An Old Man's Dream

If the new Prime Minister Milan Panic had been better informed of the fate of his predecessor, he might have tried somewhat to play down the startling similiarities in political orientations, and so have avoided inheriting all his predecessor's enemies. In this way, Panic is announcing in a shorter form and more directly Markovic's economic-political project; he wants to open up the country to the world; and he is not interested in history and borders but in free trade; and is even mentioning the possibility of renewing fundamenatal links with the newly-formed countries, even the idea of a United States of the Balkans. Panic radiates geniality and optimism, and his self-confidence borders on boastfulness. Compared to Markovic, he is more courageous and decisive and more prepared to enter into conflicts, perhaps because he is not so concerned over the fate of his function and political career, and because his Yugoslavia does not have much left to risk or lose.

But, Panic has not been called because someone in Belgrade has learned something or realized that mistakes have been made, even though two years ago all that which was considered as pertaining to Serbian national interests was obviously better protected and looked after than today. It seems that Panic was told that he must come and help and that he would have a free hand, but nobody told that he must stay clear of Milosevic's war efforts aimed at putting together a Greater Serbia. This is where the first misunderstandings cropped up, especially when it became obvious that the matter did not pertain to war only, but to war crimes, ethnic cleansing, pogroms, in short, to genocide.

Coming from the United States, Panic could certainly not have been aware of who was who here and of the pervading customs. But, he understood better than anyone else what it meant when a regime brings infamy to a country and its people, and where this had led. Panic knew that the only way out lay in making important and fast moves, political sacrifices and concessions and not in bargaining and transparent manouevres. The fact that the world powers might not come here to enforce law and order, for reasons of their own, cannot be considered a success and something on which to base the country's future and well-being.

If President Dobrica Cosic did not believe that Panic, at any rate, could not carry things out to the end, and knowing that something must be changed, he would not have stood up in his defence. However, it is obvious that the decision to sacrifice Milosevic has been made and that in a final show of resistance, Milosevic is insisting that parliament take a vote of confidence in the government.

It is a happy coincidence that President of the Association of Emigrants Brana Crncevic and President of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) Vojislav Seselj have voiced an identical demand in the name of a group of Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) and SRS deputies. As far as they are concerned the matter is one of life and death. Deputy Minister of the Interior and MP, Mihalj Kertes has already left, and they are next. According to many stories, this trio is responsible for most of the transactions linked to the war, armies, paramilitary formations, arms, money amd mass re-locations of the population. I cannot claim for a fact, but it seems that none of them have forgotten their personal interests and they are certainly not overly concerned or given to self-sacrifice. But that part of the story is mere triviality.

Panic has naturally been accused of disregarding Serbian interests. The Poet in Brana Crncevic still believes this to be interesting and fresh. However, the Satirist has become so morally and mentally obtuse that he no longer notices the exhaustion of a people led along a path, that he, Brana Crncevic, does not wish to depart from. Even though many have become inured to the situation, Crncevic's case is rather characteristic of a mass occurence.

Brana Crncevic was poet and satirist before he became an official, a deputy and an operator. Had these two men met earlier, the first would have made fun of the second. Were they to meet today, the second would attack the first, or at least hold him in contempt. The young Crncevic was a bohemian and gambler and lived the life of a free man at a time of Party exclusiveness and ideological backwardness. A time of liberation and a lifting of all taboos followed, only to have Crncevic choose ideological backwardness and a government job. His verbosity is now in the service of a policy and world full of misconceptions, hate and obtuseness.

This Kafakaesque change, can be explained in various ways, but we will consider the most favourable -- the dream of a Greater Serbia, a literary fiction upheld and urged by old men rather than by the youth. The achievement of this dream is similar to the search for treasure on the island of Monte Cristo, but much bloodier. Those who are young today can make a momentary mistake, but in principle, are not susceptible to that kind of romantic adventure. They do not fall for such dubious patriotism and react much better to Milan Panic than to Brana Crncevic, in spite of the difference in eloquence.

People like Crncevic are turned off by Panic's vitality, cheerfulness and elan with which he is trying to find solutions, and the fact that he has not given up and is not prepared to let circumstances get him down, or meet with failure.

It remains to be seen if the fear of further disasters has grown sufficiently to prevent a Parliament dominated by Crncevic and Seselj from toppling Panic. It took three days from the moment the demand was made for a confidence vote and until Parliament voted, for Prime Minster Panic to recieve support from Montenegro, the entire Serbian opposition, and the world. Panic had the opportunity to defend himself on Belgrade Television's Channel One, which in itself, was a sign that his chances were good. On TV, Panic was convincing and effective.

The Socialists have started pulling out and washing their hands, in order to say, in the end, that criticism does not mean a lack of confidence. Both Crncevic and Seselj remained adamant. They would probably win a majority in Parliament if the deputies were to vote according to their mental capacities. The reader will know that, which the writer still does not, but the general belief is, that Panic must pass, and that Cosic will play a key role in the matter. Cosic's suprise regarding the demand for a vote of confidence, and a speech in Parliament would probably not be enough. The deputies must have been deeply impressed by the news that Cosic had visited the top military brass on Thursday, a day before the session, and talked to the generals. They must have recalled that Prime Minister Panic had played tennis with General Panic.

At the same time, another testing of strengths was taking place at the round table and concerned the law on elections. Somehow, at this very time, the hardline Socialists started giving in and accepted the idea of a proportional system, which had been proposed by a federal government committee. Cosic's message, to the effect that it would be a good thing if things were speeded up, had some influence here. The SPS knows that a handing over of authority is in the air.

Unless Milosevic has a surprise up his sleeve, these could be his final days. Without his support, nationalist madness will be brought down to a tolerable level, and Seselj and Crncevic will follow in the wake. We will not have the opportunity of hearing as often as before, how the Serbs cannot live with anyone in peace, that the world is one and we are something else, that someone must capitulate, and that sanctions have been enforced on us only because we are weaker, otherwise we would punish them, and that it is better for us to disappear altogether than become civilized and reasonable.