Macedonia in the Crossfire

"No, they will never attack Tetovo. Perhaps some terrorists who are supported by the West and who are trying to do something, but local Albanians have no reason to complain. Just look at how much money was invested in new houses, veritable palaces, shopping centers. They hold all the money in the town - who would be crazy to destroy all that! If they begin a war, all their property will be destroyed. They don't only hold all the money in their hands - the president of the Community is an Albanian, the police chief is an Albanian, everything is in their hands, down to the local library. And now they are demanding 'equality' according to the constitution, demanding a federation for their state. Macedonia is too small to be split apart like that. NATO is obviously pushing they, allowing them everything, just like the Albanians in Kosovo. NATO media are doing the same thing, the lies that the BBC is spreading! If they get their way this time around, Macedonia will disappear. That is why if anyone should be complaining, it is us Macedonians. We used to be, not so long ago, the majority here in Tetovo."

Only two days before shooting really broke out in Tetovo, the second city in Macedonia in size, lawyer Simo Tripkovski was trying to persuade VREME journalists and one foreign journalist (but himself above all) that war will not come to Macedonia, least of all to Tetovo. Not far from his law office, housed in a large kiosk, a group of workers was finishing off an old house on whose foundations new commercial properties are to be built, as proof that local Albanians are expanding their businesses. Loud music coming from jam packed, ethnically clear cafes, mixed in with the sound of a surprising number concrete mixers, merely strengthened the impression that no one in Tetovo is interested in clashes between the Macedonian Army and the so-called Albanian Liberation Army (ONA) on the northern border of Macedonia, around the village of Tanusevci.

FRESH EGGS ONLY: A few days later, on Wednesday, March 14, all out war began on the slopes of Sar Mountain above Tetovo. The sound of concrete mixers was soon replaced by the sound of automatic weapons and detonations on the neighboring slopes. Instead of construction workers, the streets of the town were swarming with combat vehicles and soon after tanks from the Macedonian Army. In a very short period around 70 percent of the population of Tetovo abandoned that city and headed in different directions - some toward Albania, others toward the FRY, and the majority to non-government institutions in Skoplje, where they are demanding that politicians give a normal life which they had. The citizens of Tetovo who remained behind rarely venture out of their homes because fighting is taking place several thousand feet from the center of the city. During the first days of war, several Albanians were sprawling on the lawn in the center of the city, with their shoes removed, watching the fighting on the neighboring hills. When the first grenades began to fall in the center of the city, these observers soon disappeared. With them also disappeared various observers (KFOR, OSCE, etc. - with their shoes laced up, of course) who were observing the same hills from jeeps and through binoculars. What they were "observing carefully" could not make up for their persistent blindness and glossing over the fact that the Balkans are due to split up once more and to enter a fifth war in under ten years. This time out of the chaos of postwar Macedonia.

>From seven o'clock in the evening, until six in the morning, there is a police hour in effect in Tetovo. All cafes and stores are closed and open briefly whenever there is an interruption in the shooting. Last Friday while powerful detonations could be heard all around the city and the streets were full of inquisitive journalists and cameramen, or locals ready for flight, the VREME reporter observed a surreal scene - some hundred feet behind a Macedonian Army vehicle which was directing fire at the neighboring hills, the proprietor of a grocery store "Sloga" (tr. "Togetherness") was putting up a sign "FRESH EGGS ONLY" and sorting out eggs in front of his store by size and quality, from 100 to 160 dinars per package. Fit fore every budget. Among the last stores to be closed in Tetovo is the local weapons store in which only a few guns remain. The Macedonian Army and Police is directing fire from the city at the hills, and it is answered by evidently well trained and entrenched terrorists, mostly veterans from the war in Kosovo, who now decided that time has come for a "war of liberation" in Macedonia.

Right up to Tuesday evening, March 20, the frontline between the two sides did not move appreciably. On Tuesday evening, war descended upon the central streets of Tetovo where a police patrol was attacked for the first time and a TV crew was shot at. That same evening, the Army and the Police, which brought significant heavy weapons, decided to suspend all attack for a period of 24 hours. The terrorists were given a deadline to surrender by midnight Wendesday, to hand over their weapons or to go back to where they came from. If this does not happened, the Macedonian forces are ready to begin an uncompromising and decisive action of cleaning up their country from terrorists. The terrorists, located in the village of Selce, the headquarters of the Macedonian faction of the KLA, called ONA, convinced of their superiority, sent a message to the government in Skoplje that they do not care much for ultimatums and that they are ready to negotiate on one single point only - changing of the Macedonian constitution and a federation. Beyond that, they are ready for a prolonged war.

The Village of Selce is only three kilometers outside of Tetovo. On Sar Mountain, the part of Macedonia toward Kosovo, there are six more villages where the only residents are Albanians and through which, according to reports by a journalists with Liberasiona, there are endless convoys of armed men, weapons, ammunition and food passing day and night. Guerillas with that kind of support and with an obviously open border toward Kosovo are not likely to put down their weapons any time soon, or to return to where they came from. KFOR Commander General Cabigiosa claims that his army controls the border with Macedonia and that the conflict there did not come from Kosovo. One guide who crosses that well-guarded border on a daily basis told the Liberasiona journalists that the guerillas have no problems with the German soldiers who are in charge of that segment of the border. "We try not to make problems for the KFOR, and they don't make any problems for us," this guide through the Sar Mountain passages stated with a smile. Several days before the shooting around Tetovo began, the German soldiers with the KFOR located in this city noticed that terrorists are training on the neighboring hills and digging trenches. They have no mandate to act in such situations, and why would they get mixed up in something that does not concern them.

BETWEEN TWO FIRES: Those who took up weapons could be influenced marginally more by a statement signed on Tuesday by Arben Dzaferi and Imer Imeri, leders of DPA and PDP, two of the largest Macedonian Albanian political parties. They called on their fellow Albanians to put away their weapons and not to block the path to Europe to all Albanians, where they are headed. They voiced support for a peaceful resolution through dialogue between the Macedonian government and Albanian political parties in Macedonia. From the moment that ONA appeared in Macedonia, leaders of the PDP and Imeri himself made it clear that their political aspirations are at one with those of their brothers who decided to take up arms. Because of all this it is not hard to believe stories that Imeri's signature on the join statement was preceded by "arm twisting" on the part of Western diplomats. The EU coordinator for foreign policy and security, Xavier Solana, met with Albanian leaders in Skoplje that very same day. What he told them and suggested can only be guessed at from Solana's press statement that the Macedonian authorities should under no circumstances be drawn into a mistake of negotiating with terrorists.

One of the ONA spokesmen, however, believes that this is precisely the moment for the armed Albanian representatives to sit down to the negotiating table, given that they demonstrated their power to the Macedonian authorities and the rest of the world. The terrorists believe that Albanian parties in Macedonia have been unsuccessful for the past ten years in winning greater rights for their fellow countrymen. According to them, now is the time to force negotiations for a change in the Macedonian constitution in a way that would give Albanians the status of a people which took part in the writing of the constitution, which would eventually lead to a federation. All prior experience of the KLA suggest that "he who shoots - wins", and that NATO and its officials are quick to force negotiations for all those who carry weapons, even where the weapon carriers are part of organizations with documented terrorist activities, with participation in the drug trade and ethnic cleansing.

Arben Dzafiri, leaders of the DPA, is certainly in the most difficult position on the Albanian side. Reports coming from Selce and other terrorist strongholds of armed Albanians on Sar Mountain indicate that local DPA power has been suspended there for some time now, with "war councils" having taken the reigns of local government. Armed Albanians criticize this party for cooperating with Macedonians mostly because of profitable deals, with the Albanian population not getting anything in return, because its constitutional status remains unchanged. As a coalition partner in the Macedonian government, Dzafiri and the DPA are trying to balance between a peaceful solution to the conflict with Macedonia remaining intact, and arguments that Albanians in Macedonia are living without sufficient rights. The international community is demanding that this party offer support to the Macedonian government, given that it invested in the past in the coalition between DPA and VMRO. Many Albanians are expecting that Dzaferi will lobby for greater rights for Albanians and for understanding of the armed insurgence. On the other hand, the Macedonian opposition is arguing more strongly each day, what is the purpose of a ruling coalition in this country, if terrorists are allowed free reign on the territory of Macedonia. Evidently torn between all these demands and expectations, but above all unhappy with the fact that his party was not consulted on the decision to send in the Army and the Police to Tetovo, Dzaferi announced last Tuesday that DPA might abandon the ruling coalition government of Macedonia. This will inevitably happen if weapons continue to be used in Tetovo. The DPA leader claims that the violent reaction by the army and the police is too overt by comparison with the situation on ground.

POOR ECONOMY: Macedonian Prime Minister Ljupco Georgijevcki also found himself in the crossfire these days, having addressed his nation recently with claims that Macedonia is facing aggression from Kosovo and its political parties, with the KFOR behaving in an underhanded manner in the whole conflict, "with the USA and Germany knowing precisely who are the commanders of the groups which are attacking us." American abassador in Skoplje, Mike Heinik called such a statement by the Macedonian Prime Minister "twisting of the truth" and swore that Washington had no prior knowledge of actions by radical groups. This statement by the US Ambassador fits in with statements by NATO officials that they are still investigating who are the radicals who are shooting in Macedonia, even though the radicals are appearing in print, with name and surnames, in all international papers, claiming lengthy cooperation and trust with NATO. One of the recently promoted KLA (ONA) Commanders in Macedonia sent a message to American people that they should not worry because his "army will not attack their soldiers" and that it is only fighting against the Macedonian state.

As far as Prime Minister Georgijevcki is concerned, his dramatic address of the nation in which he criticized the double-faced behavior of the great powers and chastised Kosovar Talibans and politicians who are now directing aggression toward Macedonia, completely forgetting "the extended brotherly hand at a time of need, the bread and water which Macedonia offered to them at the hardest moments" when hundreds of thousands of refugees fled from Kosovo, is not likely to improve his image. Macedonians quickly reminded Georgijevcki of his exceptional hurry in offering a red carpet greeting to Hashim Tachi (who used to be called Snake) in Skoplje, with all honors due to a statesman and not to a quickly promoted politician with a criminal background. At that time Georgijevski mentioned the recognition of an independent Kosovo and the opening of a diplomatic office in Pristina.

Even though there is little room for sarcasm in the situation in which Macedonia finds itself now, one other gaff by the Macedonian Prime Minister during the NATO bombing of FR Yugoslavia should be pointed out. Journalist Fanjo Cetinic documented in his book "Call NATO for Murder" that on May 11, 1999, Georgijevski stated in Thessalonica that "the crisis in Kosovo has a positive aspect" because "war presents a possibility for the development of the region." Cetinic's comment was "truly poor economy."

NO SAFETY NET: The majority of world magazines and analysts considered recently whether the conflict in Macedonia was imported. It appears that Swedish diplomat Karl Bilt was most successful in attempts to deal with this question, having stated that "and armed attack from Kosovo occurred near Tetovo with local support." Terrorists, extremists, radicals or guerillas (however they are dubbed) are really the minority for now, but the Albanians in Macedonia are evidently supporting them more with each new day. Taking this fact into account, many analysts (especially military analysts) tried to consider what the Macedonian army could do in a clash with armed Albanians. In the majority of these analyses there is mostly praise for the military knowledge of the extremists and suspicion that the Macedonian army can do anything to them. In a statement for Belgrade's daily Politika, former Chief of the Supreme Headquarters of the Macedonian Army, Mitre Arsovski claims that the army "is already lagging behind in the action in Tetovo" and is facing experienced and savage guerillas who showed their know-how in battle zones of Yugoslavia. General Arsovski believes that the guerillas could be neutralized with a special action. Former Minister of Internal and External Affairs of Macedonia, Ljubomir Frckovcski stated that if in the next ten days the army and the police do not defeat the Albanian terrorists in Tetovo and along the northern border, there will be no more Macednia.

Frckovski is certainly correct in liking the future survival with Macedonia' s dealing with the present crisis in a short time period, because an eventual downfall of Tetovo could quickly result in the cutting off of the entire western section of this country, right down to the Lake of Ohrid. The problem is that the path to rescue for Macedonia cannot be achieved through weapons, and that the solution to the problem does not lie in the answer to the question which is being posed often these days - what can the Macedonian army do, how many soldiers does it have, tanks and helicopters, or what is the percentage of Albanians in the Macedonian army. A few more days of serious clashes and shooting around Tetovo, with the first civilian casualties, and things would definitely escalate into disaster - in that case Macedonian society would be hopelessly split along ethnic lines, without possibility of ever constituting a government in which representatives of the two peoples could sit together. Albanians are entrenched in the attitude that they are victims of state terror and see a joint state exclusively as a "federation", just like some foreign media which call such a solution "transitional" - en rout to a final split. Even the Macedonia of yesterday, which was considered an "oasis of peace" in the Balkans, the ethnic distance between Macedonians and Albanians is fairly large, far greater than between the peoples of Bosnia and Herzegovina who finally came to war. The majority of Macedonians, however, believe that concessions to the terrorists must be stopped, otherwise Macedonia will soon stop to exist.

Until recently, Macedonia was described as a former Yugoslav Republic where no killing took place. As the first state to which the UN sent is mission (UNPREDEP) with the objective of stopping any problems, instead of, according to the rule, trying to force apart warring sides. Now Macedonia could once again get unique status because it is faltering, despite unanimous international support, where the international community lack any political concept for the Balkans. The citizens of Macedonia, who are increasingly appearing as pawns in a new geopolitical game, were convinced that the international community was holding a safety net beneath the tightrope of inter-ethnic coexistence which Macedonia walked all these years. Those who learned quickly that shooting pays, also realized as quickly that there is no safety net, and hoped that their allies in NATO would not even notice that there is renewed shooting. Analysts say that the conflict in Macedonia has yet to draw the attention of the American Administration, and that this alone could take time.

In the meantime, the "oasis of peace" could easily become a mirage.

WEAPONS

According to the Macedonian Finance Minister Nikla Grujevski, it appears that money for getting weapons is not a significant problem for the government in Skoplje. Grujevski explained to journalists that weapons are being bought and that equipment, ammunition and arms are already arriving. Foreign currency reserves of Macedonia presently amount to one and a half billion German marks, and the state bank appears to have received the 700 million German marks from the sale of their phone company. According to the Finance Minister, these are all guarantees that the state could finance a battle against the terrorists.

VICTIMS

As in every war, in this one which is taking swing on the slopes of Sar Mountain the most difficult information to get at are the actual losses on both sides. According to Albanian sources, Macedonian forces lost many soldiers and policemen thus far, but are hiding this fact. Macedonian media, on the other hand, report that 40 terrorists died in conflicts up to now and have been buried in neighboring villages during the night. Both sides claim for their sources to be "some people."

HURRY

Ljubomir Frckovski, Professor of Law in Skoplje, claims that if the terrorists are not defeated within ten days, there will be no Macedoni. According to him, a decisive role in the conflict could be played by NATO and the EU, but before the negotiation table is approached, Macedonia must defeat the terrorists. If Macedonia does not sit to the negotiating table as a victor, Frckoviski indicates that an international solution will be offered like in Dayton. In that case a regional solution would be very disadvantageous for Macedonia. Predicting that the terrorists will soon extend their activities toward Gostivar and other cities in western Macedonia, Frckovcki notes that the real intention of ONA is to ethnically cleanse western Macedonia and then, if it is not defeated, to demand a federalization of the country during negotiations.