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June 1, 2001
. Vreme News Digest Agency No 493
State of the Affairs

The Third Man

by Stojan Cerovic

Nebojsa Covic is returning home as a winner. In better times, a ceremonial welcome would have been organized on that occasion, and a title of Duke of Bujanovac, Knight of Cerevajka or some such thing wouldn’t have bypassed Covic. This is the first Serbian victory after god knows how long, but no one seems to be in the mood for celebrations and festivities, since in the meantime many catastrophic defeats were triumphantly celebrated and praised. Beside that, someone will say that this wasn’t a real victory, there was no great battle nor deaths, it had more to do with diplomatic wrangling, and one can’t even say that only Serbs profited from it, Albanians did as well, at least the civilians. 

What we have here is such an essential change of behavior that it presents even better news than October Fifth. What was obtained or salvaged isn’t only a piece of territory which doesn’t look big, especially if we remember what isn’t in Serbia and was planned to be, from Karlobag downwards. We obtained, more than anything, another formula for resolving problems. Unlike Milosevic’s, Covic’s formula is civil, it doesn’t start with shooting as the first and basic principle, as the goal towards which every dispute must lead.

Acting contrarily to Belgrade’s firm belief that in disputes with the Albanians historical books, national songs, the Church and the Academy of Science are of greatest use, Covic dared to visit the terrain and remain there as long as needed. With that, he violated the first rule which went: don’t come even close because you will be tempted to believe your eyes instead of myths, and you won’t understand a thing. The former Belgrade mayor approached his task in a cool and sober way, as though he was dealing with a utility problem instead of the very essence of the national being. He dared to take into account first of all the circumstances as he found them, instead of a moment in time where history and legend meet. He had in front of him live people, Serbs, Albanians, civilians, soldiers, women, children and he didn’t close his eyes to see only eternal enemies. He knew how to discern between those who were shooting and those who were afraid and to send each a message he or she deserves. This was a case in which Serbia had to show the international community that it knows how to restrain itself from using excessive force and to build multinational trust, and the criterion must have been especially strict.

We’ve passed the test, that is the government did, i.e. Covic, and that success is probably more valuable than anything else the new government had done so far, because everything else was easier. Covic didn’t miss a single chance to make a good will gesture towards the Albanians. When one of the guerilla leaders, “captain Lassie” was killed, Covic remembered to commend his contribution to the resolution of the problem, which was impressive, it doesn’t cost a thing, it brings a lot in return and leads towards reconciliation. It seems easy and simple, but no one here has done such things for a long time. Although everyone here is still withholding praises for anyone, Covic must feel that he has returned from south Serbia in a grand manner and that his words are more carefully listened to now. His ambition must have grown as well, but for now it isn’t apparent that he wants to capitalize on his success immediately. On the contrary, as though he hasn’t had enough field tasks, he has come out with some ideas for Kosovo and seems to be nominating himself to resolve that issue as well. To mention a division, even if only in the form of entities, sounds blasphemous here due to mysterious reasons, but if even Covic now can’t or doesn’t dare to decisively and clearly launch that idea and obtain general support for it, then the situation is rather hopeless.

It might be that the Kosovo issue is still too painful and burdened with mythological residue for the Serbs to rationally negotiate ever, with anyone, and will instead have to lose it in its entirety, finally and irrevocably. If even Covic after his success in south Serbia, or the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) after their absolute victory, unhindered and undisputed, aren’t capable of saying that Kosovo is lost, that maybe a small piece of it can be retained and even for that, persistent negotiations must be held, then all of us remain Milosevic’s hostages on that issue.

Now that he has proven himself and developed certain trust of both the Albanians and the international community, Covic should be given free rein to test his strength in Kosovo as well. However, if nothing comes of it, if Covic turns towards Belgrade politics, it could appear that in the meantime he has become the third man in Serbia. The question is, naturally, whether Serbia needs a third man at all or are even two too much, where one will have to move away. 

If no one has patience to endure this peaceful coexistence, these boring non-attacks between Djindjic and Kostunica, if their conflict is being prophesied and gladly awaited from all sides, if, therefore, it turns out to be inevitable, then I feel that the Covic factor would have to become important and useful. He doesn’t head a large party, and what he has is called the Democratic Alternative, which doesn’t really mean anything and doesn’t fit into the well-known ideological categories. That means that Covic’s political profile is very vague, which is contrary to his newly acquired weight and prestige. He could be close to both Djindjic and Kostunica, and it would be easier for him to stand by himself, as the third leg, like someone who is outside of that conflict, yet is the man in charge of the most difficult tasks. 

Could Covic acquire or fight for the role of stabilizer, which moves between two parties, keeps the balance and salvages DOS until it needs to be salvaged? If that is necessary, he would probably know how to, although political games can be a lot more complex than anything he had to deal with around Presevo and Bujanovac. What if he soon looks back on those lovely days with a sigh when he chased around the woods with captain Lassie?

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