People - Another Double Here!

On Wednesday, the black money market in Belgrade reacted unexpectedly for the first time. Namely, the official acceptance of Milan Panic's candidacy for president of Serbia would have, in normal circumstances, at least stabilized the black market exchange rate, but, in only one day, the dinar dropped by 10 to 15 percent. One can only guess whether the link between the street dealers and the authority's representatives is so strong and multifold that one should seek a reliable forecast of the outcome of the elections in the street. There is one more thing. On that same day, a Belgrade buyer of the automobile produced in Kragujevac, or better to say a man who paid a little over 14,000 DEM last April for a "Lada Samara" got a telegram from the seller saying more or less this: come tomorrow to Kragujevac to take over two incomplete "Yugo 45s" instead of the car you paid for - stop - if you don't want to, we will return your payment in dinars - stop - if you want to, bring money for additional payment because the cars we are offering have luxurious equipment - stop - find transport for the cars because they do not have alternators... One can stop to think about the arrogance of businessmen who were pushed into trouble because of someone else's fault, but also because of their own servileness, although this is a topic for more peaceful times. Now, at the right moment, the telegram from Kragujevac warns about the fact that the current authorities have several masks and that they will all fall down after the elections. The offers being made to voters are such and so numerous that they bring out a sneer, but they also point to the fact that those who promised a policy of peace, progress and prosperity feel much more unsure than two years ago. And therefore, perhaps, all the more dangerous. It is impossible, or pointless, to arrange according to importance the pile of promises without backing and to discuss the causes and consequences of everything the official authorities are offering. For example, no one serious believed that the November inflation was around 33 percent. Even the first man at the republican statistics bureau, after giving an explanation of how this is possible, retained part of his professional conscience forecasting that the December inflation would be much higher. But this will be made public after the elections. Meanwhile, in the midst of the battle for votes, there came the information that pensions would be paid out in a day or two and that they would be higher by almost 25 percent above the growth of official inflation. Why? Radoman Bozovic's government last week concluded, in the literal sense of the word, that the rent, electricity and other bills do not have t be paid before the 20th in the month /only in December?/ and that this prolongation of paying bills will not be burdened by interests. The explanation is interesting: Radoman Bozovic's government cares about the people, so that since their pensions and salaries do not come in time or because they cannot get them out of banks, they are allowed to take advantage of what is officially called galloping inflation, but which is, in fact, hyper-inflation. Thus Radoman Bozovic's ministers are becoming accomplices in and the co-culprits for at least the following: because of their incapability they are punishing someone else. They have squandered the resources of the pension fund, like many others, and are now transferring the load onto the electric power industry and the housing fund. The latter are silent; those in charge refuse to say publicly how much this costs them, while the public is hearing information that the housing department, the waterworks and sewers, the electric power industry - and other, fortunately state-owned firms of Bozovic's government, have not received an official notice about the deadline for payments being moved to the 20th of the month. In other words, when the elections pass, the promises will also be forgotten, and the people will not only have to pay interests on the /un/allowed belatedness, but they will also have to pay higher bills in order for everything that was lost in the election campaign, conducted in the style of the Socialist Party of Serbia, to be made up for. Meanwhile, serious and moral economists are measuring whether the new Yugoslavs will be, in January, at the level of one fifth or a little above a quarter of the annual national income per capita. In the first case, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia will already be in the category of poor world countries, while in the second, it will wait a few months before it reaches poor Africa. Of course, all this on condition that the pre-election promises meet with a sufficient response. The first commentary in the latest issue of the "Review of Economic Affairs" intimates that the authorities are being shaken more seriously that it seems. Namely, associations of Radoman Bozovic's government, in this case chambers of commerce, are sending questionnaires to firms which must be answered until December 20th at the latest. There are three questions. First, what are the new production programs. Second, which new programs substitute for what used to come from former Yugoslav republics. Third, which imported raw material and production materials or those from former Yugoslav republics have been substituted. Djorjde Romoda, the director of the "Iskra" factory in Kula gave really historical answers: "At the moment we are working on the following new programs: extremely complex electronic components /high-tech/, then multi-purpose aircraft, a plane-helicopter with a turbo jet engine, and finally passenger cars with a three-cycle turbo jet engine". Domestic raw material has been ensured /the entire agrarian sector and oil derivatives from the Turija-Sever oil field/, so that the conclusion is logical: "As one can see from our answers, we have been resisting very successfully the consequences of the unjustly imposed sanctions and as far as we are concerned, we will continue developing new products, and they can freely continue to tighten the sanctions. We need neither them, nor their market, nor their raw material. We are absolutely aware of the fact that we must work as we should and this is exactly what we are doing". If someone thinks that this should be explained and that we must get serious, he can get information about the situation in the Vojvodina metal industry from that same chamber which signs Bozovic's letters of successful survival. Because of the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the loss of foreign buyers the Vojvodina metal complex is using only 20 to 30 percent of its installed facilities. Of course, the most capable ones are the hardest hit: they are at a standstill. They don't get credits out of the central bank's money like their colleagues in Rakovica. They have probably been assessed as unreliable voters /this group includes many factories in which most of the employees are of Hungarian nationality/. But to what use is seriousness and arguments? Despite everything, Bozovic says that Serbia is not printing money without backing - but only as much as is necessary for preserving Serbia's natural potentials and for purposes which have backing in production! Even if he retains some kind of truncated power, a long political career does not lie ahead of Slobodan Milosevic.