Waiting for the Winter

Because of this the last hope of Serbian expansionists fades away of pushing into Milosevic's Yugoslavia "all those who want it", thereby hiding their program of a Greater Serbia. Milosevic should resign because of this catastrophic defeat. But, he is not only an irresponsible politician - which is why he won't go - but a power hungry man, prepared to sacrifice even his own "Yugoslavia, exposing it to even greater economic and political destruction, in order to stay at the top. If his policy had been one of opening Serbia up towards Europe and transforming its socialist order into a democratic society, he would have been rewarded by the continuity of the SFRY in the rump "Yugoslavia, because Croatian and other nationalisms in the Balkans would have had to be suppressed for the sake of one stable country in the south of Europe, as representative of the policy of European integration.

Now the Socialists are not sure whether to allow the elections in Serbia. Because of the international strategic failure of "Yugoslavia", they should have to immediately announce emergency elections. But, having taken on the characteristics of Milosevic, maybe they won't. What positive result do they have to take to the elections? However, if they don't announce republican elections, Serbia is in for the most dangerous period since the Second World War: the final battle between the surviving Socialists and fascists with the opposition, national minorities, "federal" authority of Cosic and Panic, and, maybe, with the army. Why do the people have to put up with a government which considers necrophilia and devastation of the standard of living to be dignity?

With the excuse that without a referendum, early elections in Serbia can't be announced, the Socialists, for the time being, are putting them off with the desire to enter winter. If they survive it, in spite of the misery of the population and starvation of the poor, they can hope to rule for a long time, with no thought for any kind of early elections. The Socialists are aware of the fact that they would probably lose, but that they would get more votes now than in the spring. But this isn't all they take into account. What interests them is whether they can rule by avoiding elections in Serbia at the price of enormous tension between the republican and "federal" authorities. This is why, as a sort of trial, they are allowing the "federal" elections but are waiting to see what autumn brings.

The opposition, of course, will not take part in Cosic's "federal" elections if Milosevic doesn't resign and if presidential, republican, provincial and local elections are not announced. It wants a duel for power everywhere. If the Socialists had tactics, they would oblige the opposition and proclaim the whole territory of Serbia as one electoral unit and replace all the editors of informative propaganda on Belgrade TV. Because as soon as the opposition gets what it wants it is overcome by a wave of individualism so that the main parties soon want to take part in the elections independently instead of as a coalition. The Socialists' resistance to the opposition unites it since the growth in the number of electoral units increases the number of votes required to put the MP candidates of every party into the Parliament. Therefore, the Socialists' rigidity strengthens the opposition.

For the Socialists, Panic returns from New York as a hated winner. He can tell Jovic and Milosevic that even he was unable to win the big powers over to accept the Serbian conception of Yugoslav continuity, but that nonetheless he has ensured acceptance of their new "Yugoslavia" by the United Nations in a few months' time. If these two had gone to New York instead of Panic, they wouldn't have got anything - they would have been presented with a list of Yugoslav Army officers fighting under Karadzic's sign in Bosnia, whilst receiving salaries and resting in Belgrade.

The Socialists don't know what to do: to blacken and bring down Panic, even with the help of Crncevic, they can't, because the creation of chaos endangers their power; to make a frontal attack at all the elections - the signs are that they would lose; to ask the people to get used to poverty and exclusion from the world - would be an open admission of the failure of their internal and external politics; to keep quiet - would maybe be best, but they can't do this because they rule by propaganda and not success. It's an ugly situation. Maybe they'll get the idea of starting a war in Kosovo in order to generally weaken internal resistance in Belgrade - but, this would open a merciless front in Terazije. Whatever they decide, they will wait for the winter.