A Hot Political Point

t is difficult to measure the dimension of the present shortage of petrol derivatives and gas because those in charge, of course, do not provide the public with precise data. If for the moment we put aside the various forms of smuggling organized by private importers (and which the Serbian government "legalized" only two weeks ago), it can be estimated that the refineries in Pancevo and Novi Sad process a little over 3,000 tons of local petrol reserves daily. From these quantities some 450-500 tons are "provided", but people from "Jugopetrol" say they get only around 150 tons, and some other petrol companies even three times less. It is probable that out of the total amount processed daily, 1,000 tons of diesel and around 1,500 tons of mazut are obtained. This is far from being enough for either agricultural machines or the heating plants and portion of industry which has to work in order to feed us.

According to incomplete data, which do not include Croatian and Slovenian imports in the last quarter of last year, the former Yugoslavia imported in 1991 7,946,000 tons of crude petrol, 618,000 tons of heating oil (diesel) and 1,831,000 tons of natural gas. Around 40% of this import was used by the present FR Yugoslavia.

For instance, "Jugopetrol" in 1991 imported 2,423 million tons and NAP 823,000 tons of crude petrol. When the local production of 1.2 million tons is added to this amount, it turns out that last year consumers in Serbia, Montenegro and the Knin Krajina were more or less normally supplied with around 4.5 million tons of refined petrol and, with the aid of import, around 250,000 tons of heating oil (some was still coming from "INA" - refinery plant in Croatia). This year the already decreased consumption is in an even worse situation (in the good years more than 6 million tons were used). If we accept as a reliable fact that the Vojvodina refineries in the first eight months of this year decreased production of derivatives by 27.2% in relation to the same period last year, it turns out that up to now a little over 2 million tons of the theoretically needed 4.5 million tons of crude petrol has been imported. This calculation is probably incorrect, because if one estimates the transport and financial capabilities of importers and the effects of the blockade in the last four months, at a stretch a little over one million tons of crude petrol and a total of 300,000-400,000 tons of derivatives have been imported. With the halved industrial production and primitivism of agriculture (drought instead of crude oil curing and smoking), these amounts have been enough up to now for "survival". Winter will show just how energy deprived the FR Yugoslavia is.

Nonetheless, the news that Panic managed to "beg" for petrol and its derivatives in America is not good news for everybody in this country. First of all, it places a big burden on the people from the Serbian Petrol Industry who will have to organize the transport of the approved amount. If we suppose that 850,000 tons of petrol is approved, this means that in the next six months a convoy of 5-6 barges would have to arrive by the Danube every day, which is a tempo on the borderline of the theoretical maximum of every factory. Owing to this, the question of the opening of the "Yu-gas pipeline" has been introduced in the political "trading" with Croatia. And because of this Minister Sainovic has already emphasized that it would be good for a considerable amount of gas to be incorporated into the approved quote (one cubic meter of gas is almost equal to the caloric value of one liter of crude oil). Belgrade and Novi Sad heating plants are to a great extent dependent on gas which could be easily transported through the existing pipeline.

There is also the important question of paying for the approved import of petrol, derivatives and gas. In the report from the Federal Government session on September 24, most prominent was the announcement that the Government, on considering the Draft for Monetary Policy to the end of the year, "advised the National Bank to examine its policy regarding the use of permanent hard currency reserves, in order to provide the means of payment for the import of indispensable requirements of the society". That implies the urgent need for the Central Bank to let the public know for once the state of national hard currency reserves. Although we still don't know what is understood by the term "permanent" hard currency reserves, metaphorically speaking one could assume that the regime has spent all the money and come down to the gold. Normally "permanent" reserves encompass the level which ensures the payment of two months' import. This was once around one billion dollars, and now the "permanently available" portion of hard currency reserves is much less. So, if they allow us petrol, we will ask them to unblock frozen accounts because we have come to the bottom of the cash box.