New World Disorder

Lord Carrington gave up when he felt that his nervous system was at stake after dancing on the spot for a year. Along with Cyrus Vance, who in Croatia at least achieved an illusory and temporary cease fire, another English aristocrat, and also ex Minister of Foreign Affairs, has been given a chance. It looks as though Europe believes that a conservative British noble has the best chances of understanding and solving the Bosnian problem.

At first sight, this looks paradoxical, because Lord Owen comes from circles where Bosnia is viewed as something a gentleman would never have anything to do with. But the British have great experience in untangling conflicts in its former colonies and meting out justice to all sorts of races and peoples. It is most probable that, without cynicism, someone concluded that Bosnia is the kind of messy situation characteristic of the so-called Third World, and therefore best looked after by someone who doesn't suffer from excessive sensitivity. I don't know if Lord Owen is such a man, but it is clear that it has been decided in Europe to work on the Bosnian conflict from the respectable distance of the lovely town of Geneva.

Of course, Europe isn't the most responsible for this war. Whatever European policy was, the primary culprits are Milosevic and Karadzic who took up arms and who now are loudest in blaming Europe. But, it is now clear that Europe displayed a scandalous lack of orientation in the Yugoslav crisis. From the very beginning so many different and controversial messages and ideas have come from it, to be read by each in his own way for the planning of political strategy. There is no doubt that Slovenia and Croatia were counting on the support of Germany; that the Moslems were relying on the protection of an internationally recognized Bosnia; that the Serbs were putting their trust in weapons and assuming that no-one would really interfere.

Although it has lived for so long in a state of stable peace, Europe shouldn't have been surprised by the explosion here of violence, which was similar to that already seen before the Second World War. Insistence on Yugoslavia, or the recognition of some or all of its republics wouldn't have been so wrong if it had been followed by clear cut and decisive action. The worst thing was to uphold the right of nations to self-determination and then leave a country made up of so many minorities to find a peaceful solution.

European and world diplomacy is now hopelessly searching for this peaceful solution to Bosnia. The unfortunate Alija Izetbegovic was encouraged to call a referendum on sovereignty with the promise of instant recognition, in the naive belief of the magical power of his word. Milosevic didn't allow himself to be confused, correctly judging that even a small power is big if there is no-one to withstand it.

If the recognition of Bosnia was a mistake, it can no longer be revoked without even greater disgrace, and there is no point in discussing moves that can not be undone. In Europe, and in the middle of the war, wrangling goes on about who is to blame, and though this may be important for mutual relations, Bosnia would be grateful if it were done a little quieter, because the guns there are listening carefully and react immediately. It is not difficult to imagine how the news is received that in Paris it has been shown that in fact Bosnia did not fulfill conditions for independence - just another note in the history of European capitulation.

Weakness and cowardice always find good excuses. Many were already prepared to accept the division of Bosnia, and maybe later, of Macedonia, basing their arguments on the various historical injustices that fashioned the Balkan borders. As if there could ever be legitimate borders anywhere in the Balkans without ethnic cleansing and genocide. Nonetheless, where Bosnia is concerned, the Geneva Conference has correctly placed the problem. Lord Owen and Cyrus Vance have dropped the idea of cantonization, it being clear to them that Serbs and Croats would achieve this by conquering and creating ethnically clean territories.

The Finnish diplomat Atisari has provided a proposal for a new constitution for Bosnia and Hercegovina which would satisfy abstract justice and now someone has to be found to introduce and enforce it. Before the war broke out, the idea that Bosnia be an entity and very decentralized, divided into ten or more regions irrespective of the ethnic map, was maybe one of salvation. But even then a strong outside authority was needed, despite the fact that Atisari's constitution offers everyone maximum protection from domination.

However, Karadzic didn't go to war because he felt jeopardized and afraid of a united Islam state, but because he got weapons from the JNA to carry out the Belgrade project of a Greater Serbia. If this weren't so, he would be satisfied with the offer from Geneva. But now, in the middle of an evil and genocidal war, no-one has any time for abstract justice, and a rational and wise solution seems illusory, ridiculous and almost insulting. Serb and Croat war leaders, in accepting this Bosnian constitution, would have to admit that they were complete idiots.

All the same, Owen and Vance will insist on this piece of paper, because European and world leaders will have to sign a similar thing. They will have to admit that Karadzic and Boban, as well as Milosevic and Tudjman, have promoted the principles of a New World Disorder.

The essence of the Geneva constitution for Bosnia is that, for the first time since the bloody disintegration of Yugoslavia, in the name of the international community something is being offered that looks like the vision of a possible goal. It shows what the most stable and just outcome could be, and it should be a clear direction for every future international action. Up till now the world has reacted chaotically to the events, wavering between attempts to save Yugoslavia and attempts to find an nonexistent principle according to which disintegration should take place. Apart from a general rejection of violence, it has not been clear in whose name and for what aim one person is supported and another punished.

Thus, a solution in the spirit of the standards and values of this civilization has been found for Bosnia, one which eliminates violence and provides the conditions for the return of refugees. Of course, national interests are damaged, primarily those of Serbia and Croatia. Because the war is being fought for this, the solution must be forced on them, if not by weapons, then by the greatest concentration of pressure this indifferent world is capable of.

The Croat appetite will be a considerably easier case because Tudjman is a prisoner of his own desire to be accepted in Europe. The Serbo-Croatian agreement on the division of Bosnia would be over and done with if Croatia were not being pressured by those it dare not anger. Lord Owen himself threatened Tudjman with sanctions, which is definitely the beginning of pressure to accept the new Geneva solution.

It is harder with the Serbs, but even they no longer give the impression of invulnerability. Karadzic first of all rejected the idea of a non-ethnic regionalization of Bosnia, because he would have to take back all those people he has forcefully displaced and driven away. Then he agreed in principle to discuss the matter, followed by his announcement that he would withdraw from the negotiations in Geneva if that was all that was being offered to him. At last he returned to the table, despite the decision of the parliament of Bosnian Serbs. He will take a hard line as long as he has military superiority, but the vision of the secession of Serbian Bosnia must be slowly fading before his eyes. If he isn't worried by international military intervention, he has reason to think about the possibility of the world slowly beginning to supply arms to Izetbegovic. And Owen firmly promised General Mladic that the world would never allow for a Greater Serbia to be created by force in Bosnia.

To end with, the war in Bosnia and acceptance of the Geneva constitution depends a lot on the outcome of the conflict between the federal and republican powers in Belgrade. Without Milosevic, Karadzic can't go on much longer, and Panic, Cosic and anyone who talks of peace simply have no way to reject this solution. At the time of the vote of confidence in Panic's government in Belgrade, a severe message arrived from Lord Owen that the bringing down of this government would once again put military intervention on the agenda. I don't know how much this influenced Panic's survival, but the Owen-Vance tandem stubbornly continues to water the Bosnian ashes, waiting for something to begin to grow. It looks as though they have divided the role in the classic way for training animals. The American Quaker gains trust with his mildness and understanding, while the British aristocrat cracks his whip. Nonetheless, everyone here will want to check whether the whip is a real one.