Smuggling In the Rose

Skilled in getting around an agreement and revoking all concessions they have to give in bad times as soon as circumstances permit, the Socialists have called a referendum for October 11, which few believe will succeed. The talks about electoral laws have been so long drawn out that it is uncertain whether the December elections will be held.

The opposition was skeptical about the regularity and outcome of the referendum; some called their sympathizers to take part in it, some have abstained, and SPO (Serbian Renewal Movement) called to a boycott. Many doubt in the validity of the voters lists, but it is not clear yet whether the Socialists are adding or subtracting.

The Socialists have simply found a move the opposition have no clear answer to: if the referendum succeeds, the elections will be held with the conviction that the opposition obstructed the referendum, which showed that the people were on its side; if it doesn't succeed, the republican elections will be postponed and the effect of the federal elections reduced because they will be able to block the federal government and blame it for their own mistakes. They will also accuse the opposition of not wanting the elections they have been fighting for.

However, the pre-election preparations are in motion. On October 4 the Civic Alliance held its convention attended by the leaders of almost all the political groups in Belgrade. Some consider that it is now more probable that the Civic Alliance may join DEPOS on the same election list, while, following a number of remarks against the Democratic Party heard in the DEPOS ranks, it is uncertain whether the Democrats will join DEPOS soon, though cooperation can be expected after the elections (if there are any and if anybody survives them).

All the parliamentary parties' leaders, as well as representatives of the ethnic Albanian alternative, were invited at the DEPOS convention, held on October 10.

On Tuesday October 6, in the Yugoslav Parliament, the Republican Chamber adopted the constitutional amendment regarding the end of mandate of federal MPs. The Civic Council, like the Serbian Parliament, didn't have a quorum last week to decide on this, which is a sign that the Socialists are stealing time.

The Federal Government has proposed eight electoral districts (Belgrade, Novi Sad, Zrenjanin, Kragujevac, Valjevo, Nis, Kraljevo and Pristina). The number of representatives per constituency moves between 10 (Kraljevo) and 20 (Belgrade), and the number of voters from 600,000 to 1,227,000.

The Socialists have demanded that Serbia be divided into 12 districts, and with their numerous amendments they have prepared their torpedoing of the electoral law. The Democratic Party considers that these amendments have reneged the agreement reached at the Round Table talks. Nebojsa Popov (Republican Club), Vojislav Kostunica (Democratic Party) and Cedomir Mirkovic (Social-Democrats) are asking for another meeting of the Round Table.

On Thursday, it was clear that no compromise had been achieved. The vice-president of the Federal Government, Dr. Oskar Kovac, told the press that the Government could propose 10 electoral districts (constituencies) if the political parties agree on the essential conditions for the elections. In other words, he was pushing the opposition to say "no". The Minister of Justice, Tibor Varadi, announced that the holding of the elections had been brought into question, but he expressed the tentative hope that an agreement may be reached for eight constituencies. This was concluded after the meeting of the Government attended by Dobrica Cosic, who will preside the next Round Table talks scheduled for October 10. DEPOS, however, requested that this meeting be postponed because it collides with the time of its own convention.

The Democratic Party of Serbia announced on Wednesday that it would not take part in the elections if there are more than six constituencies in Serbia. The Democratic Party and the Democratic Reform Party of Vojvodina announced that they would take part only if Serbia was divided into 8 districts at the most, which would be a big concession to the other side. They hold to the expert opinion that more than 6 constituencies negate the logic of a proportional electoral system, but they explain their concession as an answer to the call of Prime Minister Panic to consider this unfavorable proposal.

Mathematician from the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Mladen Kovacevic, demonstrated a model showing that more than 6 constituencies raises the minimum level of votes above the limit which divides the proportional system from the majority one. With 8 constituencies the minimum climbs to 7.4% votes (won last time by the Democratic Party), and with 15 constituencies this minimum amounts to 13.9, 2% less than that won by SPO (Serbian Renewal Movement).

Our mood antenna in the Serbian Parliament tells us that if 10 districts are proposed, the Democrats and SPO will boycott the elections. The opposition, which has no media, neither petrol for a campaign nor party infrastructure - cannot be satisfied with the multiplication of constituencies because this means a waste of votes.

The opposition parties are on their way to create at least a few major blocs, but they are afraid that, if they cross this critical line the scattered votes of the small parties will be lost to the Socialists. At the last elections there were 30% scattered votes.

Since 1990 the regime fears that the opposition will charge any minute, and the opposition leaders feel depressed because of their constant failure. Public opinion, however, has in stormy times remained unwilling for radical change. Opinion polls done by the Institute for Political Studies in Belgrade, showed last October, when the war in Croatia was culminating, that the Socialist Party, with 30% of the vote, was the strongest party; second in line was Seselj's Serbian Radical Party, which could then have won 15%; third was the Democratic Party with 12%, and fourth, the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) with 7%.

In February 1992, according to research carried out by the Institute of Social Sciences, which in December 1990 forecast the results of the elections, the popularity of SPS had fallen to 26% of the potential voters, SPO had 9%, the Democratic Party 7%, as much as at the last elections, and the Serbian Radical Party was not among the relevant parties able to collect 5%. However, in the May 1992 elections, which the democratic opposition boycotted, it won one third of the votes.

According to the latest research by the center "Medium" in Belgrade, DEPOS could now gain 28% of the vote, in second place is SPS with 16%, followed by the Democratic Party with 10%, the Serbian Radical Party with 10% and the Civic Alliance with 8%.

According to another poll, SPS could now count on 21% of the vote, DEPOS could get 17%, the Serbian Radical Party 11%, the Civic Alliance 12%, and the Democrats 7%.

The list of most popular personalities shows more clearly the confusion of the public: Dobrica Cosic is leading, followed by Patriarch Pavle, Prime Minister Milan Panic, Captain Dragan, big boss Jezda, Dafina and the Karics (bankers), Vojislav Kostunica, Dragoljub Micunovic, Slobodan Milosevic is in ninth place, but still way above Vuk Draskovic and Radoman Bozovic.

According to "Svetlost" daily from Kragujevac, the agency "Vox populi", with a sample of 356 people in Kragujevac, gives precedence to Milan Panic (22.9%), followed by Slobodan Milosevic with 15.6%, and then comes, with a considerably lower number of sympathizers, Vuk Draskovic, Vojislav Seselj, Dobrica Cosic and Dragoljub Micunovic.

It is thought that an all or nothing conflict between the opposition and the Socialists is now unavoidable and that it is only a question of what form it will take, whether elections or the risky, non-parliamentary form: "How many reserve police will Milosevic manage to mobilize!" and "Does Cosic really control the army to such a measure?"

One of VREME's opposition interlocutors accepts the thesis that it wouldn't even be so tragic under the present circumstances if the opposition were to lose honorably, if the political forces in parliament were to be equalized and if the willfully arrogant rule of one nomenclature were to be avoided. This is a rare mode of thinking: most people are obsessed with carrying out a total change, acting on the assumption that Milosevic, as a symbol of a failed policy which horrifies the world and harms the country, must go in the interests of the nation.

Sociologist Vladimir Goati, who researched the power and organization of the political parties, shows that SPS in 1989 and 1990 lost 600,000 members; in 1991 there were 275,000 new members amongst its official 430,000; after the departure of this party from working organizations, all official data on the membership of SPS became unrealistic; like the others, this party has only its leadership, but unlike the others, it has a powerful and stable professional apparatus enough to service an enormous membership. The Socialists, who threw away the five-pointed star and adopted the rose as their symbol, and who lost their social-democratic wing, are quaking with pre-congress fever.

Being aware that they still have great advantage, both organizational and material, they are procrastinating, but it looks as though they have chosen not to avoid the elections, but to use them to smuggle in their rose (SPS symbol) and hold on to power. This seems clear from the many repeats of Milosevic's speech on Tuesday October 6 in which he mentioned integrity, dignity and the rest. At the moment, when it is clear that Bozovic's summer measures have failed, Slobodan Milosevic praises "the good moves of the government".

This kind of crisis suits types like him. He promised everything to everybody. According to the "Encyclopedia Britannica", this formula was used by Hitler in the elections of 1933, by which the Weimar Republic was buried. He said he was pleased with the people who had "shown their patriotic consciousness", he called the economy and civilians to "look on the sanctions as a form of challenge", he spoke of the "mobilization of all forces", about "discovering our own possibilities of replacing imports", about "the greatest care for agriculture", he uncovered the strategical mistakes of his predecessors, asking "why do we use oil for heating when there is coal nearby?", and he told the fairy tale about the rapid payment for the hot water pipe Obrenovac-Belgrade, the motor way, rail and other projects, irrigation systems, the building of local roadways. He urged the administration to fight against the smuggling of hard currency and goods and other semi-legal business, as well as the theft carried out by people in power, as if he hadn't put them there.

This was a typical electoral speech and it's no wonder that on Thursday the self-confident Serbian Prime Minister, Radovan Bozovic, whose surrealistic dark glasses speak of a certain type of derision of reality, and all the Socialist MPs grind on in the same vein, using the same words to scold the opposition for not helping them with constructive criticism.

Federal Minister, Ljubisa Rakic, during one of the repeats of this speech on TV, complained on ITV Studio B that the federal government was suffering a virtual information block. In other words, the Socialists are from hour to hour continuing to discredit Milan Panic and to use him to pay for the elections and keep him out of the election game.