The Serbian-German Rift

Suffice it to say that in the first half of this year 29,7% of our entire exports went to Germany. Germany is ahead of everyone else, concerning the imports as well, which is estimated at 25,3%. Until now there was no reason to believe that Germany was favouring certain trade partners owing to historical reasons. For example, although Germany is contributing 29% to Croatian exports and 25,5% to the Serbian, this difference only suggests that there are better transport facilities in the Western Yugoslav republic and that it is economically more advanced. On the exports side, Serbia, with 21,5% of its total imports (especially if we eliminate oil), has very close links with its German suppliers. It seems that the expected breakdown of the foreign trade has started in August. According to the available data, the imports this month as compared to July have decreased by 36,2%, whereas the imports have fallen by 19%. It is especially worrying that the total exports during the eight months of this year were 11,3 billion dollars, and the total imports were 11,9 billion dollars. More than 50% of the buying and selling is concentrated in five countries, headed by Germany. Yugoslav exports to Germany in this period amount to 3,4 billion dollars, whereas the imports amount to 3 billion dollars. The fact that the exports have exceeded imports should not be taken too seriously, since it may mean that the Germans are placing less orders in Yugoslavia (especially hire purchase), which could significantly reduce the export as well, even without the rumoured economic blockade. Namely, the considerable trade exchange is being carried out through the finishing works, especially with Serbia. The textile industry could fare badly in its rift with Germany. The 3079 textile factories in Serbia employ 174 000 people, and around 80% of export deals are sealed with the German suppliers. These workers were processing the German materials by the means of "loan deals", and its value is estimated to around one billion marks. It seems that these threats are not just empty words. According to the Rumanian sources (which should not always be adhered to), the Germans are reproaching them for the oil transfer and its derivatives for the needs of Serbia and the Army.

There are much more serious implications here than the simple breakdown of the trade relations. The road to Europe from Serbia, after the civil war, dictated by geography leads through Hungary, Austria, Check and Slovakia. If these countries continue to implement "thorough" customs procedures and the return of freight cars from Yugoslavia through Croatia etc, Serbia will be pushed "further South".