Election Panic

The Republican Election Committee turned down Milan Panic's candidacy for the office of president of the republic on Thursday, December 3. On the same day we were informed that a new US satellite had been located above the country, that the rate of the Deutschmark was unchanged and that no one had resigned from the Federal Government.

There was that well known "pre-war" smell in Belgrade. Entire streets had been deleted from the electoral lists. Even the most naive finally understood that the authorities had no intention of stepping down and that they would not tolerate serious competition. When asked by a reporter "are you aware of the political importance in deciding to turn down Panic's candidacy?", President of the Republican Election Committee Caslav Ignjatovic came close to being witty when he said, "It was not the first time that we were working under pressure, but we stuck to the law." "The elections have been brought into question," said President of the Democratic Party Executive Board Zoran Djindjic. The same stand was reiterated by Ivan Kovacevic (Serbian Renewal Movement), Cedomir Mirkovic (Social Democratic Party), Vesna Pesic (Civic Alliance)... Soon after this, DEPOS announced a meeting of all democratically oriented parties, a meeting which would reconsider the decision to participate in the elections.

Panic seemed to be the least disturbed by the whole matter on Thursday. Only a few hours after the announcement of the Election Committee's decision, Panic said on ITV Studio B that he would certainly be a presidential candidate and that he would win. Moreover, he was very convincing. People phoned in to say that they would vote for him. As if Milosevic had nothing to do with the matter.

The "Stop Panic" plan was upheld by a surprise announcement made by the so far little noticed Defence Minister's Collegium, which accused the Defence Minister (Panic) of partisanship and demanded that he freeze his ministerial post. That matters were coming to a head, was borne out by the fact that a few hours before the Election Committee's announcement, Slobodan Milosevic met with some of the most powerful Serbian jurists in order to discuss all options which could arise in the event that Panic lodged a complaint.

It is indicative that after the announcement of its decision, the Election Committee made Panic a recommendation to file a complaint with the Serbian Supreme Court which is headed by that same Caslav Ignjatovic who headed the Election Committee. "The problem lies in the fact," said Zoran Djindjic earlier, "that the opposition spends fifteen minutes each day trying to figure out how to get the better of Milosevic, while Milosevic spends fifteen hours doing the same with the opposition in mind." When one thinks about it all, this does seem true.

The only person who remained silent that Thursday, and whom all wished to hear, was Dobrica Cosic, President of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Those who do not trust him too much, said "he's wisely keeping quiet again," while Cosic's advisors said that the "President was studying the situation," and that he was gathering all "relevant facts." According to them, Cosic was mostly interested in the reactions of parties.

However, something was learned about Cosic. Primarily that he knew that Panic would put up his candidacy; reliable sources claim that he was aware of it when he gave the interview to the Belgrade daily "Politika" and clearly distanced himself from Milosevic's policy. Those who look on that interview as a preparing of the ground for Panic's candidacy, will certainly be confused by the following information: immediately after the Prime Minister's inclusion in the election campaign, Cosic and his associates backed out from the broadcasting of a prepared spot showing Cosic and Panic with arms raised, calling on the people to go and vote.

Cosic's advisors later said that he viewed Panic's taking on of Milosevic as "freedom of will," in other words, he was not opposed to it. In spite of this, Panic's campaign team designated Ljubisa Rakic as the man who must persuade Cosic to make his "I am not opposed" stand public.

Before Thursday Panic had tried to convince another politician, Vuk Draskovic, to a joint action. It all boiled down to proposing that Draskovic withdraw his presidential candidacy before the announcement of the Election Committee's final decision, thus bringing the presidential election into question. This proposal seems to have fallen through, and Panic announced that he would file a complaint with the Serbian Constitutional Court, with the intention of challenging the constitutionality of the Election Law.

Panic also made a statement ending with the words, "I will not accept this slap in the face of democracy." Unfortunately, apart from the Prime Minister's optimism and success in the polls, it seemed that there was nothing more that he could do.

Of all those surrounding the Prime Minister, Miodrag Perisic was the first to realize this. Asked earlier about Panic's chances to run for president, the Federal Information Minister had said "No chance," according to VREME's sources.

Reflections on Milosevic's "No" were all that brought a breath of optimism on Thursday. This was the beginning of speculations on what the Federal Prime Minister could do. The majority of public opinion polls show that, in spite of the anti-Panic TV campaign, many expect that the Federal Prime Minister will put a spoke in Milosevic's wheel before December 20.

These speculations were enough for practically the whole opposition to cry on Thursday, "Milosevic is afraid." Panic also took up the cry. His campaign team told VREME that they were seriously planning to win three times as many votes as Milosevic.

If these calculations are correct, then Milosevic seems to have chickened out overnight, since young Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) member Ivica Dacic confidently told Politika's English-language International Weekly: "Our party is not opposed to Panic's candidacy. We want him to run, because elections will really show the support his policy enjoys."

After Panic's appearance on Studio B, which, according to viewers, "inspired optimism," only one question remained: what could, eventually, and at the very last moment, change the Serbian President's firm decision?

Certainly not just Panic. "He has a helmsman in Washington," said Milosevic last month, showing his dislike of Panic. Panic, on the other hand, seems to have taken the advice given to him by Vuk Draskovic during one of their secret meetings at the beginning of his mandate: "Get him before he gets you."

Looking back, the opposition's chances seem better. The President of all Serbs has given in to their demands several times, even though it will never be clear if he did so for tactical reasons, or because he really feared his domestic political opponents.

Panic is probably counting on pressure which could be exerted on Milosevic by the West, but this remains doubtful, at least where Panic's pleas so far are concerned. This has led skeptics to claim that Milosevic is the only man the West upholds here.

All in all, Milosevic will once again make the decisions on his own, and we can only guess at the reasons for his final stand. It will not be at all unusual if he either allows Panic to run, or if he does not. It has always been so with Milosevic. We are not surprised; sometimes he irritates us, and sometimes, as on Thursday, he seems too strong.

It was still possible to believe on Tuesday that Panic would make it. Micunovic (Democratic Party) explained that Panic suited Milosevic as a rival. "In that case he can once again play the card of patriot versus non-patriot, and by hitting at Panic, hit out against the whole opposition."

Micunovic's thesis is in accordance with what had been claimed much earlier by Srbobran Brankovic of the Institute for Political Studies: "The people are dough, which a month-long TV campaign can knead to anything you want." In other words, all believed that Milosevic would let Panic run and then massacre him via television.

Views did not vary much on what will happen if the Serbian President does what he later did. Micunovic forecast a political crisis and brought into question the presidential elections. He believed in his friend Cosic, saying: "Even when I don't get all I expected, it is not politically wise to take and reject all. Cosic has clearly distanced himself from Milosevic. That is not a little."

A former official in Micunovic's party and now President of the Serbian Democratic Party Vojislav Kostunica said that the eventual rejection of Panic's candidacy could be used for the provoking of a constitutional crisis and the bringing into question of all elections, "in a package." Asked how many people would take to the streets in support of Panic, Kostunica did not reply. He said clearly, however, that the plan required the unity and decisiveness of the opposition and the support of Dobrica Cosic. "His stand is relevant to this, because in these spaces Dobrica Cosic's silence can easily be presented and understood as an approval of Milosevic's moves."

Before these two, Vuk Draskovic told a press conference what he would do. Judging by his gallant statement that he would withdraw his candidacy "if Panic's nomination is approved," Draskovic seems to have believed that Panic would be allowed to run in the elections.

The more cautious warned that the opposition truly needed Panic, as all they could expect was Milosevic's compassion or brutality with regard to Panic's nomination. According to this thesis, the Federal Prime Minister would be the last factor in the uniting of a split opposition. It was equally in the interests of Micunovic, Draskovic, Kostunica and Pesic, for the simple reason that none of them came up with the idea, and so would not quarrel over it. Along with other problems, Panic's documents, which he and many others believed proved that he had been in Serbia for over a year, finally arrived at the Republican Election Committee.

The opposition was speedily making lists for republican elections, and Micunovic said: "The basic logical rule is that who goes up can also go down. If this holds for the Federal Prime Minister, then it is also true for the republican president." Kostunica: "The law is unconstitutional. The Serbian presidential function is the only one with some limits. People with criminal dossiers can run for deputies." No one gave any thought at that moment as to what Milosevic was doing. He seemed unimportant.

In the evening, Panic was a guest of the Faculty of Philosophy. A young DEPOS member claimed that there would be demonstrations if Panic did not run in the presidential race. Panic's reply was swift and short - he talked of "the future" and "a change of the system."

There were too few pessimists to spoil the general impression. Once again Panic convinced his audience that he both wants and can. Had they known what lay in store, most of them would have preferred to skip Thursday.