December Thirteenth, by Greek Calendar

The Yugoslav Prime Minister Milan Panic announced in Geneva that free democratic elections were one of the conditions for the lifting of the sanctions. A few days ago he announced that he would be running as one of the candidates, but it is not clear on whose list. He and Cosic will probably have to choose sides, but it still is unclear whether either is strong enough to form a relatively stable alliance. Yugoslav President Cosic said that political confrontations in Yugoslavia will be resolved in the right way, and that the course will be set by the democratic center, not the extremists.

The Federal leadership, which acts in its own sort of vacuum, is convincing in its demands for early elections; the others reluctantly consent to this, maintaining that there are still no conditions for elections. Zoran Djindjic (Democratic Party) announced, however, that he hoped the elections would be set in fifteen days at the latest, otherwise "political chaos will break loose".

On Wednesday October 21st, in the lobbies of the Serbian Parliament, there was talk that the elections would be announced; the Socialists foresaw that DEPOS and SPO (Serbian Renewal Movement) would decline to take part. The second round of talks, with the leaders of the MPs' groups, resulted after two hours in an agreement for holding the elections "at all levels". Dragoljub Micunovic (Democratic Party) explained that, apart from external and internal tensions, tautness between republican and federal institutions also speaks in favor of early elections. Zoran Lilic, leader of the SPS (Socialist Party of Serbia) MPs' group, informed the Parliament: "I can freely say we already have Serbian President's consent for early elections." He assured that "we can create the necessary conditions for holding both presidential and parliamentary elections by the end of the year", and that the only thing that could not be considered was the disbanding of the Parliament, "because, from our point of view, this would mean abnegation of legality".

In the minutes of the conclusions, issued on Thursday, October 22, there is frequent use of words "as soon as possible" and "in the shortest time", but few believe that the elections will be held on December 13, as Panic announced. The middle of January or even the beginning of February sounds more likely.

Apart from the basic principles, identical to those decided on in July, nothing has been set, obviously in expectation of the results of the SPS congress (held last week-end behind closed doors). Pavic Obradovic, vice-president of the Serbian Parliament, attacked the present SPS president ("Bora Jovic's time has passed").

Academic Mihajlo Markovic announced that Slobodan Milosevic would not resign, and that the Socialists would put forth his candidacy for Party president. If this were to happen, it would present a violation of Article 86 of the Serbian Constitution, saying: "The President of the Republic cannot carry out any other public function or professional activity." A few days later, the news arrived saying that this discrepancy had been overcome: Milosevic agrees to be president of the Socialist Party under the condition that his party position be "frozen" if he is elected president of the Republic. This practically means he has no thought of resigning, but is counting on an extension of his mandate at the elections, which in the first place are being held in order to get rid of him.

Last week, at the SPS Board meeting, the presidential elections were not on the agenda, although, as VREME found out from sources who are not neutral in this regard, the details of pre-election strategy were a topic. The Socialists are counting that DEPOS (Democratic Movement of Serbia) is being using Vuk Draskovic only temporarily, that this is "only a hoax" for the elections, which means that they could work on an intensification of tension within the Movement. They know they will have to give way for a certain number of delegates from the democratic center, in order to provide international legitimacy for the elections, which could also be used to widen the rift in the opposition ranks. They are positive that "together with Seselj" they will not lose the elections ("We estimate that our party and Seselj's will win over 50 percent." B. Jovic).

Seselj's Radicals go on attacking Panic, holding to Milosevic's directive that he's "America's man". At the SPS Board meeting it was mentioned that there is good cooperation and detailed agreement with Seselj on essential political questions regarding the elections. The incident in the Parliament when Seselj provoked Batric Jovanovic (SPS MP), who was asking questions about the raid on the Federal Police premises, indicates that maybe this agreement has something to do with neutralizing the dissidents.

Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic, in discussion with Borisav Jovic, noted it was possible that with the help of a majority in the Civil Council Borisav Jovic would come to be head of state and Seselj head of the Government.

The Socialist Party of Serbia is preparing to change its into Socialist Party of Yugoslavia, which could be connected to the possible intention to rule Montenegro after causing the break up of the Democratic Party. On the other hand, there are rumors about negotiations between DPS (Democratic Party of Socialists in Montenegro) and the Democratic Party concerning an alliance in support of Cosic and Panic. This party confirmed the possibility of making alliance with the Democrats to ensure the stabilization of the Federal Government, which could be the minimum agreement in the opposition center.

The Democratic Party and Democratic Reform Party, on completion of a tour of Vojvodina, have begun to look like a coalition and they confirmed their support for Cosic's and Panic's political styles and visions. Then the Democrats started a vigorous debate with the Civic Alliance about the character of autonomy in Vojvodina, though some of them are still counting on a possible coalition with the Alliance.

The Socialists' technique used in the Round Table talks proved to be a waste of time. Now their opponents, seeing that the Socialists are short of time, are trying to fight for their old demands. In a letter to Panic, Vuk Draskovic gave a detailed explanation of what DEPOS considers necessary for fair elections: six electoral constituencies, "liberation" of TV Serbia and the sacking of its directors, provision of the means for electoral campaigns, such as telephones and premises in all the districts in Serbia, a guarantee that party activists won't be mobilized, those who have lived in Serbia for less than a year banned from voting, all voting ballots to be water marked.

Draskovic has his reservations regarding the number of constituencies "because this system kills coalitions". Of ten members of a coalition it is hard to find a satisfactory compromise on nine electoral lists. One member of DEPOS admits that they don't have the wherewithal to organize ten electoral posts.

An extraordinary meeting of the Federal Government was held because of the announced resignation of Tibor Varadi, Federal Minister of Justice, motivated by "excessive compliance of the Government". When the meeting was over, Minister of Information Miodrag Perisic excitedly told the press: "It's all right, it's all right!". He added that there had been no resignations, only disagreement.

This compliance of the Government is seen in Vojvodina being divided "vertically" instead of "horizontally", whereby the Hungarians are harmed, and the number of electoral districts is raised to nine, which will alert the opposition. The participation of Rugova's Democratic Alliance of Kosovo in the elections is uncertain, since the ethnic Albanians want their status resolved first.

SPO is still saying "no" to the elections, but will accept them if an electoral law is passed beforehand, if the financing of the parties is properly arranged, if the Television is controlled and if campaign time of at least two months is given. This practically means the postponement of the elections: in the last three months none of these questions has been resolved at Round Table talks. Vojislav Kostunica (Democratic Party of Serbia) announced on Thursday that the elections were further away than ever. Dragan Veselinov (Farmers' Party) said that the opposition leaders would be meeting for consultations at the end of the week.

Vuk Draskovic called on Prime Minister Panic to revoke the law on elections and announced that SPO and DEPOS won't take part "in that kind of scenario", and that "maybe at the opposition margins he would find a few Trojan horses, ready to take on the race by SPS' rules, with pats on the back from the federal institutions and officials" but that "this will be tragic for Serbia". The "Trojan horse" metaphor gives the impression that attempts at making a "big coalition" won't easily give tangible results.

However, it is not certain that a large number of parties will definitely decide not to take part in the elections. The divided and quarrelsome opposition could now have one shared point - all parties in the center are inclined towards supporting the Federal Government, but they are still unable to get together under one leadership.

Again, some members of DEPOS suspect that Cosic may want to eliminate them from the race. In answer to the question whether, when they obviously are not able to unite, it was more realistic to expect two coalitions in the democratic center, Draskovic jokingly remarked that this could come about if Cosic were at the head of the Democrats (or did he say "leftists") and Panic on the DEPOS list.

Micunovic thinks that the separation of Panic from Cosic would harm Panic and would make easier his disqualification, which is what the Socialists are trying to do.

A number of people talking to VREME consider that spring would be a better time for the elections because the shivering and frozen voters would have turned against the present regime. However, the general impoverishment might increase the number of desperate votes for pro fascist groups.

The Serbian trade union announced a strike for December, declaring itself to be critical towards Bozovic's government. This didn't excite Bozovic, who is adept in manipulating strikes, just as the tepid action of the opposition against him didn't excite him - he completely ignored the demand for his resignation, not even appearing in the Parliament when the vote of confidence was taking place, saying he was busy "with a number of meetings". He continues to attack Panic, asking of him not to slow down the printing of money, and makes new promises around Serbia - for next year.

One opposition MP, looking at the behavior of the Serbian government, has come to the conclusion that they won't give up power at all and that - should it happen that the results are unfavorable to them - this could provoke critical situation. Dreading forceful intervention, they warm up various versions of coups allegedly planned in the last two years.

The paradox in the present situation is that a part of the democratic center gives the impression that it would not be at all unhappy if Cosic used the army. On Tuesday the rumor was rung round the Serbian Parliament that Cosic was in a critical state of health. An opposition politician who doesn't like Cosic nonetheless said that his legs gave way when he heard this. The situation looked dark and confused from this perspective. Some in the opposition think that these rumors are spread by the regime in order to prove Cosic incapable of ruling.

The conflict between Milosevic and Cosic has had a lot of publicity, with the assumption that Cosic has the officers and opposition behind him, and Milosevic members of his own party, the police and the Krajina militia. This was illustrated on Monday by the "property dispute" about the building of the Federal Ministry of Interior. The Civic Alliance, immediately followed by the Serbian Renewal Movement ("that man is prepared to turn Belgrade into another Sarajevo"), reacted quickly, considering it to be a form of police putsch. The Democratic Party judged it to be an act of force directed at weakening Yugoslavia's position at the talks in Geneva. The Democratic Party of Serbia judged the Cosic-Milosevic conflict to be a result of leniency towards SPS. DEPOS characterized the incident as "most serious violation of the legal system". Milosevic welcomed the opportunity to be photographed, along with his Minister of Interior Sokolovic, beside General Panic, so that he could fan the speculation as to whether the army is against the Serbian regime. General Panic's earlier announcement that the army was against forceful change of government was discreetly repeated. Then again, Cosic sat down with the army the next day and announced a meeting at the top regarding the un-blocking of the federal police. At the critical moment, the army made it clear it respected its supreme commander. Nonetheless, Milosevic may have made an impression with Sokolovic's action on confused voters, with his insolence and endeavors to represent the federal government as indecisive and powerless.

Milosevic still uses "dispossessed Serbs" as his guard. The trouble with these Serbs is that they are relying on the most totalitarian layer in Belgrade, but that's not all. Greeted by long applause at a session of the Belgrade Circle on Saturday (October 17), the Serbian Liberal leader from Croatia Milorad Pupovac said that the situation in Zagreb was better today than yesterday and that Zagreb was watching with great interest what happens in Belgrade. He talked warmly of the people who in difficult circumstances hold high the flame of civilization which promises that one day they will be able to live together, and he expressed the hope that these circles will widen.

And so, such hopes are tied into this darkening city, oppressed by refugees, violence and confusion.