What Awaits the Winner

"Whoever wins will have to deal with chaos", claimed "VREME's" interviewees two years ago on the eve of the December 1990 elections, when asked the question: What awaits the winner. The forecast about having "to deal with chaos" meant everything on which one could recognize the "fingerprints" of the old authorities, and which was part of the political, economic and legal "dowry" for the potentially new power-holders which were to be inaugurated by the first post-war multi-party elections in Serbia.

Such gloomy forecasts were made at a time when we were still quite far from what Serbian patriarch Pavle recently described by saying "the Devil would also be ashamed of us". That was the time when Yugoslavia still existed and when it could have been saved, when one could still not notice war arrhythmias on political cardiograms, when the international community was expressing readiness to offer financial assistance... We were offered the status of an associate member of the Council of Europe and there were intimations of the first more concrete agreements with the European Community. Salaries were around 1500 DEM. Looking from the standpoint of today's prospects, which condemn and humiliate, the then state, which two years ago we called a "legal jungle", now looks like a real "botanic garden", while the veil that the television used to put over the people's eyes then, today seems like the synonym of objectivity and a professional attitude, compared to the present brutality and ruthlessness of Television Serbia.

VREME posed the same question - what awaits the winner - to the same interviewees pending this week's elections in Serbia. Unlike at the time of the last elections, when most of our collocutors spoke about the tasks of the potential winner in general terms, this time the answers were much more concrete. "The difference is enormous", said Dusan Janjic, sociologist at the Belgrade Institute of Social Studies. "One can no longer speak about some imaginary winner. It is very clear today what a new victory of Slobodan Milosevic would mean, and what the victory of his political opponents would bring. At the previous elections many voted on the basis of superficial information and could later say that, in fact, they did not know what they were voting for. Serbia is entering these elections with full responsibility. Tomorrow, no one will have the right to say that he was manipulated. There is no more hiding, everyone has an identity. Tomorrow, no one will have the right to say that he didn't know that voting for the socialists really meant "you have voted, now you can starve" or "you have voted, now go to war".

Two years ago, Janjic advocated the thesis that, in the first months of his rule, the winner will have to confirm himself as the real power-holder. To the first challenge of this kind the ruling party responded by activating the means of a civil war. The potentials of the civil war have not been exhausted in the meantime. On the contrary, they have been augmented by the break-up of the Serbian political body into two strong and opposed blocs. According to Janjic, one consists of the ruling part and its apparatus of power, the police and the people who are holding onto their positions in the economy through the party. This bloc has lately been reinforced by many war profiteers, criminals and those who have their hands so deep in the war that they have no other way but to continue. On the other side is the bloc consisting of the so called democratic opposition. The division between these two blocs is so sharp today that a political and even armed conflict can always be provoked on edge of it. This could be contributed to by various irregularities at the elections or the total marginalization of minorities, which make 40% of the population of Serbia. "If Milosevic's option wins, this will, in fact, be a Pyrrhic victory", Janjic said. "The ruling apparatus will have a much thinner voting support than before. The regime could no longer defend itself through the constant export of a civil war. It could try to transfer the crisis spots to Serbia. Such an outcome would imply that Serbia has lost these elections. The fate of the Serbian-Montenegrin integration would also be brought into question. In case the other bloc wins, the rejoicing in victory would not last long. A number of questions will immediately open up before the winner: how to reconcile the torn up political electorate in Serbia, how to channel the course of the spreading of crime, how to influence the formation of a middle class, which is for democracy and against violence and dictatorship. All this cannot be done without an exceptional concentration of the new authorities' political will and the support of a truly professional and independent army. All this cannot be gained through these elections. The best way for this change to be made is the modifications of the Constitution, the abolition of the current presidential system in Serbia and the reconstruction of the federal state. It is on the issue of transferring power and making the president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Dobrica Cosic a strong figure of authority. If it wins, this bloc could face the risk of being divided up into a national and a civil wing. If national homogenization starts once again, there will be no return to Europe for Serbia. The best epilogue would be the creation of such an atmosphere that would lead to the easing of international pressure and sanctions, and to the reduction of the war investments. In such an atmosphere, the winner would buy time and create the spiritual, social, political and psychological space for change and for maintaining some kind of stability of parliamentary life", said Janjic.

Bora Kuzmanovic, professor of social psychology at the Faculty of Philosophy in Belgrade, envisages that, after the elections, a conflict between opposition parties of the civil, national and royalist orientations could easily break out. The existing differences between them have been pushed aside for the moment. What will really happen will depend on the outcome of the elections. "If Milosevic stays and the Socialist Party of Serbia continues to rule, all the difficulties we are now facing will remain, with a good chance of a tragic ending", said Kuzmanovic. "I don't think that the pressure from abroad is an adequate measure. It can have a counter effect and even help Milosevic win again. His victory would make Serbia's negotiating position in the world more difficult. While he is in power, we actually don't know whom that pressure is aimed against - his regime or the entire Serbian nation. Many will see the pressure as being unjustified and will decide to take part in the resistance. If, however, the regime changes and the pressure continues, we will know that it is a broader form of pressure on the people. New people offer new opportunities in negotiations." Kuzmanovic considers the departure of the ruling politicians to be extremely important for the awakening of a "new optimism". In that event, an economic recovery would be certain. That would have an impact on the psychological mood: people would get rid of the present fears, apathy and depression. "Two years ago I considered crazy anyone who took part in the elections, since the position of the winner conditioned the role of the loser", said Kuzmanovic. "I don't think that today. Milosevic's victory is just a new postponement of his defeat and every postponement leads to risks and even possible tragic endings. In the event of Milosevic' victory, the president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Dobrica Cosic would probably withdraw, which would be the end of Yugoslavia. I don't believe Montenegro would be willing to go on suffering because of someone else's mistakes. Even a stale-mate position, if Milosevic wins and the Socialist Party of Serbia loses, would lead to the prolongation of instability". Kuzmanovic considers there has already been some change at a psychological level. For instance, the Serbs no longer delude themselves with the idea of being a "celestial nation". Even the initiators of such a project have realized that they had gone too far. Two years ago, Vladan Vasilijevic, scientific advisor at the Belgrade Institute for Criminological and Sociological Research, told VREME that the future winner of the elections must first of all learn what a state governed by law is. On the eve of the new elections we can hardly say that there exists a state here. Furthermore, there can be no word of lawfulness and legal order. Everything has been replaced by absolute chaos. The stronger and the more dexterous reigns: above all war profiteers and criminals, whose number is constantly increasing. Describing such an atmosphere of general unlawfulness, Charles Lane of "Newsweek" wrote at the beginning of last week in the "Wall Street Journal" that "Belgrade has become a Palermo on the Danube", obviously alluding to our capital's growing reputation as a Mafia center. "The UN sanctions and the shortage of certain goods and fuel have led to social pathology and the worst forms of crime", said Vasilijevic. "Two years ago, we were faced with a sudden expansion of organized crime in some of its classical forms and sudden increase in violence. Today, however, this country's top establishment is involved in crime. You could even say that this fictitious state is one of the leading criminals. Various people act within its framework - war profiteers rallied around banks which do business without respecting the laws of economy; smugglers who in these times of war established a firm position on the market - by plundering. These phenomena are contrary to the interests of any serious state. Those who should be held accountable for it are becoming reputable citizens and are even getting a chance to acquire immunity as MPs. The judicial authorities, which should guarantee the functioning of the state, are also in a state of total collapse. This was contributed to by the recent reelection of judges, which has once again made the court and judges fully dependent on the will of the ruling party. Despite the present state of crime, there are currently no serious court procedures for abuse of embezzlement, nor are people who stained their hands with blood, for which there exists obvious evidence, being summoned to court. The most difficult task of the winner of the elections is to break up the criminal substratum of the present authorities. There can be no prevention of crime without a change of the system," claims Vasilijevic. Asked two years ago to answer the question - what awaits the winner of the elections in the sphere of international politics - Radoslav Stojanovic, professor at the Belgrade Faculty of Law, claimed that Serbia must know that there are no eternal enemies or eternal allies. "Serbia must renew ties with its old allies, but it must be aware of the fact that allies are chosen according to interests and not myths". Today, Stojanovic says that, unfortunately, the December '90 elections were won by the party whose program resulted in the break-up of Yugoslavia and the creation of Serbia within the "Karlobag... Virovitica" boundaries. Two years ago, the Serbian government started arming the Serbs in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia, thus opting for a war resolution of the Yugoslav crisis. It consequently attracted the anger of the international community." The authorities in Serbia, added Stojanovic, could not realize the simple fact that, within the framework of the international community, the self-determination of the Serbian people could not be achieved by force. Hence, we are today faced with the UN sanctions and the possibility of being attacked by all the big powers. The Serbian authorities abandoned the axiom of foreign policy set way back in 1841 by Ilija Garasanin: 'Serbia must (...) place itself among other European countries (...). If Serbia does not resolutely follow this policy, and even worse, if is abandons it, and does not draw up a precise plan for carrying out this task, it will, like a small boat, be thrown left and right by foreign storms until it finally hits a big rock and breaks apart...' "I quoted this two years ago in an interview to VREME and I am repeating it today", said Stojanovic, adding the conviction that a victory of the Socialist Party at the upcoming elections would also create the possibility of Serbia really being "broken apart" by the rock of a military intervention.

Those who left the country over the past two years and managed to get into universities and research centers throughout the world, where they have much better working conditions (and salaries sometimes at a 50:1 ratio), will never come back. Radivoj Petrovic, scientific advisor at the "Mihajlo Pupin" Institute and a university professor, claims that no one knows the precise number of scientists (mostly young) who left the country. A few days ago, when the president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia visited "Mihajlo Pupin", he was informed that, since the beginning of 1992, 72 scientists, including 25 talented young researchers, have left this institution. "It is tragic that our scientists cannot communicate with the world. We don't get scientific magazines", said Petrovic, "Yugoslavs don't take part in international scientific projects, the participation of our scientists in international gatherings is obstructed and even brutally prevented. Sometimes even the publishing of our people's scientific works is banned. We have been thrown out of the OECD, the EC's scientific and technical committee, the Tempus, Eureka and Esprit scientific programs... The winner of the upcoming elections will be faced with all this problems. In short, the situation in Serbian science looks like this: a little of science, a lot of the ministries of science, and the least of real science. True, these ministries have figures showing that there are over 10,000 people in Serbia dealing with science and development. In reality that figure is at least three to five times smaller, and even ten times smaller in regard to scientific results. Evil tongues say - out of the three ministers of science, as many as two have never published a scientific work abroad", said Petrovic.

One of those who foresaw with most accuracy what awaited the winner was Vuk Stambolovic, professor of social medicine at the Medical faculty in Belgrade. Two years ago, he claimed that after a years-long drunkenness we are to experience a long-lasting hangover. The oases of common sense have been created in the meantime around the individuals and institutions that managed to avoid the nationalist hysteria. The nausea and the drowsiness, said Stambolovic, will continue to last along with the tendency towards a collective suicide, into which the current Serbian authorities are leading us. A lot of Serbs are still poisoned by nationalism and, in this regard, the elections will not bring a greater change. "No matter who comes to power, he will be under the pressure of the nationalist project and the war. Let us remember that the idea of Greater Serbia is still in force. No one has dared say that the borders are inviolable. No one dares say that we bear a part of the responsibility for the sanctions, that there are war criminals among us, that the Albanians are a nation just like the Serbs. Any politician who would say that would lose a large number of votes. For this reason everyone is cautious. But until we do this, there will be no significant changes", said Stambolic.

Most of our collocutors mention, as the most delicate issue regarding the upcoming elections, the moment of the handing over of power if, of course, the united opposition or Milan Panic win. It is nearly impossible to imagine Slobodan Milosevic, in the event of a defeat, calling his rival and congratulating him, offering his assistance in carrying out the necessary changes as painlessly as possible and to the benefit of the people.

Dusan Janjic claims that the possible handing over of power is Milosevic's last chance to really retain it. It will then become clear how much the army has really advanced towards a politically impartial position. Without a neutral army that transfer of power cannot take place. At the same time, our collocutor warns that there are no constitutional mechanisms for the transfer of power. Over the past few days, in the finale of the election campaign, many relevant public figures set out their stands. General Zivota Panic gave assurance of the army's impartiality, and the former president of the Socialist Party of Serbia Borisav Jovic said twice in a duel on TV "Politika" that his party would accept the voters' decision. However, some other leaders of the Socialist Party said recently that "a victory of spies and traitors" would by no means be allowed. The members of some Socialists' kindred parties announced a resolute defense of the present regime from Panic and his "bosses in Washington". The president of the Social-democratic party of Serbia Cedomir Mirkovic openly expressed the fear that the ruling party and its president, in the event of a defeat, would not hand over power peacefully.

It seems that many foreign observers agree with this. Being openly in favor of Milan Panic and the opposition, they are afraid that their victory could mean only the beginning and not the end of the Serbian "nightmare".