Bitter Fruit

The first mystery is who will be on the plane leaving Belgrade airport, once the staff have cleaned the cobwebs off the passenger-loading stairs and weeded the runway? Author Dobrica Cosic and businessman Milan Panic, the President and Prime Minister of "Yugoslavia" respectively? With or without Milosevic and Bulatovic? I believe that Milosevic would prefer to stay at home and not get in the way of the first two, even though he is perhaps somewhat irritated with listening to them burying him alive. But, there is nothing and he will certainly be very present through his oeuvre, which, in fact, is the main topic of the conference. The controversy over the composition of the Belgrade team which could thwart the show in London is not a formal one and has not cropped up, just because the world and the other former Yugoslav republics do not recognize Cosic's Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The international jury is prepared to pronounce a sentence, even though there may be no one to carry it out. But what to do if the first defendent is absent? All feel that it would be a great deceit if the other two turned up instead of Milosevic; one of whom is innocent and the other's guilt cannot be proved.

Milosevic is a man who always likes to have a safeguard and an alibi, no matter how formal or obvious. Just as he persisted in denying any involvement in the war in Croatia, by laying the responsibility with the army, and as he washed his hands of Bosnia, Milosevic is not pushing Cosic and Panic to defend his war legacy before the world. If he is forced to show up in London, he will adopt a reticent and unostentatious stand.

It is Prime Minister Milan Panic's task to show goodwill and promise all he is asked. In a letter to the Security Council, Panic offered to comply with all demands which could be made of Serbia, including the observing of "Tito's border", an expression which deeply insults Serbian nationalism and has not been chosen randomly. In fact, Panic later added that all refugees should return to their homes, a move which would anul all the achievements of Karadzic and General Mladic. Panic was probably being serious, but such an intention would be rejected and sabotaged by all Serbian leaders, both in Bosnia and Belgrade, including greater part of the opposition. It is hard to believe that the very victims of ethnic cleansing would readily agree to go back without some serious international guarantees. It can be expected that all those invited from the Serbian side will arrive in London, as this Conference comes at the most favourable time for the Serbian cause, at least as they see it. The job in Bosnia has practically been completed. There is even a surplus of land and it has been well purged of the unbelievers. The central topic of the Conference would have to be linked to the recognition, or rather, to a rejection of the fait accompli; as regards the problem of ethnic cleansing more than the re-drawing of borders. Captured territories can always be handed back, but things are more difficult with people. In Bosnia there can be no proper re-drawing of borders without a so-called exchange of the population, and that is the only point on which the Serb representatives will insist in London, with the discreet understanding of the Croatian side.

World diplomacy must not accept this, above all, for the sake of opinion at home, and perhaps, because of somebody's political wisdom and far-sightedness. On the one hand, the Moslems would inevitably be turned into desperate revenge-seekers and terrorists, which would mean an end to stable peace. Apart from this, Europe and the world have plenty of would-be Milosevics who are eagerly waiting to see how the international community will tackle a fait accompli.

No one will, therefore, sanction the results of war and pogroms, but who can put things in their place in Bosnia again? It seems to be too late now for that which Alija Izetbegovic and many Bosnians hoped for in the beginning. Or it will remain so until the world powers agree to do something. Bosnia, as a joint state, has practically been destroyed and this gives the Serbian negotiators in London strong arguments, notwithstanding their moral inferiority.

Dobrica Cosic's position in the whole matter is unusual. At the Conference he will be bargaining over gains arrived at through crime. This lover of moralist rhetoric will do his best to pick the fruits of Milosevic's war, regardless of the heaviest moral mortgage in the history of his people. As if he has become a hero in one of his novels, Cosic is now trying to put right what Serbian nationalists consider to be an error made after World War One. He is trying to put together a Greater Serbia instead of Yugoslavia.

This Conference is being described as Serbia's last chance and that is probably true, even though we have used up many a last chance so far. This time however, too many important people are getting together for the matter to remain non-binding. There is also the Security Council decision for military action. Cosic claims that he is not familiar with the agenda, and knows even less of the prepared materials. At the Conference he will certainly be asked to sign something binding him to reject the new territories and pushing him towards actively discouraging Karadzic. Cosic probably expects this and will try to effect some form of recognition of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in exchange. This is why he is underscoring Yugoslavia's continuity as the keay issue.

As regards the war, the conference might even encourage it, because Bosnia has some three hundred local chieftains who consider it a matter of honour to show that they are invincible and that they are the ones who decide on life and death. Doubtless, such men can be found on all sides now, but the world remains particularly sensitive to Serbs, because they are held responsible for starting things, for the brutal destruction of Sarajevo and for ethnic cleansing. This means that Serbia, or rather the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, will remain under sanctions until these bomb-throwers turn into shepherds, or until Serbian leaders admit that they have no authority over them and outlaw them.

However, Serbia is also preparing for the possibility of a failure in London. In the event that its demands are too great for the world, feelings of national pride will be invoked even if the result is a strengthening of sanctions. Dobrica Cosic in a book that is about to come out says: "To perceive and name the advantage of civilized backwardness, and they exist, especially in the sphere of economy and urbanization. They are our initial intellectual capital." This idea has not been elaborated further, but it could not have been said by chance and in passign. An aged Cosic is probably nostalgically recalling his childhood in Velika Drenova and thinking how nice it would be if Serbia were to become once again as he saw it then.

As things are developing, such prospects are becoming realistic and we should not be surprised if in the near future we have an entirely anti-civilizational ideology which will celebrate backwardness as the supreme ideal. Cities, trade, money and machines will be percieved as unnecessary, detrimental, unnatural and godless. A world which plans to punish and break Serbia is in fact undefeatable. All that which is being used as a threat Serbia will render as something that best expresses the authenticity and purity of its people who would only be corrupted and led into sin by anything more perfect than a hoe.