Prevlaka - The Montenegrins

The Montenegrins have been run aground by Prevlaka. An international military administration of Prevlaka means that its fate will be decided by Washington rather than Belgrade or Podgorica (Montenegrin capital). Belgrade did not plan the war with the rock in Boka Kotorska Bay in mind. A lot more was wanted - Dubrovnik and the Konavli (Dubrobnik's hinterland). The war has been lost, and the Montenegrins have lost face with their incursion into Croatia. Prevlaka, the last justification of the invasion, has turned into a political defeatboth for Bulatovic's Communists and the opposition's apologists of Montenegro's territorial expansionism. Even if Prevlaka were to be handed over to Podgorica, it would be a very weak justification for the war with Croatia, with which Montenegro has not had bloody conflicts in the past. Conflicts were prevented by economic development and the coastal linking of Montenegro and Croatia. The war was Podgorica's strategic failure. Perhaps Prevlaka will become part of Montenegro, because Croatia has enough coastline without this bare entrance to the Bay of Boka Kotorska. Prevlaka is not Gibraltar and it is doubtful if "Yugoslavia's" navy could be safely anchored in this shallow bay. Zagreb might even surrender it in exchange for war reparations or something else - but whatever that may be, Montenegrins will not reminisce about this war with pride, not because they did not fight bravely but because it was a useless political adventure thought up by the state's chieftains.

From the political point of view, Prevlaka is practically dead, and this will act towards reducing extreme nationalism. The inhabitants of Niksic (a hard-line enclave) and other Serbs will have to link their future to Montenegro's survival within Yugoslavia. The stand whereby Montenegro must have the same state borders as Serbia at any price, is not only a hard-line stand but one which pushes Montenegro into recklessly sharing Serbia's fate, regardless of its own interests. Bulatovic's group is not more flexible than Milosevic's - both are staying in power thanks to lawlessness, crime and control of the media. This, however, does not mean that Podgorica will follow Serbia to the end in its Greater Serbian and regressive Socialist adventure. If Milosevic wants war in Kosovo and if he is prepared to stir up a conflict between the Serbs themselves - those in Serbia proper and elsewhere, between Serbs and national minorities, there is no reason why Montenegro should participate in all this, even if it were to leave "Yugoslavia" with Bulatovic.

Belgrade is the real enemy of the international community, not a weak and puppet Podgorica. Bulatovic has led the Montenegrins into an unjust war and he is guilty. But, compared to Milosevic, who will not get off lightly, Bulatovic might get away with it, at least if he makes one good move and threatens with Montenegro's secession from "Yugoslavia," should Serbia continue to sink in the quagmire of its territorial ambitions and social disintegration. Serbia and Montenegro can remain together only if Belgrade has a democratic regime, because under a centralist dictatorship, Montenegro's weaker economy will be exhausted faster than Serbia's. At this moment the so-called Green nationalism (a more moderate political current than the so-called Whites), even though it faces the threat of populism, is more progressive. It is anti-war and does not wish to see a further disintegration of the state's economy. The Greens are in favor of foreign capital and ready for an opening towards Europe. The Whites have exhausted themselves in supporting the war, in nationalist hatred, and in linking themselves to the bankrupt Belgrade regime. Their score is not too good.

Bulatovic felt there was an alternative. He has probably been thinking of it for some time, and when the time is ripe, he will probably unfurl the Montenegrin flag of independence and appeal to the Montenegrins' sense of pride by telling them they need not be anyone's servants and explaining that the country can once again renew the alliance with Serbia, when Serbia comes to deserve the partnership. At the moment, this threat does not carry more weight than the Belgrade opposition's operatic threats with Crown Prince Alexander Karadjordjevic. Montenegro's opposition is much stronger. Bulatovic came to power on the flag of an independent Montenegro and with the patriotic support of the liberal intellectual opposition and with Ljubisa Stankovic's Socialists in Podgorica. In that case, Milosevic would have to decide if he wants to undermine Bulatovic via disturbances in Pljevlja and Niksic. In the event of violence, Montenegro will receive international support, and the Belgrade opposition will not lift a finger to help Milosevic and will accuse him for starting another fratricidal war.

If the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), headed by Borisav Jovic, avoids elections for the federal and republican parliaments, Serbia will find itself facing a dictatorship, chaos in Kosovo, an economic catastrophe, an invasion of refugees and an all out conflict between the nations in the territory of the former Yugoslavia. Montenegro will not wait for this. It has to flee from "Yugoslavia" in order to save itself. Bulatovic might also leave at some later date - decorated- something a good advisor would recommend. He might, however, lose the elections. Montenegrins want a peaceful transformation of a worn out political system, with the remnants of the economy and the infrastructure preserved. This will allow them to ask for loans from Italy and the United States, and in that case they will be able to send the odd ton of flour and chocolate to Serbia.