Serbia Tired of Referendums

President of the Serbian Parliament Aleksandar Bakocevic has put a lot of effort to secure the adoption of the Amendment to the Serbian Constitution envisaging pre-time election by the end of 1992. He even, in his white suit, got up from the chairman table and mounted the rostrum. On Monday at 6 p.m, after the voting had been already postponed twice, there were enough MPs (185) in the conference room to take a two-thirds majority decision (167 MPs make a quorum); however, once again, without any explanation, by a bare will of the majority, the decision was taken to discontinue the session. On Tuesday, they somehow gathered 202 MPs and Bakocevic announced that there were 169 "pro" votes. Mirko Petrovic, the Democratic Party of Serbia MP, requested voting result to be checked by MPs' individual voting. Zoran Horvan, the SPO (Serbian Renewal Movement) MP, after the next voting concerning a different issue, asked: "Where have 30 MPs disappeared?!" Dragoslav Petrovic, a new member of the SDP (Social-Democratic Party of Serbia), a former deputy of the Peoples' Party, later on without hesitation asserted that by his own eyes he saw that "Bakocevic had stolen 30 votes".

The majority of the people we have talked to in the Serbian Parliament is completely unaware of the fact that the whole confusion would have been avoided if 126 MPs had returned their mandates. A ruling party MP, asked by "Vreme" reporter whether the impression was correct that the dismissal of the Parliament and resignations were not taken because most MPs think they would confess to be half guilty, he spontaneously answered:" How do you mean half? We would immediately be four fifths guilty!"

The man knows what he is talking about. There is no milk in the stores, no petrol at gas stations. There are lots of indicators of the society disintegrating under the pressure of sanctions, black market is flourishing, in front of schools ruffians grab snickers from children. Seven hundred and fifty thousand unemployed, three hundred thousand people on a (compulsory) paid leave, seven hundred and fifty thousand people yet to be fired...

The war is lost. False promises were given.

Milan Panic, before his trip to the USA, said it was not his government that lead the country to catastrophe but it was done by "them". After returning, he threatened to send them to Disneyland to dream and lie there as much as they like... "They" have therefore shot an arrow which is on its way towards the target.

Several parties have announced they would offer Panic, who stated "the conflict had started", a leading position on their slate. There are signs indicating that he is probably the center of a prospective gathering of democratically oriented opposition parties. Firstly Zoran Djindjic, the Democratic Party Executive Board Chairman, said this at some local party meeting, which probably was a reckless wasting of an important trump card. DEPOS wants to support the Federal Prime Minister. Dragoljub Micunovic, the Democratic Party president, has announced the creation of election coalition; however, he had not given any further details before he went to Montenegro to establish cooperation with local parties. Before its convention, DEPOS again shows ambition to unite the whole opposition, including the Social-Democrats, who arose from a SPS fraction.

It is not impossible that some new, more broadly grounded coalitions will be established. Vojislav Kostunica, president of the Democratic Party of Serbia, in an interview to VREME says that ideas about new unity of opposition are not without grounds. Vesna Pesic, president of the Reformist Party, told "Borba" daily there was a need for establishing a united opposition democratic front; she said Panic himself could contribute to such a union. Even for the Serbian opposition, Panic, whose rating grows fast, is quite a new phenomenon.

DEPOS has confirmed its coalition negotiations with the Civic Alliance. Academic Predrag Palavestra said DEPOS would try to find a common ground for the opposition to unite. Perhaps the minimum of common goals could be a defense of the Federal Prime Minister.

However, there are no serious indicators that in Serbia a unique opposition slate could be put up, although some forms of clustering would probably take place. This is proved by the latest exchange of "compliments" between the Democratic Party and the SPO. Zoran Djindjic in his interview to "Borba" preferred torn up opposition to opposition lead by Vuk Draskovic. If opposition without Draskovic would be established, then the agreement among opposition parties could be discussed, he said. Djindjic announced the establishment of "DEPOS-center", "without monarchy and over-insisting on orthodox religion". On the same day, the SPO answered back with the following statement: "The assault of Zoran Djindjic, Executive Board Chairman of the new branch office of the SPS, on the president of the Serbian Renewal Movement Mr. Vuk Draskovic, bearing shameful mockery of Serbian symbols, national history and orthodox religion, overcomes everything that has been recorded so far in inter-party disputes". Draskovic also said Dragoljub Micunovic should not be begged for cooperation.

The reason for the conflict intensification could be probably found in the fact that the Democrats are now openly allied with Cosic; Vuk has severely criticized Cosic up to now, taking a neutral position at the moment. On the other hand, in his latest book "Changes" Cosic speaks very negatively about the Serbian Renewal Movement.

A great deal of Serbian parties probably cannot overstep the minimal quota of 5% votes. One can guess that in a present situation 5 electoral coalitions would appear at the election in Serbia: DEPOS, Democratic Party with its allies, Civic Alliance, Socialists and Radicals. Democratic Union of Vojvodina Hungarians will try to adapt, as far as possible, to the behavior of the opposition and, most probably, will back Panic. It is almost sure that the ethnic Albanian parties would keep their role of the so-called disloyal opposition, and go on denying the political community. The Party of Democratic Action (SDA) from Sandzak is threatening to do the same. Due to a complex social and national composition, there will probably be from five to seven political parties in the Parliament (on average, 14% votes per party), according to sociologist Vladimir Goati.

Tibor Varadi, Federal Justice Minister, explains the new electoral law by the fact that in all post communist countries, where political parties were in a process of establishment, proportional electoral system was adopted. At the 1990 election, the SPO gained 15,7% of electorate, the Democratic Party 7,4%. This sum makes a figure not very far away from today's minimal score as the next party on the rating list, the DZVM, got then 2,63% votes; now it will be able to benefit from paragraphs on positive discrimination. The first three parties gained 72% votes, while the remaining 30% were split among 41 parties and about 50 independent candidates.

At the Round Table the opposition was on its way to obtain a quite correct electoral law, but its adoption was postponed as 50 amendments were submitted. On Friday in the Federal Parliament, the SPS representative who took part at the Round Table did not accept the Government proposal for 4 constituencies in Serbia, each as big as Montenegro. The Serbian authorities swear they are not obstructing the election, but they try to complicate the things to their benefit.

An indication has been given about concessions concerning television, but Milorad Vucelic, TV Serbia Director, has opposed with mockery the Federal Prime Minister's idea about dividing the channels between the Federal Government and Serbia. Milorad Perisic, Federal Information Minister, on the same day said the Federal Government could not simply remain in media isolation.

Socialists, who were firstly prolonging negotiations with the opposition, practically to abandon them now, will enter the election with an important advantage of holding the state apparatus in their hands. They most of all count on the emission bank, on TV support and on the police tolerating armed formations. It is interesting that in the latest negotiations the Serbian opposition has not raised the issue of political neutrality of the police, although March 1991 and March 1992 experience gave it enough reason for that. Furthermore, political demands from the beginning of 1992 were oriented towards the prevention of the civil war in Serbia and disarmament of paramilitary forces. In this field the Serbian Government has not made outstanding progress, probably because it itself was deeply involved in their formation.

A group of opposition MPs in the Serbian Parliament considers that the Socialists will try to throw down Panic or, helped by the Radicals, to exhaust him before federal election. According to them, the SPS will try by manipulations to postpone the election in Serbia as long as possible or to fasten it up.

On his tour around Serbia last week, Bozovic launched a series of attacks on Panic's government using the dusty reminder from the times of Ante Markovic and announcing that, if necessary, he would break the law to print the money promised for the authorized purchase of agricultural products. State trade unions, as earlier on, announce social pressure on the Federal Government. On Monday Djindjic said in the Parliament that Bozovic reproached Panic most of all because the latter had not printed new money. "Probably for the Prime Minister Bozovic the election is not possible if the money is not printed, if those 2,5 billion dinars promised to trade unions few days ago are not to be found in cashiers, allowing the workers to say: 'Well, we received three salaries, it means our government is terrific!'".

The SPO Presidency on Monday rashly invited the Serbian citizens to boycott "the octroyed, expensive and unnecessary referendum on pre-time election".

The Social-Democratic Party of Serbia has announced, in a more restrained voice, it would not boycott the referendum, but it would not cheer it either. The Democratic Party, however, invited its members to turn over at their election posts, the referendum already being put up, and to fight for the election.

In fact, there is a confusion among opposition simphathizers swinging between a revolt and referendum voting. The Socialists have probably gained a pre-election point: by forcing the constitutional change they made the opposition look confused. The opposition has not had the courage to hold the regime for its word and to interpret the October 11 referendum as Milosevic's factual resignation.

The chances to gain enough "pro" votes are realistically small since it is almost sure that 17% of electorate made up by ethnic Albanians would abstain, coupled by Sandzak Muslims, and that the usual 20% rate of abstinents will be much higher because of the crisis. This could mean the voters' turnout of only 55%; for the Constitution to be changed, as much as 93% voters have to be in favor of the decision. The number of those whose position is threatened by the change of authorities is considerable.

The election will be surveyed by the same old company from 1990; electoral records have not been updated, ballots are being published without any control. It seems the Serbian Government has rather cynically decided to count the ethnic Albanian non-votes and normal abstinence in its favor.

On the other hand, Milosevic's authority resorted to referendum whenever it wanted to put through some of its combinations: in 1990, a referendum "first the Constitution, then the election" was used so that parliamentary election could be postponed and arrangements made for the election victory; in May 1992, in order to attract people to federal election, voting about the hymn and the flag was planted. When pressed by requests for his resignation, Slobodan Milosevic in July 1992 said that this issue would be "put on a referendum": not resignation but a simple "check" of the mandate. Instead of easily promised Swedish standard he is now offering Swiss voting.

Serbia is tired of referendums.

The SPO in its statement predicts that after the referendum failure democratic forces would find the way to force the Republic President and Parliament President to call for extraordinary election on grounds of the valid Constitution. On Monday evening at some local Belgrade discussion Vuk Draskovic said that the SPO would not call for demonstrations since this is to be "decided by the people". He added that all the causes for calm protests were used out and if people came out on streets there would be Bucharest. This raising of the tone can sound as a pressure, but more probably it would be used against Draskovic as an accusation for provoking disorder and will threaten his efforts to promote his party as a moderate civil party (he has recently given interesting instructions to the party officials requiring from them to wear ties, not to raise voice and not to use words "violence", "war" and "destruction").

Vojislav Kostunica fears that as far as the next election is concerned, the prospects are gloomy. The Federal Government has urged the discussion on extraordinary election, but, according to him, it has given the priority to the election process, neglecting the conditions under which it should be held. It began pushing the discussions before the preconditions were cleared out. It has offered a quite fair electoral law, but many issues on the eve of the election remained unsettled.

The Socialists have proved to be very crafty in prolonging the negotiations and then to fasten up the decision so it appears as if they gave in, but this late "present" usually does not mean anything.

The fact that the Socialists have scheduled their congress for the end of October provokes suspicion. This has lead some opposition politicians to the idea that they want to postpone the election or to shorten the campaign maximally. Vladeta Jankovic, the DEPOS speaker, stated that DEPOS would by no means enter the election if correct conditions were not secured for all the participants.

Some MPs estimate that holding the election now would harm both the authorities and the opposition; the Socialists hope that Panic will remove the sanctions and then they will accuse him and kick him out, blocking him successfully by the Republic Chamber, where they control the Serbian half and even a part of Montenegro seats. A part of the opposition holds that the winter and starvation would turn the people away from the authorities and will open their eyes. In such circumstances federal elections would be pretty ineffective. The postponing of elections for spring would carry the uncertainty of street conflicts or the prolonging of the agony.