Wind in Djukanovic's Sails

As was announced these days, the depths of the Adriatic Sea off the coast of Montenegro hide in them considerable stores of natural gas and oil.  Keeping in mind the fact that new elections and a referendum have still not been called in Montenegro, as well as the fact that news about a significant discovery has been confirmed by certain international authorities in this area, the origin of Montenegrin oil and natural gas is most probably not political in nature as was the case with Milosevic’s oil fields around Pozarevac.  Of course, this does not mean that this news item will not be exploited for political purposes in a referendum, let us say.

The Government in Podgorica, which is slowly regrouping after the April election shock, after the blackmail coming from the Liberals, after the “Zagreb dossiers” on cigarette smuggling and after the spectacular, publicized criminal activities of the former friends of the regime – none of this could be as interesting as one other gazer (this one a truly political one) which opened up these days following insistent refusal by the Socialist People’s Party to support the draft of the law on cooperation with the Hague Tribuna.  This “gazer” will bring immediate profit to the government in Podgorica, with no further “digging” required.  This profit is especially clear for opponents of the FRY who find clear indications that the federal state has no reason to exist in the disagreement between federal coalition partners, DOS and the SNP, on the draft of the Hague law.

PASSING THE BALL:  The same day that this text is going to print (Wednesday afternoon), DOS and SNP leaders should meet once again in the cabinet of FRY President Vojislav Kostunica and announce that same evening a decision which will largely determine the survival risks of the federal state.  Regardless of someone’s greater or smaller aversion toward the Hague Tribunal and the evident selectiveness of the justice being dealt out by that court, a lot is depending on the decision to support or not to support the law on cooperation with the Hague.  For instance, the speed with which the initiated reforms (if they have been initiated in earnest) will unfold, then the speed and the encompassing nature of the return of this state into all international institutions, writing off of debts, the Donators Conference set for June 29, as well as the ability of this state to face its immediate past, as well as whether this entire year will be irretrievably lost in new political squabbles, in elections and referendums, after which even daily sources of oil and natural gas from somewhere could hardly help us.

At the beginning of discussions on this law, the SNP attempted to pass the ball into DOS’s court.  Announcing “the unanimous opinion” of all party committees and the Head Committee of his party, SNP President Predrag Bulatovic demanded during the previous meeting in Kostunica’s cabinet that the entire issue of cooperating with the Hague be transferred to the level of the republics.  Members of DOS refused this proposal and insisted on a federal law, but did open the door to compromise by claiming that all actions relating to cooperation with the Tribunal in the Hage would be transferred to republican officials.  In direct talks with SNP leaders, it was announced that the draft of the federal law is in a way legal protection for everyone whose name appears on Hague indictment lists.  Without this law, but also in the case of disintegration of the federal state, certain members of DOS claim that what would happen is precisely what SNP is trying to avoid – mass extraditions without the possibility of holding domestic trials for certain the indicted individuals.  Other arguments that were heard were that the federal law is necessary because that is the only way in which Hague cases that concern members of the Yugoslav Army can be taken up.

In this way the ball was passed back into Podgorica’s court with the message, articulated by Serbian Prime Minister Djindjic, that “Yugoslavia wont be held hostage neither by Milosevic, nor the SNP.”  On Wednesday morning the Executive Committee of the SNP will once again consider the situation (which has objectively not changed), and following this the SNP delegation will once again head to Belgrade.  Bulatovic himself confirmed that the situation is changing from one hour to the next and also announced that the SNP is not set on staying in the federal government at all cost, that his party will support a minority federal government or a government of experts, or will even raise its hand for a new federal election, that the situation is not all that dramatic, and that finally, the survival of the FRY is not in question.  Otherwise, Batic complained on several occasions about the Serbian Minister of Justice Vladan Batic who is “capable of antagonizing even the supporters of a joint FRY with his irritating statements,” forcing them to conclude that they do not need a Yugoslavia in which “one Batic can insult us all.”  The leaders of the SNP were evidently irritated by statements that provincial backwaters of Mojkovac and Pluzine should not be put in a position to decide the fate of the federal state and of nine million citizens – and all this less than forty days after Mojkovac and Pluzine were praised by Belgrade and DOS for having significantly influenced the Montenegrin parliamentary elections and proving the vitality of the idea of joint life between Serbia and Montenegro.

Looked at from Podgorica’s perspective, SNP’s attitude of refusing to vote on the law for cooperating with the Tribunal (above all with regard to the clause in that law concerning extradition of Yugoslav citizens) could open up a greater rift within coalition “For Yugoslavia”, given that SNP’s coalition partner, the People’s Party, openly supports the passing of this federal law.  In this way a lot of the political points generated by the Liberal Alliance of Montenegro precisely for this coalition would be annulled, given that the Liberals managed to create a similar rift in the opposing camp with their open “dislike for Milo Djukanovic” and prior maneuvering on the makeup of the new Montenegrin government, with resultant rifts in the pro-Montenegrin, independent political block.

Several nights ago, after the second unsuccessful attempt by DOS representatives and the SNP leadership to reach a compromise on the “Hague law,” with a strained smile the Federal Minister of External Affairs Goran Svilanovic briefly announced before gathered journalists that “the only people who can profit by all this are Milo (Djukanovic) and Carla (del Ponte).”  Belgrade’s political scientist Srbobran Brankovic, Director of Medium, and agency for public opinion research, stated for VREME that the SNP is behaving toward the draft of this crucial law like a boxer who manages to make his opponent groggy and then suddenly helps him to his feet and enables him to recuperate completely.  “It is a fact that such things happen in politics and that this time the SNP is really helping Djukanovic to consolidate power after the elections, as well as proving with this case that it is impossible to find common language over vital issues in a two member federation,” Brankovic points out.  Dragan Soc, President of Montenegro’s People’s Party also stated in an interview for VREME that with its refusal to support the draft of this crucial law, the SNP is directly “putting wind in Djukanovic’s sails” and enabling him to continue where he left off after the recent elections.  “We joint together in Coalition ‘For Yugoslavia’ in order to rescue the federal state.  We are again in a situation, after four good moves, to stumble on the fifth and to make a move which could endanger the survival of that joint state.  I hope that our coalition partner, the SNP will carefully consider this next move and will avoid directly helping Djukanovic,” Soc stated.

RESCUER OR UNDERTAKER:  Those who think that the SNP leadership is merely haggling indefinitely, slamming doors angrily and muddying up otherwise clear water in order that everything will appear a lot more complicated than it really is, playing the role of a lady with questionable morals who is sending DOS the message “don’t demand things so fast, ask me several more times” – such people are simplifying things and are probably not right.  This is how many members of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) see things, convinced that ultimately their coalition partners until yesterday will ultimately sign the law on cooperating with the Hague and will in that way trample on “the dignity of the state” on which they insisted together with the SPS.  The SPS insists that it was assured by SNP that it will not vote on lifting parliamentary immunity for Nikola Sainovic and Jovan Zebic, important members of the SPS, and later they trampled on this promise.  Certain DOS leaders evidently think that the train on which DOS found itself with SNP has evidently gained speed to a point that it is no longer possible for Predrag Bulatovic to do anything to jump off this train the way he used to do with Milosevic – after consulting with his base and a “no” response, he will wait for conditions to change and for the answer to be transmuted into a “yes.”

For those who are familiar with the history of this political party and the structure of its membership, the present slamming of doors by people from SNP and the anarchy-prone language they are resorting to does not appear staged.  Until several months ago Slobodan Milosevic was a kind of icon for members of this political party.  During last years’ September elections for federal parliament, SPS, JUL and SNP ran jointly as coalition partners, and Milosevic himself came to Montenegro as FRY President and held a speech in Berane where later one Belgrade TV station resorted to special effects in order to make the number of Milosevic’s supporters appear greater than it really was.  The man who was praised to the heavens until yesterday is now sitting in jail and has strong prospects of getting to the Hague, which is something that the SNP membership would hardly like to see, and which is a situation that is not outside the realm of possibility according to the proposed law for cooperation with the Hague Tribunal.  At the same time, Predrag Bulatovic knows very well that if his party supports this law, his image will not get off Montenegrin state TV as the person and member of a party which does not ascribe too much importance to promises.  “If the SNP keeps its word, Predrag Bulatovic and his fellow members will also hardly be left out from every news program.  In that case they will be accused for having wrapped Milosevic around their necks, and have dragged back the entire federation with them.  And the new elections in Montenegro could be called as early as tomorrow.  The SNP is in a way hostage to the political situation in that republic.  The Liberals placed an ambush for Milo Djukanovic and through their parliamentary president they can always force an election.  If there wasn’t this threat of a possible early election, the SNP would be a lot more cooperative in adopting the drafted law on cooperation with the Hague Tribunal.  This way they are left with playing ridiculous patriotism or to cede after numerous pressures,” Srbobran Brankovic comments on the situation.

SNP’s refusal to support the law on cooperation with the Hague in federal parliament could make this political party the undertaker of Yugoslavia as we know it.  As in real life, in politics also one rarely gets quite as lost as when one is adamant about knowing the way.  (Djukanovic himself could act as witness to this truth, having been convinced leading into the recent elections in Montenegro that there is no way he can stray away from independence.)  President of Montenegro’s People’s Party, Dragan Soc claims that this possibility is not ruled out and that SNP is presently affixing its name to the future of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, stressing that it could unwillingly amplify the present crisis on defining this state and could produce its end.  “The law on cooperation with the Hague Tribunal is not important because of what the West is demanding from us, but because we need to finally come to terms with Milosevic’s heritage.  If several months ago the SNP had the strength to pull away from Milosevic, if they had the courage to clear up this issue among themselves, then I don’t see why they shouldn’t summon the strength now to strike a compromise.  Everything else merely complicates relations in the FRY.  The fall of the federal government at this moment could only have long term consequences on the fate of this state,” Dragan Soc states.

Thoughts on how a resolution of an eventual breakup of a federal government coalition could be resoled with a minority government or the calling of a new election (the SNP has not ruled out these options) are fairly superficial views of the new situation.  A minority DOS government could only make sense if it is accepted that the law on cooperation with the Hague is in fact not important because the FRY committed to this cooperation even earlier.  Those who are familiar with the balance of power within DOS itself state that under such conditions (assuming that the law is not passed at all), the situation would develop in the following manner: the moment Kostunica left the country for a period longer than two days or was out of reach, someone from here would end up in the Hague.  As far as the new elections are concerned, they only make sense if it is known with certainty what kind of state the elections are being organized for, and no one knows this with absolute certainty at this moment.  It is logical to expect that such an election would not include Djukanovic’s block, as well as the majority of political parties in Serbia.  Hence the messages being sent by younger members of DOS these days that “if SNP is not willing, the People’s Party is – let the People’s Party sweep them out in the Montenegrin elections and let DOS make a new coalition with them” – which of course is a stupidity that few take seriously.  The leader of the People’s Party Dragan Soc states that new elections are senseless in a situation in which everything is “hanging” and in which they could speed up the definite disintegration of the federal state.

A state which is shaking by the roots over a single law evidently does not have a firm foundation.  Someone might say that it is hard to find cases of state instability similar to this, but admittedly it is equally as hard to find a case where a state was required to extradite its former president to an international court.  Especially when former presidents of neighboring countries number among the living, as well as the dead.