Election Energy

Prime Minister Milan Panic, denied and said that he would just "support certain people and programs". It is still not clear how Cosic's "victory of the moderate majority" will come about or whether he will take part personally in the elections.

Zoran Djindjic (Democratic Party) seemed in the know on Monday when he announced that Cosic and Panic might present their own electoral lists, without actually taking part in the elections. Vesna Pesic (Civic Alliance) thinks the opposition should make up a kind of winning combination. The democratic opposition finally found a point of agreement: support to the Federal Government, i.e. Cosic and Panic. Vojislav Kostunica (Democratic Party of Serbia) questioned Cosic's and Panic's results: "Panic set a date for the elections even though there are no conditions for them, and Cosic announced that the Round Table talks were his big success, though, in fact, they were not". He thinks the Federal Government has practically accepted the Socialists' conditions for the elections. This can be heard from other members of DEPOS, along with the opinion that Panic might have some unknown obligation to Milosevic.

The Vojvodina Reformists came out with the idea of combined action with the democratic opposition, considering that as a small party they can play the role of mediator. The formula for the division of mandate from the first consultations has been moved by five percent in favour of DEPOS, which has been offered 55% of seats; the coalition of Democrats and Vojvodina Reformists 35, the Civil Alliance 10. The Democrats in Vojvodina would appear with the Vojvodina Reformists on a 50:50 basis. Since DEPOS already has an agreement for 54:46 in favour of Vuk Drskovic, in the end he might be dissatisfied because he won't be in a position to fulfill the expectations of his strongmen.

Zoran Djindjic (Tuesday, ITV Studio B) defended his thesis that the opposition would function better in two blocs. He emphasized that the Democratic Party has distanced itself from DEPOS because of its over-dosed royalism.

The opposition leaders are still unable to say if, how and with whom they will take part in the elections. It is not known yet whether Rugova's Albanians will take part in the elections. Their entry into the arena would change the balance of power considerably.

DEPOS announced that there were no the conditions for elections, but it is prepared to make a compromise, saying "yes to elections, no to the present conditions". Without DEPOS the elections will be irregular and invalid, say its spokesmen.

The negotiations between the opposition parties were continued without too much enthousiams, since in the meantime the old squabbling had continued. It looked as though the political differences between DEPOS and the Democrats have not been overcome. It was announced that the opposition parties agreed that elections were necessary, but that the conditions were unacceptable. Eeach party, could put forward its minimum conditions for taking part.

Dragoljub Micunovic (Democratic Party), regarding inequality in the elections, said that his party would take part in elections with nine constituencies inasmuch as the other conditions are correct and that the behavior of the media is precisely defined. However, at the republican round table talks he surprised the others by requesting that Serbia be a single electoral unit.

With regards to the presidential elections, the new secretary of SPS, Milomir Minic, said that the President of the republic has "approved the elections". It has not yet been discussed who could be a candidate for the post. The name of academic Ljuba Tadic has been shyly mentioned, but it is unsure whether this is a serious proposal.

Cosic has announced the amending of the Federal Constitution after the elections, in order to limit the authority of republican presidents. However, this intention was met with a stony silence by the Montenegrins, initiated open hostility between the Serbian and the federal authorities, and caused fear that the eventual pro Cosic coalition would not have the majority needed to change the Constitution. Milosevic's taking over of the helm of the Socialist Party could mean that he is preparing to step down, which could mean that the boat is sinking, that too many pretenders to the leadership have appeared and that by taking over the position he has brought the disintegration of the party to a halt. Or maybe Borisav Jovic's announcement is correct that Milosevic took over the helm because no-one dared to compete with him.

There was a big tug of war during the republican round table talks, which went on till late at night on Wednesday (October 28). The procedural discussion lasted five and a half hours; SPS and SRS (Serbian Radical Party) rejected Nebojsa Popov's (Civil Alliance) proposal that round table talks be held throughout the elections, which means that it remains for the present government to organize and control the elections. However, the Federal Government has left open the possibility that its round table be a kind of election controller. The majority of representatives reproached the government for wasting election campaign time.

The Serbian Parliament adopted the changes to the Constitutional Law whereby republican elections are set for December 20. The Minister of Justice, Zoran Cetkovic, explained these changes by the fact that the procedure of coordinating the Republican Constitution with the Federal is still in process, and temporary freezing of the norms of length of mandate has been applied.

At that moment there were still 52 days to the elections. Elections can be announced the night before the 45th day prior to the voting. The laws will be passed at the last moment and there won't be enough time to change them.

The ruling party proposed that Serbia be divided so that a choice of 10 to 14 delegates be offered at each electoral position, i.e. that Serbia be divided up into around 20 districts; Seselj, who up to now has been the best informed as to the further steps of the Socialists, suggested 18 districts; some opposition MPs estimate that the Socialists will go down to 15. The Socialists are working for the election of the same number of delegates per election point in the republican elections as there will be in the federal elections. Some of their parliamentary officials have said that they will cautiously give in, trying to assess whether DEPOS will really refuse to take part in the elections or whether it is bluffing. The opposition wanted one electoral district, and was ready to give in to nine.

For the present Serbian opposition twenty or more constituencies are an almost unbridgeable obstacle, because of its modest material and personnel resources.

Not one party has announced who its potential candidates are; it is not clear how these three or more hundred candidates will be presented to the public. This indicates that not even the opposition leaders have reached the conclusion suggested by certain surveys - that the public is tired of the whole political scene, not only of the ruling party, and that new faces should be launched.

It looks as though the opposition would be satisfied if the main TV information programs were to be divested of commentary, that objectivity be controlled by a multi-party commission and that promotion time be correctly regulated. The Democratic Party asked for one of Radio Television Serbia's (RTS) channels to be given to the Federal Government with its own director. The announcement of the Federal Government that it would increase the audibility of the two independent TV stations doesn't look as though it is technically possible in the short time given. The Federal Government asked that Milorad Vucelic resign as director of RTS considering that at the Socialist congress he was chosen for the propaganda department of this party. He answered that he would "freeze" his party function.

Serious researchers of public opinion say that it is much more inert than the bubbly political surface. The basic moods change slowly, the authority syndrome is increased by the crisis, and devotion to the guilty government is, on many indicators, inexplicably strong. Whether or not they wanted to, the Socialists have controlled a large portion of the voting body up to now. At one time an army of 400,000 members in working organizations signed up that they were faithful to them. Many say that this probably wasn't true, though it is certain that they hold whole layers in dependence to Serbia as a united social company.

Although Milan Panic and Dobrica Cosic offer hope to this bewitched crowd, it is not clear if this hope is enough for them to leave the shaky safety of the socialist wing. The "Vox Populi" survey, published by the Kragujevac "Svetlost", in a pool of 142 people, gave Cosic the excellent average mark of 4.69 (out of 5), and Panic 3.81. Of the opposition politicians the nearest to them is Vojislav Kostunica with 3.76. Slobodan Milosevic is in the sixth place, behind Milan Paroski and Kosta Cavoski.

It looks as though the Socialists still have not lost the main bodies of support. The opposition in the center still has not succeeded in presenting itself in such a way to make it easy for the more moderate portion of SPS voters to move over in a logical and painless manner.

It is strange but sure that the Socialists are more worried about the possibility of losing power than the disappointment of the hungry. Mr Milosevic's crisis is illustrated by a small indicator from Kragujevac. The "Zastava" strikers wrote him a letter in which they said that their biological survival was endangered, that they could no longer accept the degradation offered to them by the Serbian government and company directors, that up to now they have borne the burden of hard times, and that their status was more and more unbearable, demanding of him that with the "power of his authority" he prevent "a large number of workers, through no fault of their own, being left hungry on the street". They didn't strike because their September salaries were paid out.