Flexing Of Muscles

If Yugoslav Prime Minister Milan Panic does manage to sack Mihalj Kertes, Deputy of Minister of police, then that will be the greatest result of the London Conference. All that has been agreed on and achieved there does not mean much; all those promises, guarantees and concessions will mean little if Mr. Panic does not manage to break the criminal-conspiratorial nucleus of Milosevic's regime in Belgrade, in which Kertes holds one of the key positions. This move, made on the side-lines, seems at first glance unconnected to the Conference, and could result in making Kertes a leading figure, something not achieved by all those cameras and floodlights.

It was only after Panic had sent instructions to his Minister of police Pavle Bulatovic demanding Kertes's dismissal, did most of us learn that he had been Bulatovic's deputy and head of the federal security service, i.e. the secret police. Kertes, a man whose frequent public appearances had made many laugh and who had even been somewhat forgotten, had come a long way.

It seems that his place in the Serbian Parliament had only served to give him the necessary immunity, as Kertes was rarely seen there. A few months before becoming the head of a powerful service which leaves little evidence and witnesses of its activities, Kertes proved himself in the field, mostly in Bosnia-Herzegovina. If there is any truth to the numerous stories, the suspicions and indications, Kertes could prove one of the main organizers of this dirty war; he, at any rate, is well-informed of secrets concerning arms, various uniforms, regular and irregular units and their affairs.

Apart from a proven ruthlessness, Kertes owes his career to the fact that with him around, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic could see himself as a wise and reserved politician, and this is the key to understanding the promotion of leaders such as Vojislav Seselj and his party (leader of the Serbian Radical Party - SRS). Finally, and this is very important, Milosevic could always count on Kertes's absolute loyalty. Milosevic made him. Kertes knew how to let Milosevic know that he owed him his success and would die for him.

If it should prove that Milosevic is forced to sacrifice Kertes, it will be a sure sign that he has lost the power battle which has just started and which must be finished before the elections. Because, if everybody stays put, and if it is not clear that President of Yugoslavia Dobrica Cosic and Prime Minister Panic have managed to strip Milosevic of power, the uninformed people could, once again, vote for the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS).

The main protagonists are probably already aware of the results of their secret, nauseating, manoeuvring battles. Perhaps a sufficient number of generals have turned away from Milosevic for personal, not political reasons, making it easier on Cosic who does not want Milosevic to leave humiliated and broken as that could cause shock waves and perhaps even bring into question Milosevic's political and war legacy, something that Cosic holds dear. Cosic would probably prefer to make a nice speech at his departure. One full of respect and thanks.

However, Milosevic does not seem to like all this, but he has already met with defeat over POLITIKA (a Belgrade daily). Independent journalism seems to have gained a little, but it is more likely that POLITIKA simply changed its management. Now they want to deprive Milosevic of something bigger -- Kertes and the secret police. If the whole thing is not spontaneous, then it is a cunning scheme - to hit from London, while the Conference is in session. The host is not at home and Panic is telling the world and Serbia why his hands are tied. Milosevic is weak in London, Panic at his strongest.

In Belgrade, all are silent for the time being, at least all those who could say something. Good news or rumours are coming from London. Milosevic has allegedly demanded of Panic's minister Bulatovic to leave Kertes where he is and disobey the Prime Minister. This was followed by orders from London for Kertes's arrest, but to make the muddle even greater, Kertes was in London at the time. While this ill-omened debate was under way, a real war was going on behind the scenes, one from which all except Kertes expect to return home safely, on condition of course, that Milosevic agrees to Cosic's speech -- when the time is right. And, finally, we need not worry about Kertes, he can after all, always call on his immunity as a deputy.

Panic explained that his decision to dismiss Kertes was based on a disagreement with Kertes's policy of promoting ethnic cleansing, his last task as Milosevic's strongman. The matter obviously refers to Hrtkovci, where Kertes seems to have been the main patron of Seselj's patriots who expelled the local Croats. The following links have become indisputably clear: Milosevic-Kertes-Seselj, or rather the SPS-SDB (state security)-SRS (Serbian Radical Party).

Conjectures of possible showdowns and a civil war in Serbia still lack serious arguments, but are attaining a somewhat realistic structure, epecially in the case of Kertes. The main mystery concerns the amount of arms which have been issued to Seselj's, Arkan's and similar groups in Serbia and Montenegro. Does Kertes or anybody else for that matter have any evidence? The majority of these men certainly have some combat experience and that is living proof of Serbia's involvement in the Bosnian war. International pressure resulted in the withdrawal of many (all?), but not in their disarming. Could they now become some kind of reserve army of Slobodan Milosevic, in the event that the real army refuses to take orders. Is Mihalj Kertes the secret Supreme Commander of this secret army? Can these people progress from the events in Hrtkovci to attempting a coup in Belgrade?

I am inclined to believe that this violence will not come about, and that all will remain at the level of a flexing of muscles. The whole matter pertains to the internal breaking up of an, until recently, united movement which also means that both sides know all about each other. But, we must wait for them all to return from London and for a summary of the Conference to be made in Serbia. It could be harmful for Cosic and Panic if an impresson were created that they have capitulated, while sanctions have not been lifted. If, however, all is presented as being Milosevic's fault and that things could be put right without him, then he is finished. Which version will be enforced on the public depends on the distribution of influence among the media, but Milosevic has certainly lost because of the very fact that the Conference was not a complete disaster.

Of all that which Prime Minister Panic has promised, perhaps the most dangerous is the promise that war criminals and those responsible for ethnic cleansing will be arrested and punished. In carrying out this promise, Panic has already met with fierce resistance in Hrtkovci. For the present, the federal government probably does not have enough strength to carry things out to the end. There are too many guilty men, they have arms and could use them. It is important, however, that they should realize that the times are changing, and that their great protector is no longer what he once was.

There is nothing to keep Mihalj Kertes from returning to Backa Palanka and a quiet life down memory lane. They say that he used to be fond of fishing. If he is allowed to keep his pistol, he will be able to fire it at somebody's wedding -- for old times' sake. But, there will not be any speeches for Mihalj Kertes .