The Coupling Of Interests

In expectation of how individual states will apply the latest UN Security Council decisions, which envisage the strict control of the economic embargo against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, the director of the Kragujevac-based "Zastava" automobile manufacturing plant said: "Zastava" has a new production program, from furniture iron-work to bathroom facilities. This long standing director general said that flexibility was a characteristic of companies in developed countries. This business vitality, if one is to be honest, is the result of necessity, because this manufacturer is unable to assemble automobiles due to a lack of parts. However, this does not change the fact that this Bozovic factory is turning toward profit as the ultimate business motive.

One who is not knowledgeable in Yugoslav circumstances might think that all this had to do with following world trends, because the world's automobile manufacturing giants are threatened by another crisis. Sales in Japan this year fell by some 5 percent, while in America at least three million automobiles less will be sold this year than six years ago. However, unlike Kragujevac, world manufacturers are looking to save in advanced technologies, and experts assess that a breakthrough on new markets will be possible only in cooperation with domestic automobile manufacturers. Where there are any.

Of course, every reasonable person cannot have anything against the efforts of this or that plant to survive the present cataclysm. Only, it is not done to present such efforts as the result of the profit motive. At almost the same time in Belgrade, metalworkers began rubbing their hands, because they received, under pressure from the Serbian Government, funds from the National Bank of Yugoslavia. They say that it is better to produce for the warehouses than to receive wages from the state for doing nothing. Nevertheless, the case of "Zastava" in Kragujevac is good illustration of another, incomparably more important issue, or rather dilemma on whether the collapse of the Serbian economy began after the international community imposed sanctions last summer. One must recall that "Zastava" was unable to work in normal conditions ever since the process of the disintegration of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began. "Zastava" Director General Rodoljub Micic knew that this was inevitable when he endeavored, together with a group of reasonable Serbian businessmen, to avoid Serbian President Milosevic's economic blockade of Slovenia. The story of "Zastava" ended that day when Serbian Prime Minister Radoman Bozovic, instead of "Fiat", arrived in Kragujevac. This was before the sanctions.

What do businessmen forecast now? "Vreme" asked. The answers received were almost identical: The Serbian economy started to deteriorate before the sanctions, the process was accelerated with the embargo, and now a headlong plunge is in the offing. It is true that none of those asked believes in a control so tight that nothing and nobody can get through. All of Serbia's neighbors were involved in violating the embargo to date, major business deals were made with not only West European, but also American and Japanese, companies. Naturally, to a much lesser extent than before the blockade. One domestic manufacturer said: "Five truckloads of goods used to leave our plant for destinations world-wide before, now there is only one every month". Of course, the blockade's breakthrough was not a result of "a breakthrough of the truth about Serbia to the world", but the result of interest shown by certain foreign partners. Such interests exist momentarily, and seemingly in the long run, on the Serbian side as well. For example, a company from a country, whose politicians keep accusing Belgrade loudly and constantly, has continued to work with its partner in Serbia, only now it is paying one fifth of the price for the same service it received before the blockade. The director is resigned. He says that at least something is better than nothing. Worst of all, this businessman is aware that, when the embargo is lifted, he will have to be content when his foreign partner doubles the present rate; he will be left only with the memory of how once, long ago, before the war and wartime politics, he used to get five times more ...

In other words, the disaster's real proportions will become obvious after everything settles down and when the Serbian businessman, in his renewed contacts with foreign partners, realizes how much his work has devalued. Young people know this already, and do not consent to endure. This is deduced from a shocking poll of Belgrade University students: Of the future chemical engineers polled, 96 percent (!) said that the moment they receive their diploma, they will leave this country and that not even the former ideal called a job and apartment will be able to keep them here.

Again, the coupling of interests between the regime here and foreign capital is at work. The former do not need financially independent people who think for themselves, while employers abroad will be getting experts free of charge who are at the beginning of the most productive period in their working life. It is to be understood that the authorities at home are not alone, they know how to reward the suitable and obedient. Those who are interested in the work of the Belgrade stock market have noticed how Dafiment Bank's capital reserves increase with each passing day, which means that the bank's total capital is also growing, and draw attention to the fact that at the same time a considerable amount of multi-purpose M 1 was put out on the market. The Serbian leadership undoubtedly knows that much of banking to realize how money is channeled here; certainly not by the usual mechanisms, because there are none here, and neither is there any money in real terms.

It remains unknown how the neighbors of Serbia and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia will behave after the latest UN Security Council Resolution. It is understood that all will promise publicly to fully respect the new regime of control. However, it is clear that illicit deals bring enormous profits, and there are lasting interests at stake. For example, last summer the Macedonian authorities calculated that by strictly respecting the blockade, the Macedonian economy would lose 1.3 billion dollars a year, but that the damage in the longer run would be incomparably greater, because it would mean breaking off virtually all ties with the Serbian economy to which the Macedonian side is now oriented with more than a half of its business activities. Washington has been informed of this viewpoint.

The (slight and only) trouble is that it has no partner in Belgrade with whom to share such opinions and talks. In official Belgrade.