The Long Arm of the General

On Friday October 8 the UN Security Council passed Resolution 781 on the establishment of "safe skies" over Bosnia and Hercegovina, so that the Republic of Serbia's aviation has been "outlawed". At the same time, the president of the USA and a good part of the State Department, in spite of opposition from the Pentagon, are beginning to seriously consider the already announced possibility of American air forces attacking and destroying the aircraft and airports in Bosnia. It's all beginning to look like yet another American demonstration of brute force, and maybe it would come about if Radovan Karadzic, most probably frightened by the threat of total destruction of aircraft with all the accompanying implications, hadn't agreed on Tuesday to relocate them to airports in the FRY and hand them over to the Yugoslav Air Force and international observers for safe-keeping, in this way saving them for better times. On Thursday October 15, "Associated Press" reported the announcement of General Zivomir Ninkovic, Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence of the Bosnian Serbian Republic, who said the following: ".....The aircraft are going nowhere!" and added "... We don't want to be traitors, and I am sure that the Serbian people and their best sons, who are now on the front, would consider us to be traitors!" According to AP, the other air force officers supported their commander and announced that they would ignore the order to relocate the aircraft to the FRY. On the day this announcement was published, the President of the Bosnian Serbs still had not made a statement.

Announcements like this can mean only one thing. Karadzic is no longer able to control the military command which has in the past been known to carry out actions contrary to the decisions of political leaders. The situation is extremely unfavorable for the leader of the Bosnian Serbs, while the US president has an excellent cue for successful intervention or at least a show of power and in this way gain some pre-election points. This time it won't take long for the international community to pull itself together and make a decision. In any case, Karadzic was warned on Wednesday that the aircraft and airport in Banja Luka will be destroyed inasmuch as the agreement is reneged. Most probably the Americans will wait for the first plane to take off from Banja Luka airport, and then bring it down.

The air force of the so-called Serbian Republic has at its disposal around 40 "hawks" J1, "sea-gulls" G4, "eagles" 2 and a number of GAMA and MI8 helicopters, enough for an incomplete air force wing. If we omit the helicopters as primarily transport means, the planes that remain are a striking force well worth respecting. If it comes to American Air Force intervention on the airport at Banja Luka, most probably planes from the aircraft carriers "Saratoga" and "America" will be engaged, which don't have to be particularly near the Croatian coast. Both carriers have a capacity of between 80-85 aircraft. It is certain that the Serbian anti-aircraft artillery would open fire, and it is a question how long it would be able to hold out before it is destroyed. The runways and complete airport infrastructure would be destroyed, and Serb planes able by some miracle to take off would be brought down by a far stronger and more modern opponent, without a chance to fire back.

Let us remember that the Yugoslav Air Force command in May, when it was retreating from Bosnia, stated that these planes had been left because the pilots, originating from this area, refused to hand them over. In this way the Serbian Republic air force was set up, but with what are legally someone else's aircraft. Karadzic is now returning goods that were never his, but which are seriously worn out, broken down and damaged. Anyone ready to split hairs could sue him because of this, particularly when the eventual division of the property of the former SFRY takes place.

In the air force command and Headquarters of the Yugoslav Army, no-one is particularly thrilled by this return of property. In all truth, planes, whatever they are, are not cheap, but the repair and maintenance of the wrecks ruined by action in Bosnia will cost even more. It is a serious question where to put the forty odd planes which someone will have to watch over. Nonetheless it is considered by all that it is better for the planes to be in the territory of the FRY - as much because of possible abuse as because it is the least painful way of avoiding the problem of possible violations of the air space of the FRY and the unpleasant obligation of bringing down American aircraft - intruders, or ex comrades in arms. This in particular because, in spite of the announced abandonment of intervention, the possibility of American interference is great, and at the moment this is not agreeable to Serbs in Serbia or outside it. The impression of the public is that things are developing in a most unfavorable manner for Karadzic, who has had it clearly made known to him that people of influence no longer listen to him. If the disobedience of the air force commander is not a tactical ruse, then the leader of the Bosnian Serbs will have to carry out some radical moves. He might try to bring Ninkovic to reason or to order Generals Ratko Mladic or Momir Talic, who is in Banja Luka, to bring the rebel pilots to their senses, but this is unlikely. Ninkovic should be removed, and as this would not be easy, and maybe no-one would want to carry it out, it could be organized for a vital part of his airplane to seize up on landing. At the same time, Karadzic must take care where, by what and how he flies, because there is nowhere in Bosnia where he can land that Ninkovic's long arm can't reach him.