Arithmetics of Victory and Defeat

The chance for the opposition is in a United opposition - this is the explicit message of public opinion research results. If the opposition was headed by the Yugoslav President and the Federal Prime Minister - illogical, but possible solution - it would get support from 35-38 percent of voters; its rating would far overcome the sum of the powers of particular coalition parties; it would belittle the strength of Milosevic's Socialist Party (SPS) to less than 20 percent; and it would decrease the number of undecided. Potential abstinences of 20 percent taken into account, the united opposition would be able to form a government. However, clear arithmetics is not sufficient for an easy creation of the opposition coalition, due to various reasons - unfulfilled party interests and personal relations among party leaders being the most important. Furthermore, the position of the top federal officials is yet not clear; they support the opposition stealthily, suggesting the electorate where they stand, but neither the Federal Prime Minister Panic nor the President Cosic have decided to institutionalize their more and more obvious conflict with Milosevic to the degree of placing themselves at the head of the opposition.

Among the parties taken separately, Milosevic's SPS is still the strongest (more than 22 percent support); it is followed by equally placed Radicals (SRS) and Micunovic's Democrats (around 9 percent) and Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) (a little over 8 percent). Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and its leader Kostunica have recently recorded the biggest rise in rating, getting 6,4 percent of respondents' votes. In sum, democratic opposition parties are supported by less than 30 percent of respondents. The prospects for the opposition would be a bit more favorable if it run the election associated in more blocks. According to MF survey, two opposition coalitions - DEPOS and the one around the Democratic Party (DS) - could keep the balance. If the election competition goes on with 4 large participants (SPS and SRS versus DEPOS and DS), the victory would be closer to SPS rather than to DEPOS. It is quite sure that the ethnic Albanians will abstain from the election. Their 10 percent votes, plus 6,4 percent of those who are determined not to take part in the political life, and plus the part of the electorate that will dissolve for various reasons, will make about 20 percent of non-voters. Those still undecided - about 20 percent - and 7 percent of supporters of ethnic minorities parties could significantly disturb the established balance of power. The authorities are primarily supported by the older, retired people in particular, while the opposition counts rather on younger voters. The outcome envisaged from the present situation would probably be a narrow victory of the SPS. The possibility of subsequent partnership of DEPOS and DS is neutralized by a potential subsequent coalition between SPS and SRS and will result in forming a minority government. The majority in the Parliament could be won only by a big victory of one election runner among the undecided.

The opinion poll most important message for the opposition therefore is a unity, at any price, even if it includes an agreement of holding new election after the victory in order to avoid disputes about election slates. From the standpoint of the authorities, the conclusion is the same: the unity of the opposition should be prevented, at any price.

Information offered by public opinion polls are not useful only for election strategies but for deeper sociological analyses as well. An average Yugoslav citizen is inclined to believe nobody in regard to politics, but on the other hand he/she mostly uses television as information source, generating his attitudes from the stands promoted by television every evening. The citizens find the UN sanctions unjustified and a result of a conspiracy against the Serbs (63,1 percent), but they think they could survive under sanctions (44 percent). Since the war has become a part of everyday life, there is a favorable attitude in regard to domestic military involvement in Bosnia-Herzegovina. If there will be a foreign involvement, 51.7 percent will support Yugoslavia taking part in the war. Social conflicts are envisaged by 53,4 percent of citizens, and inter-party incidents resembling a civil war even by 58,8 percent of the interviewed. The attitudes regarding external affairs and minority rights are indicated by 55 percent recorded answers against recognizing Macedonia, and 56 percent against opening of University in Albanian language.

Democracy on our territories is only developing and it is no wonder that there are contradictions in the attitudes of respondents. These contradictions which are easy to see are a result of undefined political attitudes and extremely strong influence of television on shaping public opinion regarding most pressing issues. On issues which are not devoted much attention by television the public opinion poll has recorded a great dispersion of answers.

The forthcoming election will problematize the issue of goal priorities. The responsibility is very big and neither regime nor opposition leaders could avoid it.