Elect and Be Elected

Referendum is a magic formula. It is scheduled whenever it is necessary... for the ruling group to dupe the world. A referendum is not needed for trifles such as the country's disintegration, engaging in or disengaging from a war, forming a new state by uniting with Montenegro (which did organize a referendum on the issue), making Greece a confederal proposal, and so on. It is needed before the elections. Cleverly worded. "Are you for (a united) Serbia?" or "Are you for (early) elections?". As if the country has not reached rock bottom and as if this will solve anything.

The unprepared opposition is demanding elections immediately. And the impossible: "for the President of Serbia to use his authority to dismiss Parliament and then to resign". This would give way to a constitutional crisis. The authorities, naturally, do not accept this, citing (good will again) the right to a referendum. An amendment which requires an absolute majority. The atmosphere on the eve of the referendum is amazing - silence. The opposition is quiet. Every option when calculated gives a good result - if the referendum succeeds the elections are won, if the matter is postponed until colder weather sets in, there will be no oil and the ruling Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) falls. If, on the other hand, the referendum fails, it will indicate the regime's unlawfulness and there is the chance to overthrow it. The regime is not concerned either, because any outcome will suit it. If the referendum fails, that is the will of the people and their legitimacy has been proven. If the referendum succeeds, the elections are postponed, time is bought for fresh moves. The winter could become useful: the opposition will play on the power unbalance and the frozen population, and the regime could take out of its hat stocked oil reserves and offer quite a comfortable solution to the heating problem.

Games with the referendum could be played in many different ways, but the facts remain. Firstly, the electorate is fluctuating. Of the nearly 7.5 million citizens of Serbia who are of age (1991 census), an unknown number has emigrated, fleeing from the war, the neighbors or poverty. An unknown number has immigrated for the same reasons. The refugees both are and are not citizens of Serbia. Only those who want to and have an identity card will vote. Their status will allow for a 3 to 4 percent variation in the result when adding up the estimated number of refugees or the number of those who went to the polling places. This is too little compared to the certain boycott of the ethnic Albanians and Muslims. Almost 20 percent of the electorate does not vote at a referendum because it does not recognize the state which organizes it. The assessment obtained, in the last month, from various opinion polls is stable - at least 12 percent of the electorate has a clear stand that it will not take part in political life, no matter what. The lack of gasoline on the one side, and the enormous pension receiving and agricultural population on the other, considerably decrease the mobility of potential voters. If they are in villages, they will not all manage to turn out even though they may want to. There is a number of such "half-percentage" abstention groups: those absent, with small children, sick, drunk... and they amount to 5 percent. And finally there are some 20 percent without a stand. The number of people without a stand will be higher because both the regime and the opposition are keeping quiet, so it is to be expected that at least half will not vote. All in all, at least 40 percent of the electorate is resolute in advance that it will not vote at the referendum. The remaining 55-60 percent would have to be highly conscientious not to allow for the standard couple of percent of invalid ballots. Everything would go down the drain because the result would not have reached the magical 51 percent. The gold reserves in several percent of refugee votes could tip the scales. There is another option: announce the result in advance, and reality will adapt to it afterwards.

Election mathematics does not end with the referendum. The next step, the elections, would be a classroom example of a magician's skill, in the event of their being held. Proportional representation yes, but! But with many, the more the better, constituencies, and with multiple list carriers, and with changeable candidates. The proportional representation system thus becomes almost a majority vote system, one is voting for a pig in a poke because completely new people may turn up in Parliament, because what is most important the list carrier selects and distributes his votes as suits him best. Simulating the necessary percentage of votes for one seat in Parliament shows that the system favors large parties. The more the constituencies the more the percent of votes needed for one candidate. As things now stand, SPS is satisfied with 14 constituencies, and has nothing against ten even, because it will be joined by the not so unwelcome radicals. With six constituencies both the democrats and the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) would fare relatively well. One constituency (or two, with respect to the republics of the new federation) would present the real balance of forces. The Democratic Movement of Serbia (DEPOS) and the Citizens' Alliance were formed according to this logic, but the opposition can get a more equal and even more favorable start only by being UNITED. Individual obstacles could prevent unification. If that is so, SPS will have deserved victory.