Ajar Door of the War

President of Macedonia Kiro Gligorov was in Ohrid where he opened Helsinki Parliament International Peace Conference. Journalists covering the conference say that on the eve of the "black Skoplje Friday" Macedonian President, otherwise known as a calm and stable person, was in a very good mood, even a bit euphoric. Not without reason. Some encouraging indications concerning the recognition of Macedonia were coming from many sides just in those days; on the other hand, the Ohrid Conference gathered more than 500 participants from almost all European countries - a very good sign for a state yet not formally recognized.

On that same evening, in an interview to Radio B-92, the Macedonian President answered the question how the problem of Kosovo was seen in Macedonia. Gligorov saw the problem solution "within the borders of Serbia and Yugoslavia and in respecting of all those rights required by the international public and our own peace". He added that the problem could be solved only by living together, that it was a difficult road and that Macedonia had to go along it as well.

"Perhaps we were fortunate that over here there were no direct conflicts with ethnic Albanians or other minorities, but this does not lessen the severity of the problem", Kiro Gligorov said.

Only 24 hours later, that bit of fortune mentioned by the Macedonian President was to be lost in shootings and bloody clashes along narrow streets of Bit-pazar. On that evening, Macedonia, the only ex-Yugoslav republic that came out of Yugoslavia peacefully, without victims, choosing a moderate, not-nationalistic option, became just another "delinquent Balkan state". Macedonian-Albanian relations, having been on a downhill road for years, fell on that night at the lowest possible level in the postwar period, while on both sides a number of extremists claiming that "all this could be solved by no other means but arms" largely increased.

What is now openly wished by extremists was feared to happen by many participants of the Ohrid Conference. Some of them assess that the door, up to recently just "ajar" to a new war conflict in the Balkan, now, after Bit-pazar victims, is widely open and that a new war wind blows stronger and stronger. Taking these thoughts further, some foreign correspondents claim that in Skoplje nobody wonders whether the war will spread to Macedonia but when this will take place.

A whole week after the "bloody Skoplje Friday" not all the circumstances of the case have been clarified: why did the Macedonian police demonstrate its strength on small dealers; how could the ethnic Albanian program on TV Skoplje broadcast falsely that a 15-years old cigarette dealer Ali Sejdi "was beaten to death by the police", the news that turned the already hot situation in the quart into an explosion of rage (on the same evening, in its first statement, the police reported that the arrested boy was 19). Many of similar "hows" and "whys" have been recently raised by the "Nova Makedonija" daily columnist; he has called upon the policemen to explain why they decided to arrest a 15-years old boy just on that day - when they used to buy lower-priced cigarettes from him and his friends before going to work every day. Why has none of the "bosses" who turn over hundreds of thousands of German marks every day been arrested so far, why are the names of those who shot the victims still unknown, were the victims armed or were they ordinary, loyal citizens? - the paper columnist has asked.

In the meantime, some of the questions were answered by police authorities, at least indirectly. It was reported that after clashes at Bit-pazar 128 persons were arrested, 32 among them already having problems with order-keeping forces. The police expelled 27 rioters, 11 of them being citizens of Albania and 16 living in Kosovo (Serbia). Subsequent police expertizes showed, as it was stated, that two out of three ethnic Albanians shot had used arms during the clashes, while two had already been recorded as "criminals" in police archives.

Macedonian nationalists, who see a terrific opportunity in this case to improve their political rating, have accused ethnic Albanian parties for "anti-Macedonian and anti-regime behavior aiming to de-stabilize the Macedonian state" (VMRO-DPMNE). The top party officials have accused the Internal Affairs Minister Ljubomir Fr~kovski to be over tolerant towards Macedonian Albanians - as well as the whole Government. It was also pointed out, "by the way" that he was married to an Albanian. Minister Fr~kovski later told an AFP journalist that ethnic Albanian separatists in Macedonia "were supported by Muslim fundamentalists, financed by Libya and Iran".

Very soon a similar accusation was to come from the Albanian side. The top officials of the National Democratic Party (NDP) asked: "How many Albanians and members of other ethnic groups have to be killed in order for Macedonia to get a shape of a democratic state, based on the rule of a law and equality of all its citizens?" A leader of the PDP-NDP Parliament coalition Muhamed Haljilji said that a strong revolt of ethnic Albanians in Macedonia was provoked by the brutality of the Macedonian police; he was not sure how long the conflict could be avoided. Haljilji also mentioned armed groups of ethnic Albanians, but he accused the VMRO Party for having its paramilitary forces. (The official data of the Macedonian police show that in the last year 17 organized groups were arrested - 52 persons in total; 54 machine-guns, 27 rifles, 98 guns and 18 bombs were confiscated; 90 percent of the arrested were ethnic Albanians. The data are not that bothering when compared with others from ex-Yugoslavia, but the authorities are worried by the fact that in last months more and more arms, a suitable equipment for paramilitary formations, come to Macedonia).

"We came to the conclusion - says Haljilji - that the Macedonian police had organized and provoked the whole case with the aim to secure the international recognition of Macedonia. Obviously, a recipe from Bosnia-Herzegovina was used; there as well the recognition was obtained after beginning of ethical conflicts. The Macedonian public knows very well that the biggest smugglers in Macedonia are former Macedonian ministers, some company directors, and "Makpetrol", a firm engaged in oil business. What an irony - instead of chasing after big thiefs, the police expresses its rage over the back of a teenager".

As the time passed, the focus of the analysis has moved to the issue about gains and losses for interested parties. In all subsequent speculations, the explosion of violence on both sides, as a possible cause of the conflict, has been replaced by various "scenarios". The final calculation, in fact, is quite simple: benefits could be drawn by those for whom the recognition of Macedonia and its internal political stability are not convenient; losses could be suffered by Macedonia only, since ethnic conflicts, as has been shown by many examples from surrounding territories, are the best excuse for military intervention of neighbor countries. In his last version and evaluation of the happenings, Minister Fr~kovski mentions "a combination of external political interests and 'awaken guild awareness' of local smugglers".

One of the "external political interests" is recognized in the politics of ethnic Albanians from Kosovo, who, according to claims coming from Skoplje, would not greet the recognition of Macedonia since it interferes their plans on establishing the "United Albanian States". The thesis of riots being ordered from Kosovo does not get along with the fact that the alleged call for Albanians' riot remained without any obvious response in Western Macedonia with majority Albanian population. At the beginning of Skoplje disorders, all ethnic Albanian parties of Macedonia seemed quite confused and surprised. Midhat Emini, the secretary of the PDP its MP Esref Aliju have tried to cool down the demonstrators and talked them to leave. The result of their effort was the police intervention in order to save them out from masses of outrageous rioters.

The police story of the event says that the riot has been planned. Bringing of large quantities of send, stones and rubber (burned at street barricades) few days before the incident is mentioned as the strongest proof in a support to this idea. From circles close to the Macedonian police it can be heard that among demonstrators there were identified several persons of Albanian nationality who led the riot known from before on as "KOS collaborators". The same sources state that parallel with disorders in Skoplje, leaflets in Albanian language, with a printed "manifest" of the so called Autonomous Republic of Ilirida, were spread in Tetovo and Ki~evo. The Albanians who saw the leaflets state they were written in a "bad Albanian language". This, as an idea and a method, irresistibly resembles some previous actions of the former KOS, from the time when the Yugoslav Army was situated in Macedonia. It is also stated that immediately after break out of demonstrations unidentified members of the Serbian police interrupted the radio-communication of Macedonian police offering it 200 people for help. In last few weeks, just to mention, the Macedonian weekly "Puls" has been publishing a sensational feuilleton on KOS involvement in plans for de-stabilization of Macedonia.

Some analysts of Macedonia insist on the alleged strong interest of Serbia to de-stabilize Macedonian situation.

Everything happening in accord with the slogan "The worse, the better", these analysts say, suits the interests of the Serbian-Greek axe. Disorders in Skoplje broke out only few days after Vojislav Seselj, in an interview to a Greek newspaper, had divided Macedonia in four parts and promised Greek friends to be a neighbor country of Serbia. For Serbia, the same sources say, it would be convenient if the problem of Kosovo started being "solved" in Macedonia. In a potential ethnic Albanian-Macedonian conflict in Macedonia, the Serbian side would easily find a reason and a way to help Macedonia to "discipline" ethnic Albanians. The military intervention in internationally unrecognized Macedonia could be amortized by a thesis of a "brotherly help". According to this "scenario", Serbia would take "its North Macedonia territories". The Greeks would not grow angry because of this, while the Bulgarians, who are now playing upon the card of Macedonian territorial integrity (with their dominant influence, however) would probably cut off their part too.

The situation in Macedonia resembles the pre-war situation in former Yugoslav republics not only in regard to serious ethnic problems smoldering for years (at least from 1988 when, by the new Constitution, the Albanians from a state-nation became the ethnic minority ) and turning today into bitter conflicts. In Macedonian Parliament one can see similar scenes to those, at the time before the war, seen in Craotian or Bosnian Parliament. MPs compete in propagating national intolerance, calling each other "monkeys", which seems as spilling oil over the fire. According to some assessment, similar to happenings in Bosnia, the war in Macedonia could also begin by a withdrawal of ethnic Albanians from the Parliament. Extremists in Albanian lines have been suggesting such a solution for quite a time since "nothing has been achieved" in the Parliament; namely, Albanian parties remain a minority in every important voting - on state symbols, hymn, citizenship... Within ethnic Albanian parties in Macedonia for quite a period violent verbal struggles are being fought, over the dilemma of taking a more radical or a more cooperative stand in regard to the Macedonian state. It is possible that the extreme, "Greater Albanian" stream sees its chance in riots like the one that happened at Bit-pazar. There are more and more signs indicating that extremism is supported from overseas, some European and Kosovo circles, aiming at establishing the "Greater Albania". These circles are obviously unsatisfied by the way the unstable ethnic relations in Macedonia are handled, although it requires huge political efforts and often results in misunderstandings.

Serious fermenting has started among Macedonian parties as well. The latest events, it seems, have shaken the beliefs of the Liberals (former Reformists) that they should be a partner in a coalition Government where 5 ministerial seats are taken by ethnic Albanians. It is obvious that the liberals are turning towards right, coming closer to attitudes of VMRO on some issues. The same goes for a fraction (of Gosev) of the Social-democratic Party which is radicalizing its positions. After the latest events, a disintegration of the ruling coalition seems quite probable, meaning that Macedonia could have the election prior to the one scheduled for next spring.

"Well informed circles" in Skoplje confirm that new political earthquakes and incidents could be expected in near future, even heavier then those that took place on November 6 at Bit-pazar. Some "very well informed sources" announce new clashes for November 19 and 24, connecting this with new international causes (presence of foreign delegations). In the mean time, the European Community keeps on playing upon a "safe card" of recognizing ex-Yugoslav republics only after the war broke out. Some respected Greek journalists would also like to play upon a "safe" card when calling openly for a military intervention: "And what do we do? - one of them asks himself. Instead of establishing a dynamic coalition with the Serbian president Milosevic, this brilliant statesman, and solving the problem of Skoplje effectively and painlessly by swallowing this area, we behave like hens. We have forgotten that in this world of general deteriorating wins the one who surprises from the ambush, the one who fires first".

Anyway, during his stay in the USA, Kiro Gligorov has required from Butros Gali to send the UN peace troops to Macedonia. The experience shows that in all-Balkan gambling this card is not very safe. It has so far been played upon only few months after "those from the ambush had fired first".

I About 40 policemen break by tear gas a group of 3000 demonstrators into two groups at 6 p.m.

II Second intervnetion (50 policemen) at 6:30 p.m.

III Third intervention (30 policemen) at 6:45 p.m.

IV Sixty policemen push demonstrators towards Jaja pasa suburb at 7:30 p.m.

V Fifth intervention at 8 p.m. when shooting at the police started

VI Sixth intervention involving special police unit and armored cars at 8:30 p.m.