It's Too Late For A Step Back

Are you for disintegration followed by reintegration? This is what the ideal question at the Montenegrin referendum should be, since even those who are against disintegration and those who are against reintegration could decisively answer YES or NO, whatever; both answers would mean the same thing, they could be added up and it would be a total success.

The government in Montenegro has intensified and deepened the well-known old division and the problem has become impossible, like a quadrature of a circle. An all or nothing type of question should provide an answer which means something totally different, which would satisfy both sides. Which is why a referendum on sovereignty is being prepared at the same time as a platform on joint functions is being offered. What is supposedly expected of Serbia is to provide brotherly help, to pacify those who are opposed to a divorce in Montenegro and to say that everything will be all right, Serbia won't become angry nor hurt, on the contrary, it will comprehend that divorce as a sign of love after which we will live harmoniously and better than ever before.

However, it seems as though some kind of sour mood is growing in Serbia, and the answer to Podgorica might be cool, in the sense: first organize your referendum, decide whether you are inside or outside, and then we'll see whether there will be any agreement and on what. That would probably reduce the chances for success at the referendum, it would intensify the tension in Montenegro and would get both Djukanovic's government and both, fairly equal sides in this dispute into trouble. That intensification has actually already commenced since the ruling coalition has fallen apart following the departure of the People's Party.

The problem has been reduced to the international recognition of Montenegro, i.e. a formal abolishment of FRY, which Djukanovic claims doesn't exist anyway. If that was absolutely true, there wouldn't be any problems, and even a referendum would be superfluous. However, what is true is that a joint state formally exists, at least in relation to the outside world, and it is up to Montenegro whether that outside form will be filled with some kind of internal contents, or be abolished. Djukanovic is moving towards the latter solution, risking to damage the relations with Serbia and internal discord.

I don't see that formal independence is that important for Montenegro, even if it could be achieved easily and cheaply. Now that Milosevic is so utterly defeated, it could come to an agreement with Belgrade by which it would gain practically everything that it needs except that chair in the United Nations. However, Milosevic is no longer mentioned in Podgorica, but all the other old traumas are, such as the 1918 union. People who claim that they are exclusively looking towards the European future are talking about that past. Supposedly, they believe that that trauma is greater and fresher than all the other European traumas which Europe is giving no thought to. Someone should be made to understand that Montenegro must protect itself so that 1918 couldn't be repeated, while in Bosnia and Kosovo life should be restored and reconstructed on yesterday's graveyards. In Podgorica, naturally, they have the right to complain because of this connection with the other regional problems, but one cannot expect from the world whose support and recognition is requested not to notice that Montenegro's secession presents a bad example and is contradictory to all the efforts to stabilize the Balkans.

True, Montenegro has recently received quite a large amount of money from the US, just slightly less than Serbia, which could be comprehended as "discreet" support for secession. I don't know what the American motives are, if not to, with the disappearance of FRY, make the problem of Kosovo's status easier and the UN resolution worthless which states that it is a part of Yugoslavia. I understand that Montenegro needs that money, yet if that is the main reason for this major historic endeavor, to create problems for yourself and others, I would say it isn't worth it, especially since the US certainly won't indefinitely continue paying Montenegro's bills.

As far as Serbia is concerned, it doesn't have to insist on a formal continuation of this union either out of spite, nor from inertia, nor so that President Kostunica wouldn't be left without a job, but the problem of Kosovo remains. Someone might notice that Kosovo is fairly lost to Serbia anyway, but Belgrade definitely has the right to continue negotiating over it all, to request various concessions and generally to deal with it in its own free time, instead of immediately finding itself at a clear loss once Podgorica decides to abolish Yugoslavia. 

The government in Montenegro isn't obliged to take this into account, nor other, bigger consequences and chain reactions which could be provoked by this automatic solution to Kosovo's status, but they shouldn't deceive themselves that their formal march towards secession isn't a hostile gesture towards Serbia. In that case they shouldn't overly have faith in the platform they have offered, but rather in themselves and St. Vasilije Ostroski, the miracle worker who restores sight to the blind and who might be of assistance with regards to the referendum as well. By all accounts at least half of the Montenegrins would vote against secession, and it wouldn't be suitable if Montenegro's Albanian votes prevailed. As citizens, they naturally have all rights to take a stand on this issue, but civic principles in this case are only masking a problem which in its essence is a national one.

The Montenegrins are divided exactly on account of their national feelings and the Albanians would certainly be unanimous due to their national reasons. Formally, they don't have to take account of this either, but obtaining prevailing votes with the help of an ethnic minority, which has its separate interests, doesn't bode well for Montenegro.

For Djukanovic who, until recently, was rather popular in Serbia, possibly even more so than in Montenegro itself, it is probably too late to stop and take a step back. That could, namely, easily cost him his power, but there is no good exit for him even if he continues down that same road. Maybe the best solution for him would be to simply lose that referendum and to peacefully retire then.