Labus is a Little Nervous

The Together for Yugoslavia coalition has hinted on Monday that it will request that the new federal parliament has 18 members, of which nine ministers from Montenegro and an equal number from Serbia, and that the decision-making process in the federal parliament is to be defined so as to disable "outvoting" in all important issues.

In reality, that means a request for introducing a veto, or consensual decision-making, which was applied in the former SFRY presidency and in the SFRY parliament prior to 1991, but not in the then acting Federal Executive Council, which could pass a so-called temporary measure in case the parliament was blocked.

It is questionable how that Montenegrin demand is in concord with the concept of a functional federation, which FRY president Vojislav Kostunica suggested in his initiative a few months ago. A mixed expert commission from the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) and the For Yugoslavia coalition are working on defining that constitutional platform and it's announcement is expected after the new government is constituted.

Actually, both of the main Montenegrin parties, besides Lukashenko, are the only communists who never fell from power (after the break in 1997, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) continued to rule in Montenegro, and the Socialist People's party (SNP) in FR Yugoslavia), their politicians are also the creators of the "Zabljak", "Milosevic's", "Markovic's" or whatever it's called FRY constitution from 1992.

The DOS members, having taken over power last autumn, found themselves in a situation where they had to defend parts of the constitution from its creators and the remainders of the state as stale leftovers after a feast. Some of them, like Kostunica, started off from the position that any kind of constitutional basis is better than bare political will. Others, like the Serbian justice minister Batic these days, says that the constitution isn't the Bible.

KEY TO THE STRONGBOX: SNP announced that it accepts Kostunica's model of a functional federation with minimum functions. With that platform, it raised itself from the dead at the republic parliamentary elections in Montenegro last spring and possibly even earned a slight advantage amongst the voters of the Montenegrin nationality. The DOS members insulted SNP when they applied some of Slobodan Milosevic's methods when they extradited him (by passing a decree with a quorum "made up of those who remained", by managing government affairs via a deputy prime minister just like after Ante Markovic and Milan Panic and by "protecting Serbian interests", just like in 1990, when Serbia stopped paying funds into the state budget). Now the budget is serviced by Serbia and boycotted by Montenegro, yet from the Montenegrins loyal to the federal state, the following has emerged: a) a demand to separate the current Economic Ministry into the Ministry of Internal Trade and the Economic Ministry; b) a demand to introduce a Ministry of Economic Relations with Foreign Countries; c) it was conditioned that it no longer falls under the jurisdiction of (DOS's) deputy prime minister.  

That has the appearance of undermining the position of the main Yugoslav negotiator Miroljub Labas, who still has a difficult match with the creditors in the London and Paris clubs ahead of him. It is then logical to expect that deputy prime minister in resignation to react with an open letter (to Kostunica, Djindjic and Zizic) in which he says that he is going on a well deserved holiday and kindly asks someone to inform him when the farce is concluded. Labus says neither he nor G17 Plus are interested in any government which won't enable stability and a continuation of the commenced reforms. He adds that in his absence, his duties could be performed by president Zizic, since he'd been doing his job instead of him for eight months. Naturally, a Bengali fire flared immediately over that. Zizic cracks a joke that Labus wasn't working instead of him, but for him, i.e. what he, Zizic, as president of the government, instructed him to do, and what the government had decided on. He also adds a violation of discipline: Labus didn't request holiday leave which the government would have granted him, instead he addressed the public, which means he's become a bit nervous and that he truly is in need of a vacation.  

Therefore, DOS wants to control federal finances. Labus says that the position of federal minister of finance should go to Serbia, and that (here we come to the terrain of a different auction) it can go to someone from the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS). The new DSS parliamentary group leader in the Serbian parliament Dejan Mihajlov, however, cooling the flames, says that no talk has yet been held on ministerial positions, that reactions shouldn't be emotional, that things are moving in the agreed direction and that one should be optimistic.

On DOS's side, an imperative was stressed that this interim federal government should continue with FRY's reintegration into the international community, i.e. into the political, financial and trade organizations which it hasn't been integrated to yet. In certain statements (like Batic's) it was also added that the condition for forming a new coalition agreement was also that no declarations should condemn, annul or disavow the decision of the Serbian government on Slobodan Milosevic's extradition. The interim government, whose duration is limited, should preserve the union of the two republics until the completion of the Montenegrin referendum, until a more permanent arrangement can be made. If it is formed at all, it will be the last government in a federation which is constructed this way.

DJINDJIC'S TEMPO: Naturally, this also reflected the standoff between the Democratic Party (DS) and DSS. Last week certain DS officials frequently reminded us that Mr. Djindjic has good relations with Djukanovic, while Mr. Kostunica has good relations with SNP. It could be surmised that Djindjic hoped for yet another of Kostunica's failures and that he has moved in and "seized the baton".

Djindjic, fast as God has made him, caused some confusion these days when he announced that "we have a platform we will propose to the Montenegrins". In (mainly) the media inclined towards Djindjic, which is definitely damaging more than clarifying the situation, speculations emerged on "Djindjic's platform". It turned out that no special "Montenegrin" platform exists in Nemanjina 11, and that Djindjic was referring to the platform which DOS is coordinating with the For Yugoslavia coalition.

In that interim period, both Montenegrin groups are obviously calculating with disputes inside DOS. Members of the Montenegrin For Yugoslavia coalition stress that the mediator for talks on new relations between the two republics should exclusively be the president of FRY Vojislav Kostunica, while others seem suspicious to them, and from the new Montenegrin government an initiative has emerged for talks between the Serbian and Montenegrin governments "which can also be attended by FRY president Kostunica". To that, Serbian prime minister Djindjic precisely answers "it isn't possible to separately negotiate with the government of Serbia or with a part of DOS".

In this point, his statement coincides with the statement of DSS's spokesman Milorad Jovanovic, who said that once the platform of the constitutional proposal is put on the table, the presidents of both republic (Serbian and Montenegrin) governments, members of the federal government, and FRY president Dr. Vojislav Kostunica will have to sit at it.

Djindjic probably didn't want to "usurp Kostunica's project", what's more, he probably wanted to improve relations with Kostunica following the St. Vitus Day tensions. He announced that he didn't want to weaken Kostunica, on the contrary, he wants to see a strong Kostunica who takes responsibility. If relations between those two politicians aren't fatally poisoned, Kostunica could interpret that as a hand of reconciliation, and if they are, he will understand the message as yet one more poisoned barb. That can be a barb, considering previous criticism of Kostunica's hesitation and political talk, refined to the point of being unintelligible. This propaganda barb-throwing is revived by a national view on Kostunica, apparent from the following conversation which our reporter overheard in public transport: "Really stupid, he fined me for alcohol levels in my blood, and not, do you understand..." "Were you drinking?" "Well, it's really silly, he honed down on that..." "Listen, did you or didn't you drink? Speak clearly! Don't start talking like Kostunica!"

Kostunica gives precedence to moderation and balance and his problem lies in the fact that in this process the cutting edge is lost - and he leaves the impression that he doesn't have strategic initiative. Pasic was even more ambiguous in his statements, but he managed to convey the following message to his voters: "This guy knows what he's doing..." Kostunica will have to "traipse through at least two more Albanias" before people can perceive him in this manner.

It isn't in the interest of the reformists in the Serbian government (nor prime minister Djindjic personally) if the commenced work was to be halted by some fundamental crisis in the Serbian government nor by a conflict with popular Kostunica.

Outsiders are pushing DS and the rest of DOS to give up their generator of support to Kostunica, and in chorus with them DS activists are hinting that he should be "brought down just like he was built up". And, on the other side, certain circles are probably trying to influence Kostunica to halt the "Parisians" and "yellow company". Kostunica isn't against the reformists, he only expressed skepticism as to the amount of donations which the reformists are getting - he kept repeating that it was peanuts in comparison to the damages from the bombardment and pleaded that the leakage of funds in the country be stopped more quickly, for example, at the customs department.  

Those who dramatize these differences are actually working toward an accelerated destruction of the reform coalition. Here is where the fear of approaching capitalism is unconsciously reflected by the children of communism. According to the words of Srecko Mihajlovic, everyone, using various ideological haziness, is hiding exactly that - that the ongoing reforms actually present a transition from socialism to capitalism.

Following the St. Vitus day events, Djindjic made a dash to "raise a church of atonement here and there" following the extradition - he suddenly announced that works would be commenced on completing the St. Sava cathedral in Belgrade and stated that religion would be introduced into the school curriculum, which incited a crisis complete with resignations in his education ministry.

Just like he used to rush Kostunica, Djindjic, who plays by tempo, rushed Djukanovic to resolve the conflict on the way the federation would function by the end of this year. Djukanovic, who until recently kept threatening that he would soon call a referendum, now, offended, retorts that no one from Serbia will tell him when to call a referendum. The messages collided, in the meantime Djindjic announced that he applauds the fact that the Montenegrin referendum is scheduled for the first quarter of next year.

Otherwise, these days he kept giving his usual "depending on the moment" statements - Kostunica, judging by his statements "did know" about the operation of the most famous extradition, "he was silent, and then he said 'yes'", "his minister knew", "he was informed" and finally "he wasn't informed" about the details, but "even I didn't know everything". Those in charge of the extradition "feared the army" and "used decoys" and "no, they weren't afraid of the army"... That can seem likeable to the media and his supporters, but that will definitely ruin the credibility of both the prime minister and the government.

THE TECHNOLOGY OF CONDITIONING: Even when it is reconstructed, more difficult days lie in store for that government which has to confront larger appetites at home and the new conditions from abroad. The International Crisis Group, as the evil genie of the former US administration's policies, concluded these days how the transfer of Milosevic to The Hague confirmed the "efficiency of conditioning economic aid to Yugoslavia with concrete political progress".

According to the diagnosis of the International Crisis Group, it emerges that these same circles expect Djindjic to strike a deal with Djukanovic behind the back of the federal president and the federal government, i.e. as they say, indications exist that the two of them will reach an agreement "over the heads of the federal presidency and government".

Some politicians, like Slobodan Vuksanovic from the Movement for a Democratic Serbia (PDS), have started saying that unfortunately, they don't see enough good will for the survival of the joint state either in our country or in international circles.

The crisis was actually created due to some significant differences between SNP and DOS, and amongst DOS itself.

SEPARATE OPINION: The way Kostunica comprehends the state, the case of Milosevic's extradition presents an example of the destruction of law, but the fact that he decided to "bare his teeth" by bringing the position of the Serbian government into question as well and "separating his opinion" isn't the only cause of the crisis in DOS. The list of contentions is long, including the army, general Pavkovic, health minister Joksimovic...

>From October 5, he was more or less opposed to the creation of the crisis headquarters. One of his associates says that he complained even back then: "They're talking everything..." He also waged a silent war with Vojvodina's autonomists with whom he never had good relations. He waged a silent war against them, i.e. to be more precise, they waged a silent war against him, driving a wedge between him and Djindjic and even (like Canak) threatening to internationalize the Vojvodina issue. In Sava Center on October 7 of last year, Canak congratulates Kostunica and tells him to watch out, he replies with: "We should all watch out, we're in the same pot." Canak retorts: "No, you're in the pot, we're your lid!" In DOS's election platform a promise was made to regionalize Serbia, Kostunica obviously belongs to a group of lawyers who are in favor of a regional concept, but that approach greatly differs from the package of Vojvodina's autonomists, which was opened up before the others were prepared for it. The separation of the DSS deputy group was more dramatic in the parliament of Vojvodina than in the republican one or in certain municipalities.  

When it was hinted that DSS would request a reconstruction of the republic government, word was out that this party was interested in six ministries, but they denied that, stressing that the way in which the government functions was more important than positions. Even prior to the December elections, Kostunica showed skepticism and, as the bearer of the DOS ballot, he asked that the mandatory be determined after the elections. Djindjic then insisted that a skeleton cabinet be formed prior to the elections, so that reforms could be prepared in due time.

Djindjic, who had already announced a reconstruction of that concentrated Serbian government in order to meet the demands of the ecologists and national minorities, threatened that he wouldn't allow the ministries of police and justice to be brought into question, which are symbolically connected to Slobodan Milosevic's extradition to The Hague. Batic, whose portfolio was "attacked", started saying that a winning team can't be changed. Kostunica had objections to the work of exactly those two ministries which Djindjic "refuses to give", adding that a problem also exists with the ministries of labor and traffic.

Kostunica hit on a sore spot - Serbia doesn't have a constitutional court, a judiciary reform is upcoming, and objections are already arriving from the courts that pressure is being applied by the media but also by the government.

As far as the police is concerned, things are more complex there. The public expects the police to be more efficient, humanitarian workers demand that the police be more humane, "The Hague party" demands that following the excavation of mass graves, the police be subjected to lustration. That portfolio was otherwise controversial at the time when the mandates were allocated. A day after Djindjic's strong defense, the Serbian police minister Dusan Mihajlovic told the reporters that as far as his position is concerned, there won't be any problems, and reminded everyone that he found himself there when president Kostunica appointed him, as an obviously compromise solution. He also added that in the announced reconstruction of the republic government, the requests of the Democratic Party of Serbia will be met since, following the October events and the December elections, it has strengthened greatly and now finds that it doesn't have enough room in DOS, i.e. because it believes it doesn't have enough influence and control in the executive government. Just like someone who knows that raspberries are perishable goods which have to be handled quickly and carefully, he sent encouragement to the other side the very next day - he believes that it is unthinkable that Labus, the key person of reforms, can be replaced.

In that context, the separation of the DSS delegates into a separate deputy group in the republic parliament wasn't as dramatic as it was presented at first.

The huge party group which has 176 members and whose work was organized by 12 coordinators was rendered passive, what due to the strivings of the government to pass laws as quickly as possible, what due to the fact that the radicals forced the chronometer with their endless obstructions, what due to intentions not to rock the boat in DOS.

IDENTIFICATION: It is interesting to note that the ideological differences in DOS were first "verified" in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, and only afterwards in the parliament of Serbia. The Democratic Center, the Democratic Party, the Socialist People's party and the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) opted for the group of center-left socialists. (SPS might move more towards the left.) Here we find Tony Blair's British Labour Party, Gerhard Schroeder's Social-Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the Socialist Party of Austria (SPÖ), Lionel Jospin's French socialists (who recently admitted that he was once a - Trotskyist), the Spanish and Hungarian socialists, the Norwegian Labor Party, Swedish, Czech and Romanian Social-Democrats, Yabloko from Russia, Bulgaria's Evrolevica...

The Democratic Party of Serbia opted for the group of national parties (center-right), along with Helmut Kohl's German Demochristians (CDU), Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia, New Democracy from Greece, the Turkish True Path Party, Slovenian Demochristians, the National Party of Spain...

New Democracy is keeping company with liberal, democratic and reform parties, where the British Liberal Democrats are, represented by Lord Russell Johnson, the Party of Free Democrats (FDP) of Germany, the Radical Democratic Party of Switzerland and Italy's Restoration.

Amongst the "left" parties, where SPS might move, are the communists from Ukraine, National Strength from Russia and the Communist Party of France.

It is interesting that our parties didn't opt to join the group of democrats, although the majority have the democratic prefix in their names. That's where Willian Hague's British Tory Party (the Conservative Party) is situated, Jacques Chirac's De Gaulle Republic Party (RPR) of France, the National Alliance of Italy...

That's how the "federalization" of DOS began, which contains many colors and paradoxes (the liberal "laissez faire" reformists are under the DS "Social-Democratic" wing, while DSS from the center-right insists on a socially responsible state).  

After DSS, Velja Ilic from New Serbia also announced a quick formation of a deputy group, repeating that Ceda Jovanovic cannot represent him, but until Tuesday he still didn't officially inform his deputy group of it. He has eight deputies, and the parliamentary lobby evaluates that New Serbia is currently on the brink of a 6:2 or 5:3 result in favor of independence. If, along with DSS's 46 deputies at least six deputies from New Serbia join in, the parliamentary majority is no longer in control of the rest of DOS. Along with that, PDS is also considering separating its deputy group, and judging by thus far behavior, we can also expect the Vojvodina's autonomists to secede, i.e. the group which makes up the Alliance of Democratic Parties.  

Thus far, none of them are threatening to take part in toppling the government, but are mainly hinting that they wish to see improvements in its operation and increased control. That means that the government will find it more difficult to control the majority in parliament, that majority will primarily be governed by party interests, the government will find it more difficult to coordinate future laws and will start massively producing decrees, which it has already been criticized of. That will reduce its popularity, which isn't rated all that high, and intensify parliamentary pressure. Still, that doesn't have to mean that "only a cigarette butt remains of DOS" and that this government will be unstable.  

TEST FROM CACAK: The federalization of DOS is a result of the increase of internal dissatisfaction and worn out reservoir of patience, maybe even conflicts of the reformists with everyday life. Velja Ilic appeared in the Media Center in Belgrade last Thursday to remind us that the DOS leaders had promised they wouldn't be in the government which would consist of experts, and once power was won, everyone violated that rule except for him. All leaders are full of promises, all are for unity, but things aren't really like that. He also claims that power has become too centralized and that things can't continue this way; that it can't be tolerated when certain parties in Serbia are creating parallel networks of power where the "other option" (also DOS) is in power, by opening up regional offices "with signs 'the money's here' written all over them". In Cacak, across from the municipality in which whole economic departments exist, lies the "regional office" where a psychologist sits. Ilic warns that certain parties are directing funds, governed by their narrow interests, and that we'll have "party companies" once again.  

Ilic's criticism is the criticism of someone who's dissatisfied with DOS, but it's also criticism of a practical person - he warns that the key issue is what we ourselves will do, rather than what they will give us; that investments are blocked because everyone was waiting for the donor conference, which brought only 270 DM per capita of Serbia. He complains that initiatives are mostly refused with empty phrases such as: "Let that be, it has to be like this, the people from the European Union said that..." He says there are comical regulations, like the one where the mushroom pickers had to open up accounts, and the regulator overlooked the fact that 60 percent of the pickers don't even have personal identity cards.

Whatever the case, one should expect more than a symbolic reconstruction of the republic cabinet, but not destabilization of the reform nucleus.

Because a clear line can't be drawn, for example, between G17 Plus and the Democratic Party, in the parliamentary hallways and wider public the notion is spreading that Kostunica doesn't have "the personnel". Once the reformist team of economists is excluded (Djelic, Labus, Pitic, possibly Radovic and Vlahovic), it is apparent that neither the democrats nor other DOS members stuck to their word of respecting the expert imperative, and that they've squandered months positioning themselves in accordance with party criteria and party combat status rating. With all respect to the charm, image, marketing and party functions, it is difficult to prove, for example, that telecommunications can't do without a psychologist, or that the federal economic ministry can't do without a journalist. Criticism has appeared from various places that in DOS's crisis headquarters more party looting was evident than in the "people's uprising" of 1988, that in certain places competent people were ousted and suitable brought in, while in other places incompetent were kept on because they "changed colors" and disguised themselves. Those who are left without a "class" claim that nothing has changed, that "old people" are everywhere. In public opinion polls, DOS's personnel policies are rated very low.  

The potential, influence and esteem of the expert-reformists at ministerial and other high functions is still high (which is evident from Labus's letter and from Velja's anecdote "Be quiet, that's what those from the Union are asking for..."). Taking into account their standing abroad and ovations at the donor conference, they shouldn't be threatened. Tensions can be expected from those ministerial positions which belong to classic state functions, like places where they are the "correctors of the game", especially in the sphere where large social problems or tensions are expected.  

DOS still has a lot of space to, with a bit of internal squabbling, improve the picture and to enable the continuation and maintenance of reforms in autumn. The opposition cannot threaten them, the radicals can't do anything other than to obstruct in parliament and the persecuted socialists don't have any other options for now then to invent charges - they announced that because of Milosevic's extradition they would file criminal charges against the largest number of ministers of the Serbian and more than half from the federal parliament. Cynics say that early elections should be postponed due to judicial reasons - so that cases won't be mixed up and, like in 1948, so that partisans with a reaction don't find themselves in jail.

Branko Milanovic, a World Bank associate, believes that the most important thing is to stop the confusion on the political plan as soon as possible on whether and when new elections will be held, what will happen to the federal government, and whether a reconstruction of the republic government is upcoming. He noted these days that the politicians haven't learned the lesson that Milosevic fell from power because people lived miserably here, combined with constant political tensions. He believes people now need political peace and not a "zigzag" transitional flow which Bulgaria has, where governments are toppled every second, or Moldavia, where the communists have come to power again. Yugoslavia isn't Italy to allow itself to have frequent changes of governments. Who said Italy!?