The Dawn of May in April

After a one-month-long, official election campaign, this Sunday Montenegro will vote for its road into the future.  Offers are up for grabs and even though the election ballot has names of sixteen candidates, these elections can be boiled down to a future with international subjectivity or to a joint existence with Serbia and international subjectivity within those limits.  Admittedly this issue will not be finally resolved in these elections, but the elections will be yet another stop en route to the final resolution of this issue in the referendum.  If they were to get a two-thirds majority, supporters of Montenegro’s flag in the Palace of the United Nations on the East River (by the way, Montenegrin and Serbian flags are identical) will force a referendum and a peaceful conclusion to the present tensions.  On the other hand, if their challengers get over one third of the votes, such a conclusion would be brought into question.  That is why a high official in the Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia” says that all they need is one third majority of the Montenegrin parliament, which for them would be equivalent to victory.

Namely, according to the Montenegrin Constitution, for a referendum to be called, a two thirds majority is needed in the parliament, while the result of a referendum must be verified by the same margin.  The Montenegrin constitution also stipulates that a little over one-third minority of the electorate is sufficient to prevent nearly a two-thirds majority of the citizens of Montenegro from asserting their desire for a different national path.  Such election rules dictated the atmosphere the election campaign.

WHAT USED TO BE:  General opinion in Montenegro is that this rule holds true for the past hundred years.  One of the people who coined the phrase, “No Alternative to Yugoslavia” – Momir Bulatovic, stated colorfully, while describing his travels to the Hague Conference at which the resolution to the Yugoslav crisis was decided upon: armed with the position of his republican parliament at the time for adopting a decision which will be in the interests of Montenegro, Bulatovic, President of the Presidency, flew to Batajnica where he was awaited by the Yugoslav and Serbian leadership in order go together.  Oddly enough, however, Momir Bulatovic flew separately from his compadres in the other plane.  When both planes landed, Momir stated: “Totally flabbergasted, I told the colonel that I am going to the Hague, and not to Prague, where the he landed the plane.  He was kind enough to explain to me that the plane landed in order to fill up, even though it was filled to the brim at Batajnica.”  All this was sufficient for Bulatovic to be late to the Hague Summit by about three hours – the authors of this latency thoght that a three hour delay would be sufficient in order for the Hague Decision to be adopted in the absence of the President of the Montenegrin Presidium, who was not trusted at the time.  However, the decision in the Hague was not adopted in his absence, and a miracle happened – Momir signed Lord Carrington’s plan according to which all former Yugoslav republics are due to get their independence.  In his attempts to explain why he ultimately refused to sign, Momir Bulatovic did not manage to hide the fact that he was subjected to unprecedented pressures and threats, as well as to support from Podgorica, which gave him free reign.  Not naming anyone, Bulatovic stated that the civilian authorities were not involved in the application of pressure.  He tried to prove that subsequent analysis of the Hague document led him to think that some things in it are not good and that this later represented the reason for not signing.

When he was asked whether Momir Bulatovic was pressured into withdrawing his signature, Branko Kostic, Member of the Presidency of the SFRY, who flew with Slobodan Milosevic to the Hague, did not answer directly.  But he did state that in the airplane he was trying to convince his fellow-travelers to keep Momir Bulatovic, otherwise conflicts will arise in Montenegro, with their outcome being uncertain.  Branko Kostic’s candid statement convinced all “doubting Thomases” that Montenegrin leaders are chosen in Belgrade, with voters merely verifying what was already decided upon.

In another statement Kostic made (who continues to be a staunch supporter of Yugoslavia and one of the people who are expecting a victory by the pro-Yugoslav faction), he asserted that since 1990 he does not trust Momir Bulatovic, Milo Djukanovic, nor Svetozar Marovic, because at that moment they evinced separatist signals and as such represent a menace for Yugoslavia.  However, this has been demystified, along with many phenomena, decisions and personalities on the Montenegrin and Yugoslav political scene.  The signal has been given for development to take place behind the scene, far removed from the eyes of the people, in whose name all this was done.  It is now clear why in the elections for President of Montenegro, Slobodan Milosevic supported Branko Kostic and Momir Bulatovic, who was the candidate of the ruling party in Montenegro.  It is only guessed at what was registered on the tapes which Momir Bulatovic was supposedly blackmailed with.  That is why there is no guessing about the fact that all candidates with support from Belgrade lost in Montenegro in the past three years.  First, Branko Kostic lost from Bulatovic, and then Momir Bulatovic, who was supported by Slobodan Milosevic, lost three consecutive times to Milo Djukanovic.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN:  As the close of the election campaign is drawing near, passions are aflame, with debates between opposing camps becoming sharper and expectations of a calm election race vanishing before the voters eyes.  Everyone is campaigning with no holds barred, giving a general impression of straining to come up with something that will win a few extra points.  The arguments of the pro-Yugoslav block are that the election process is highly irregular, especially with regard to voters’ lists.  The occasional graffiti, “Death to Serbs” in pro-Yugoslav media is being interpreted as a signal that a separatist government will result in renewed pogrom against Serbs. 

Pro-Yugoslav parties (SNP, NSS, NS, SNS and Vojislav Seselj’s Radicals) are appealing most frequently to the defense of the Serbian land, nation and church, which has all been seen at the time of the Milosevic’s ascent to power.  The Montenegrin land and nation are being belittled more and more, which is why in the pro-Montenegrin block there is satisfied gloating that this will only bring in votes for them.  The leader of the SNP, Predrag Bulatovic is in all likelihood aware of this.  He was forced into not choosing allies and is appearing at his election rallies as someone who is countering his supporters.  Whenever they shout “this is Serbia” his response is “no, this is Montenegro.”  In Pljevlje he met his greatest trial.  He publicly asked Djukanovic there whether he negotiated a spliting of Montenegro.  He answered heckles from the audience of “Kill, kill” by explaining that his is a coalition which “brings love to Montenegro”: “You, my good lads, are the guarantee that Albanians and Muslims can live in peace and quiet in Montenegro…”

In the Montenegrin block the debate is still being waged regarding the issue who is more pro-Yugoslav and who is ready to protect Yugoslavia more.  Momir Bulatovic’s Socialist People’s Party is harshly accusing the leadership of the SNP and the People’s Party, declaring them as guilty, before proven so, of a possible loss by the supporters of a joint state with Serbia in the elections.

On the other hand, coalition “Victory for Montenegro – democratic coalition Milo Djukanovic” is asserting that no one has the right to permit the disappearance of Montenegro, which is inevitable in the event that Montenegro enters upcoming Euro-Atlantic integration together with Serbia.  Djukanovic stated that this Yugoslavia has clearly demonstrated that it is dysfunctional, and accuses both Bulatovics that they have already split asunder two political parties and one state, being unable to protect the present state.  He suggested to Predrag Bulatovic that he can only be the president of his local community Smailagica Field in Kolasin, assuming that his tribesmen do not turn their backs on him.

Djukanovic is announcing parliamentary victory with a margin of 39 to a total of 77 seats.  He is wishing for a post-election coalition with the Liberal Alliance so that after the referendum Montenegro would once again get its statehood of a hundred and twenty years ago.

At this moment the desire for their own state among Montenegrins is highest that it has ever been in the past ten years.  The general opinion is that this awareness will decide the outcome of the elections.  The majority will not be thinking about the quality of the governing over Montenegro up to now.