Ahead of the Second Round

Even though he has lost illusions gained by the broad support given to him by the public in October, Milan Panic is successfully competing with Slobodan Milosevic, whose level of support is greater than it was a month ago. At the start of the campaign, the opposition parties won a little over 10% new votes, as many as the Socialists and Radicals together.

Late November and early December were a period of accelerated identification between voters and parties and of the electorate's commitment. This is the most important conclusion resulting from two of the most recent surveys undertaken by the Belgrade Institute of Social Sciences.

There were 31% undecided and 21% of those who said they would not vote in October. This is the same level of undecided as in March 1992, when 50% of the voters were abstaining. In the meantime, the number of undecided dropped to 22% in November, i.e. to 24% in December. In early December 9% said that they would not vote, which is more than a double reduction of abstainers. The majority of those surveyed who favored a party or presidential candidate said that their choice was definite. There will be few changes, and the campaign continues to be fought for the undecided votes.

The question: "What party will you vote for?" gave the following results: in December the Radical-Socialist coalition received 34% votes, but it must be borne in mind that the Radicals and Socialist probably have a significant advantage in the Pristina electoral unit, which was not surveyed, while the Democratic coalition DEPOS and some other parties (if they remain in the game) gained 30%-33% votes.

In October the Socialists had 20% of potential voters, while the number grew in late November to 25%, and in early December stood at 26%. They have an exceptionally high percentage in Leskovac - 43.8%, compared to DEPOS 20.8%, even though this percentage must be taken with caution, because the Leskovac electoral district includes a part of Kosovo, where the survey was not conducted. The Socialists also led in the November survey in Leskovac with 32.2%. They had a high lead in Smederevo - 30.4% (DEPOS 18.3 %) and in Zrenjanin 25% (DEPOS 18%). In the other towns their advantage is not so great - they lead in Novi Sad by 3.5%, and in Uzice by 3.2%.

The Serbian Radical Party jumped from 5% in October to 9% in November, and in early December to 10%.

In October DEPOS had around 14% votes, in late November 20% and in early December 22.5%. The November and December surveys suggest that DEPOS could win in Belgrade with 32.7% votes (Socialists 18.1%). The December survey also gives them an advantage in Kragujevac, where they could win 22% of the votes (Socialists 20.6%).

In October the Democratic Party had 6% votes, in November and December around 8%, with their strongest base in Belgrade (12.6%), Nis (10%) and in Novi Sad (8.3%).

In October 2.9% of those surveyed opted for the remaining parties, in December 3.9%. The rating of the "other parties" is greatest in Novi Sad (10%), in Zrenjanin (5.4%) and in Kragujevac (4.3%).

The overall data point to a better rating for the opposition. The question: "Which party will you not vote for?", yielded the following information: in December, 26.4% said - SPS, which is the same level as in October (27.3%), while 15% said the Serbian Radical Party (in October 17.3%). In December 25.2% voters said they would not vote for DEPOS, which is an improvement for this group, considering that in October 45.5% voters said they would not vote for DEPOS. The Democrats continue to be the least unacceptable party with (0.9% negative votes); they obviously stand a chance as the "other party," but have not so far repeated last year's campaign success, during which they won 3/4 of their votes. Judging by one commercial question, their slogans and visual image leave the most favorable impression among the electorate.

Researchers conclude that public opinion has positive expectations concerning the opposition's victory: a total of 46.2% of those surveyed believe that the opposition's victory will bring positive changes, which is confirmed by the fact that at the same time 45.5% of those surveyed say that a SPS victory would result in negative changes. The other votes are dispersed among the undecided and those who believe that there will not be any changes, no matter who wins.

A tendency towards changes can be seen in the views of those surveyed with regard to Slobodan Milosevic being relieved from office. Forty seven percent of those surveyed want him relieved, while a third wants him re-elected.

Compared to Milosevic's policies, voters continue to give an advantage to those proposed by Panic. The ratio is now less unfavorable for the Serbian leadership, and a growing number of voters once more give national politics a high place. Regarding the economy, Panic's approach is approved by 53% voters, and Milosevic's by 28%. As far as sanctions are concerned, 53% favor Panic and 20% Milosevic; on bringing the war to an end 40% support Panic and 30% Milosevic. Compared to Panic, Milosevic leads only over the so called national question (51:28 in Milosevic's favor). Viewed generally, in October, 41% of those surveyed gave an advantage to the Federal Government's policies and 33% to the Republican policies; the federal leadership is now upheld by 38%, and the Serbian by 36% voters.

Measured by an index which combines the answers given to 14 questions linked to individual segments of Milosevic's and Panic's policies, regarding personality assessments etc., 43.4% voters have confidence in Panic, and 40.3% in Milosevic.

The researchers have asked journalists not to interpret the present ratings as the voters final decisions, but as a reflection of the general stand. On the other hand, Dragomir Pantic says that he has concluded through a complex analysis of many variables, that for the prognosis of overall election results the best predictor is the stand towards the two main contestants in the election campaign, Panic and Milosevic.

Milosevic enjoys the support of over half the peasantry, the unskilled workers and pensioners, mostly the elderly. Panic, on the other hand, has the support of 2/3 of the student body, 4/5 of the self-employed, 2/3 of the experts, 60% of the unemployed, i.e. a great majority of the young.

The question: "If you had the chance to vote for Prime Minister Panic or for President Milosevic, who would you vote for?" gave the following results. In October, 42.6% of the answers were in Panic's favor, now he has 38.1%, while Milosevic has jumped from 25.5% in October, to 36.2%.

This time the researchers have not published the results of answers to the question: "Which of the presidential candidates will you vote for?" because the status of the presidential candidates was not equal at the time when the survey was being conducted. The electorate has concentrated on these two presidential candidates, while the others will win between 2.5%-5% votes. Judging by answers given to this simple question, which is what the whole thing will boil down to, Panic led in all districts in October, except in Smederevo and Nis.

Measured by more complicated indicators (the 14 mentioned questions) in December, Panic leads in Belgrade (57:29), in Novi Sad (52:34); while Milosevic leads in Banat (53:33), Leskovac (48:35), Smederevo (45:36), while there is a draw in Kragujevac (40:40), Nis (36:36) and Uzice (46:46).

If answers to this question reflect public opinion, developments are not wholly to Panic's advantage, but they give hope. Panic spent last week in salvaging the damage suffered by his government after the Socialists provoked a crisis for the purposes of their election campaign. Panic has managed to take the blows standing up and stay afloat. Researchers at the Institute for Social Studies are skeptical and refrain from making conclusions. They are waiting for the results of new surveys which will be conducted on December 12. They say that a part of the decisions will be made according to "situational reactions" among the electorate in the following period, and repeat that 10% of the voters decide on election day.

The index of presidential candidates, according to party orientation, shows that the SPS is Milosevic's main electoral base (91% Socialists will vote for Milosevic). Prime Minister Panic's main electoral base is DEPOS (93% DEPOS members will vote for Panic), which cannot be seen all that clearly from relationships among DEPOS leaders and Panic. On the other hand, it is somewhat surprising that the degree of support given to Panic by the Democrats (68%) is rather lower, and equal to that given to Milosevic by the Serbian Radicals (67%).

There is an indicator which shows how the current political controversies and beginning of the campaign in November 1992 have reflected on the politician's ratings.

Dobrica Cosic, in October, had 83% positive and 9% negative assessments, now he has 70% positive and 8% negative, which can be described as a mild drop in reputation.

Milan Panic now has 45% positive points compared to October's 76%, while his October 16% negative assessments have gone up to 38%. October's broad-based but weak support has changed insomuch as the general public has started perceiving him as a potential candidate at the elections, and this has given rise to controversies. Other indicators say that his ratings have suffered because of the campaign conducted against him. The fact that several of his ministers resigned from his government was a hard blow, but one he managed to survive.

Slobodan Milosevic has lost a part of the support he enjoyed, October's positive 50% have dropped to 46%, while October's negative 42% dropped to 40% in December. This means that the number of those who openly dispute him has grown a little.

Vojislav Seselj had 34% positive marks in October and in November, and 38% in early December. His negative 56% points have dropped to 46%.

Dragoljub Micunovic has remained at the same percentage of 33 positive marks, and his negative 51% have dropped to 30%.

Vojislav Kostunica has increased the number of those who think favorably of him from 30% to 31% and has greatly decreased his negative percentage from 41% to 27%.

Vuk Draskovic showed a positive percentage increase from 21 to 22, and a decrease of the negative percentage from 67 to 58.

It is an interesting point that in answer to the question: "Who will win?", the majority of those surveyed said that Milosevic would win. Ljiljana Bacevic interprets this by the fact that either the majority want Milosevic to remain President in spite of the fact that they feel this would not be a good thing, or they believe that the elections will not be honest, or that is the way in which they perceive the mood of their fellow-citizens. Drago Pantic says that "Milosevic's victory is expected by a third of the electorate which will vote for him, and by a part of the voters from other parties who will obviously not vote for him. On the one hand, we have what the voters wish for, and on the other their fear that the candidate they do not want might win. This is a partial picture of both the concern and belief that Milosevic will not have a real counter-candidate in the race for the presidential post."

Many dilemmas will be cleared up over the next few days. Judging by this survey, the results of parliamentary elections point to a draw. In the presidential game, the winning goal might be given in the extra time.