The Winning Combination

A meeting between the opposition leaders and Yugoslav Prime Minister Milan Panic has brought hope: Milenko Radic (Democratic Movement of Serbia - DEPOS) described the meeting as "almost historical", Ceda Mirkovic (Social Democratic Party) said that this was "a crucial date in creating democracy" and that the "democratic coalition is a reality today". Vesna Pesic (Civic Alliance) called the event "a large step forward". Slobodan Rakitic (Serbian Renewal Movement - SPO) spoke about "President Cosic and Prime Minister Panic's help" which depends on the opposition itself and on "a new beginning".

The prevailing disposition in the opposition was nothing like the "wet hen" mood which followed Cosic's speech last week ("Gentlemen, I will think about which forces to support when I see their program"). They began to use new words, such as - the winning combination and the democratic coalition. Zoran Djindjic and Slobodan Rakitic say that the term "democratic opposition" has been denounced: "We are no longer the opposition, the authorities are in our coalition!" This may be good for marketing purposes, because in Serbia's history the government to schedule the elections was usually the government to win them. They believe they have compelled the federal leadership to give them concrete, not just verbal support.

We are used to the sudden expressions of joy by Belgrade opposition politicians which are followed by a long depression, so it would be wise to wait a little before jumping to conclusions. However, last Thursday (Nov. 10) might have set off something which, in turn, could mark the forthcoming elections, of course if Mr. Cosic, when he comes out of hospital, does not again check the hyperactive Panic.

Such a contract ought to suit the political group in the democratic center, and the federal leadership as well, which is currently enjoying popularity but has no power. It will be able to give the confused and disorganized public a clear answer to the question: "All right, what is it that you actually want?" Becoming part of the world again, Europeanization, modernization, an end to wartime politics, preserving the country's unity and opposing the Belgrade regime's separatism which is destroying the federation ...

The fact that the second meeting in the federal government building set up a political committee, a marketing committee and a committee for finance bespeaks that this cooperation between the federal government and the republican opposition might not be just part of the battle for favorable electoral conditions. Pressure is mutual. Mr. Panic is said to have asked everybody individually: "Are you for democracy?" and demanded that they appear as a coalition. On the other, opposition, side, one can hear open demands for Mr. Cosic and Mr. Panic not to be separated, in order to preserve what is called the "winning combination" wherein the coalition has some 40 percent of the electorate, that is a 55 percent parliamentary majority. Leon Kojen had made an estimate that the opposition bloc will hover around the 30 percent mark, and that a chance should be looked for among the undecided voters, whereas the Socialists, in coalition with Seselj, would have around 35 percent of the votes.

There seems to be hope of success also in the negotiations which the Vojvodina Reformists initiated in the past weeks, when consultations began on the minimum of concord between the parties of the democratic center, with the offer to set up an election alliance among DEPOS, a coalition with true democrats and the Civic Alliance, at a ratio of 55:35:10. Not counting the elections, such a proportion could otherwise result only from bare necessity, and with a great deal of friction. The negotiations are now moving toward a favorable close, and should also include an agreement on forming a joint government, within one coalition or a strong election alliance. Slobodan Rakitic and several other politicians said that a coalition could be maintained also with two election lists headed by Mr. Cosic and Mr. Panic, together or separately. This remains to be seen. The electoral system offers the possibility of forming local coalitions. It is probable, for example, that the Democratic Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (DZVM) and the Democratic Alliance of Vojvodina Croats (DZVH) will make such an arrangement in Vojvodina.

It is presumed that the elections could be postponed. After the second meeting of the Group for coordinating pre-election activities, Slobodan Rakitic did not deny the existence of different opinions in DEPOS, that the prevailing conviction was that the minimum requirements have not been met entirely, that the Yugoslav head of state will perhaps have to postpone the elections.

The federal electoral commission drew attention, at the beginning of last week, to the delay in preparing the elections. On Thursday, Yugoslav Parliament appointed the electoral commissions. The republican commission called on the citizens to check, in their respective municipalities, whether they are included in the voting rolls. The Vojvodina Parliament is scheduling the elections according to the majority system.

Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic visited an oil well that was discovered a long time ago (Serbian Television Director Vucelic call it "strategic") in order to pronounce what will probably be the ruling party's election slogan that Serbia will not freeze, be hungry or lose its dignity. Matija Beckovic had a very good comment for this visit: "Oil was found in Serbia last night, but for this to happen Serbia first had to be turned into a desert."

Mr. Cosic said that he will not run for any office. Some interpret this as his hope that he will induce Mr. Milosevic to abandon the race which Mr. Milosevic, if one is to judge by his present behavior, has no intention of doing. Certain details indicate that the 1990 presidential election farce could be repeated. It appears that Dr. Seselj is also getting ready to run for president.

Leon Kojen assessed that DEPOS has no presidential candidate and that Mr. Cosic alone can be nominated. If he refuses, the opposition will, if it wins a parliamentary majority, share power with Mr. Milosevic for some time. Part of the opposition expects Mr. Cosic to enter the election race with Mr. Milosevic, although for now he is not giving any signs of reaching such a decision. The Democrats keep repeating from the sides of their mouths that the opposition must have a presidential contender, but make it clear that they will not nominate one, for their own reasons. Five days later, Slobodan Rakitic said that these issues were not discussed either in DEPOS or in the Serbian Renewal Movement. It is hardly likely that DEPOS will play on the Draskovic card for its presidential contender.

On Monday (Nov. 9), Vuk Draskovic and Dragoljub Micunovic had a short meeting (this is always striking news) to determine the joint demands for freeing the media, rules which will eliminate any comments by journalists and editors, the representation of political parties according to the number of parliamentary candidates. The Democratic Party of Serbia and the Serbian Liberal Party then made conditional the media agreement on their participation in the elections.

In the Serbian Government, the media agreement was signed by the Socialist Party of Serbia, the Serbian Radical Party and 41 small parties. The Democratic Party left the "round table for two", reiterated its proposal on media conduct and, according to Zoran Djindjic, the Socialists (with which they negotiated bilaterally) informed them that same evening that they are conceding and will meet all their demands except the personal ones (read: the resignation of RTS Director Milorad Vucelic). DEPOS insists precisely on those "personal concessions", that is on the resignation of the RTS management. Vojislav Kostunica said: "That means nothing!" for the principle that "rules not people count".

By all accounts, DEPOS is still engrossed in the dilemma whether to say "yes" or still to play the elections boycott card. In an interview to the independent daily "Borba", Kostunica claimed that there were no major differences between SPO and the Democratic Party of Serbia in DEPOS, but that Draskovic is perhaps wrong in hurrying the debate on the electoral lists, because it may be an erroneous signal to the Socialists that the opposition has agreed to the elections. Vuk, again, is obviously in a hurry in order to see where he stands. Debates on whether or not to run in the elections are still open in DEPOS, and the November 5 decision "elections yes, under these conditions no" is still valid. The strongest member of this movement, Vuk Draskovic, has practically launched an election campaign in Serbia's south. His rally in Nis appeared somewhat modernized, with 50 percent less support to the customary iconography. All the reporters agreed that he emitted great energy. What of this energy will fall into the ballot boxes remains to be seen, but the two-year-old sorry history of the Serbian opposition has shown that elections are not won in the center of Belgrade.

With the SPO election slogan "With us there are no sanctions", Draskovic opposes the forecast that in the event that the regime does not change, Raska will go up in flames and so will Kosovo, while Montenegro will secede. He intimated to the electorate that at the next elections they will be choosing between life and death.

The bloody incidents in Pristina as well as the crisis in the negotiations with the ethnic Albanians find fertile soil in the ruling party, to stress their inflexibility in Kosovo. The ruling party also finds Ibrahim Rugova's statement that his party will boycott the elections quite favorable. He assessed that a change of regime in Serbia will not fundamentally change the position of Albanians in Yugoslavia, which means that he places Kosovo's status above all other political goals. Sulejman Ugljanin (Democratic Action Party - SDA - Sandzak) has calmed down after certain ultimatums.

The election campaign has been directed against Prime Minister Panic from the start, but his popularity in Belgrade is high, for now. A poll conducted by the renowned Belgrade-based Institute for Social Sciences, which correctly guessed last year the results of the elections, shows that his popularity rating is much higher than Mr. Milosevic's (41 percent were for Mr. Panic, 26 for Mr. Milosevic). Mr. Panic is in the lead among the intellectuals and the middle class, while the peasantry has more faith in Mr. Milosevic (34:26). Mr. Milosevic also has a similar rating among unqualified workers (34:28). If this advantage holds even after Belgrade Television's two-month-long campaign, the current Yugoslav prime minister will be yet another exception. Public opinion researcher Srbobran Brankovic showed a Belgrade Circle meeting last Saturday (Nov. 7) how the popularity of politicians suddenly drops when Belgrade Television zooms in against them. This was the case with Milan Babic and Ante Markovic, while on the other side is the example of Vojislav Seselj, whose popularity began to grow when Belgrade Television started to support him.

Even if it brings together its insoluble equations, the opposition will not find it easy to realize its winning combination. Official propaganda is satanizing Prime Minister Panic more and more with every passing hour, feeling that he is the symbolic leader of the turn, modernism and the pro-European orientation. It is not very likely that the campaign will stop even if and when the rules of media conduct during the election campaign are adopted. Serbian Prime Minister Bozovic (whose invitation to a tete-a-tete Mr. Panic turned down on the grounds that he will not discuss socialist economy) has accused the federal prime minister of nothing less than himself being the one who imposed the sanctions and who is quite knowledgeable in the field of tax evasion.

With Mr. Panic in the lead, the Democratic Coalition will have to run a fierce election campaign against the Socialists. On the other side, Mr. Cosic, if he leads the list, will not be happy if the opposition focuses solely on Mr. Milosevic's transgressions and his main sin - the policy of war. He is obviously trying to give up this policy but, for reasons which may be considered state, or personal, he wishes to give it up quietly.