population living in Belgrade which is only fascinated by big things.

VREME:  Is it possible to say anything concretely about steps that the opposition will take in the future with regard to the federal election?

DJINDJIC:  Well, on a global level, no.  Everything is open and there is no need to close doors with speculation.  However, in terms of grass roots preparations, there is no need for further discussion.  If we want to stand any kind of chance in an election in September, be it a boycott or any other political crisis, we need to have hundreds of thousands people who are connected, informed and mobilized in a kind of opposition grass roots network.  And this takes place slowly and never reaches the front page of the newspaper.  Our media have become dependent on Milosevic.  He has made them lazy and hungry for scandal, and if one has nothing to say that is incidental, it is impossible to get into the newspapers.

VREME:  Is there any chance that the democratic opposition could work together with the Serbian Renewal Movement toward a common strategy?

DJINDJIC:  We will hold a meeting with all those who want to contribute, all those who have demonstrated a high degree of mutual synchronization in the past two to three months.

VREME:  Do you know what is the degree of disappointment among the citizens of Serbia after the latest falling off in the opposition?

DJINDJIC:  It does not matter whether I know this or not, but what we can do about it.  We can try to join together those who want to do something, so that they can really do something.  If someone tells us "I am disappointed because he who does not want to do anything is not with you," I can only say that I am equally disappointed myself, but that is not a solution.  We can't say - in order for the people not to be disappointed, we will all do nothing and thus we will all join together in sloth.  I think it is overly idealistic to expect that all those who are registered somewhere as the opposition can work jointly.

VREME:  If you don't know whether you will take part in the elections or not, then you cannot call on voters to vote.  What will you ask them to do instead?

DJINDJIC:  Such a scenario of complete certainty does not exist even under Communism.

 Postponed Talks

VREME:  When will the announced talks between the opposition and the Montenegrin leadership take place, and is it known who will take part in them?

DJINDJIC:  Conditions have changed.  Those talks were supposed to be devoted to the approach to the federal elections, and to agreement on a joint reform platform which would be offered to citizens of Serbia and Montenegro.  Agreement has been reached between the opposition and leading Montenegrin political parties with regard to reforms taking place in the direction of a decentralized federal state, in the direction of independence of each republic and of a pro-European orientation of the joint federal state.

Now something completely different has occurred.  With the changes to the constitution, not only has the state not become decentralized, but it has in fact become unitary.  Not only is it just as removed from Europe as before, but it appears to have veered off even more. It is necessary to hold very serious discussions within the opposition in Serbia, and then with democratic parties in Montenegro. Perhaps preparatory contacts will take place in the ensuing five to six months, but a meeting which would yiled concrete conclusions will certainly not be held in the next ten days.

Bye, Bye Kosovo

"Who can take it upon themselves to explain to anyone in the world that Kosovo should not be independent.  Our only argument was that it is better that Kosovo should be part of a federal, decentralized Yugoslavia which is structured with complexity, instead of playing independence. Now Kosovo is supposed to be part of a unitary state in which Milosevic is the direct president.  All our friends who questioned the process of independence of Kosovo are not left without any arguments.  All those who have been working behind the scenes toward getting independence for Kosovo after the Fall elections have merely strengthened their arguments."

 Who Is Panicking?

There is profound disgust with this system.  There is a desire for something completely new in the very substance of this society.  Of course, obstacles today are greater than ever, for the people who want to prevent changes are well aware of this situation.  That is why there is panic this year, that is why the state media appear reminiscent of Germany in 1943, but not because they are powerful, but because they fell that this is leading into nothingness, and the more they head toward nothingness, the longer their claws promise to be.  The big question is now to use this opportunity and to avoid the risk of armed conflict at the same time, for that also is an ultimate option Milosevic on his table.  It is clear that there is fear that non-institutional actions could lead to bloodshed, for the people feel that the regime is ready for everything.

That is why the majority of people are waiting for an opportunity which would be semi-legal.  This opportunity is offered by an election.  And that is why Milosevic is afraid, for he knows the same thing we know - that people do not want him, and they want changes instead, but at the same time they don't want to risk their lives and their security.  And now once again he is trying to initiate radical actions, for he assumes that the majority of people in Serbia will not become a part of this. However, if we beat him in an election, then the majority of people in Serbia will be ready to defend that victory.  This is now a sensitive issue: where is the border which we must not cross in order to avoid violence, and which we must touch on in order to exert sufficient pressure, for of what use is it if we decide not to provoke violence with the end result of a solid status quo?  Ultimately there will be violence, for he will cause it.

Milosevic and Seselj together are now a part of a minority.  That is why Milosevic has embarked upon this latest operation.  Until now it was sufficient for him to count of making a deal with Seselj after the elections.  Why did he choose to be elected directly now?  Because he is no longer confident in the support of his coalition partners, because he is now confident of being able to make a deal with Seselj again. Because he decided to create chaos in one shot, to call an election, to manipulate, and then to be secure for another four years, without having to think of whether Seselj will blackmail him or not.  This is not his strength - it is his weakness.  I have not read anywhere that this means that he is panicking.

VREME:  Perhaps because few people think that he is panicking.  Still he did manage to change the highest legislative act overnight.

DJINDJIC:  Still, it is not a matter of who thinks what, but of what his real options are.  As Churchill used to say, the worst thing is when people begin believing statistics which have been tampered with in their presence.  People believe that the Constitution is something, that the Federal Parliament is something.  Milosevic could have canceled the Constitution, have written a new one, and no one would have said anything.  Would anyone have been surprised by that?  Why?  The fact is that all that is just mere paper.

VREME:  It is not mere paper if on the basis of it he remains in power for another eight years.

DJINDJIC:  He wont stay in power for another eight years because of a piece of paper, nor because of an election.  It is rather because of his strength which comes from several sources which are becoming more scarce, but have still not dried up.  When they dry up, the constitution can be anything, but he will not be able to invoke it and say, you see, according to the constitution I have so much time remaining in office.