State Adventure

As a Montenegrin citizen, I admit that I am happy that I don’t have the right to vote at these elections and that I won’t be asked who I prefer there. If someone were to thrust a Montenegrin ballot at me, I would probably handle it in the same way those old ladies in Florida did, and no technique would be able to find out who I had voted for.

Well, the fact that someone finds it difficult to choose isn’t by itself unusual, but what we have here are elections which will determine the status and borders of the state we are living in. A person shouldn’t be indifferent to that and to peacefully allow others to decide on it. There is no dilemma there, I am not a fan of procreating states without greater misfortune, but the stupid thing in Montenegro is that in that case a person must vote for the coalition which contains Milosevic’s former fellow fighters, people who look decidedly ill at ease in DOS suits.

Their true leader has been defeated and arrested, their recycling in the federal government was very superficial and partial and then again, on the other side are the separatists who have embarked upon a highly dangerous state adventure. Djukanovic has turned out to be a European whom Europe not only doesn’t support, he is currently also the least obedient one and presents the greatest problem of its kind on this continent. Those who are already there are trying to show him the way, but he claims to know better and is moving in the opposite direction, since he first has to run away from Serbia.

On top of that, Serbia is neither holding on to nor chasing after him, but an altogether different belief is nurtured in Montenegro. Djukanovic’s cautious separatism was, namely, fairly well justified and easily explained while Milosevic was free and in power. Without a clear threat from Belgrade, those policies have become senseless, groundless, risky and questionable, which is why all signals from Belgrade which could be interpreted as hegemony and a hint of a Greater Serbia are carefully monitored, collected and somewhat exaggerated in Podgorica.

In the extreme sense, that wish for a breakup with Serbia in Montenegro is acquiring an expression which by its grotesqueness, the amount of hatred and stupidity can only be compared with the one we had seen, listened to and read about in Serbia a few years ago. However, that is a phenomenon which is more in the realm of a cultural column. As far as politics are concerned, it shouldn’t be governed by hatred or fear, but if in this case a rational explanation does exist, I don’t see it.

First of all, the idea of secession in Montenegro wasn’t strong enough even in the worst periods; the Milosevic-inclined opposition carried on without any difficulties and narrowly lost the elections owing to the very opposition to separatism. In Serbia Milosevic, immediately after his defeat, lost almost all support, while his fraternal party of Bulatovics in Montenegro held on strongly until today, with or without Milosevic. That is why Djukanovic never dared come out with open intentions for secession and even in these elections he didn’t enter into a coalition with the liberals who are unambiguously in favor of it, but instead retained the topic of federal sovereign states.

Naturally, after the elections, Djukanovic’s coalition will join its votes with the liberals, which is slightly deceitful but totally legitimate in politics. That means that, with a lot of effort, with a forced story of a Greater Serbian threat, with some support from slightly obscure US circles and with the promise that they will come to an agreement with Belgrade in the end, Djukanovic will probably find himself in the position to undertake the operation of secession. 

Will he see things through to the end then, or will he hesitate on the threshold and ask Serbia from there what its last offer is? I don’t know the answer, but I have the feeling that there are no good policies for Montenegro anymore nor a totally favorable outcome in any alternative. Not even if Djukanovic wins with a landslide, nor if his opponents chalk up an unexpectedly good result, nor if they move towards secession, nor if that somehow falls through…

Relations with Serbia have already been damaged, internal relations in Montenegro have also been damaged, relations with the minorities will also be damaged and relations with the other neighbors haven’t significantly been improved, nor have strong guarantees been received from a greater power. Such a small country could be a pleasant place to live in if it is protected, rich and peaceful within, but if it lacks all that then it’s better to run as far away from it as possible. However, there can be no happiness even if Montenegro remains in any kind of federation or confederation with Serbia either.

That’s probably why these fateful elections seem so unpleasant, I believe not only to me. Now it isn’t easy to uncover when and where a wrong move was made, especially since in Montenegro for a few years everything was going really well, maybe better than ever. A lot of money which wasn’t earned and which belonged to others was distributed to the people who will want to know who is to blame when that stops, and the most probable culprit will be the one who has kept Montenegro with Serbia, or the one who separated it. Some of it will unavoidably fall upon Milo Djukanovic’s shoulders, even though the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) too, after its victory, might have made a mistake by relying too seriously on the Socialist People’s Party (SNP), which could have pushed Djukanovic even further away than he himself wanted. 

Naturally, it’ll take a while before it becomes clear to everyone that Montenegro hasn’t joined the European community of the rich and happy quickly and irrevocably, just as it couldn’t join the most enlightened countries even though it had one of the first printing houses in Europe. That doesn’t mean that such attempts don’t deserve respect and admiration, but the problem is that failures threaten to incite disappointment and mutual accusations, and this time Belgrade will surely be the natural culprit.