In The Shadow Of A Clash At The Top

"Faith in the project of Yugoslavia as a common state will decide the second round of the presidential elections." With these words, and before the official results of the elections in Montenegro were announced, presidential candidate Branko Kostic began a new confrontation with current Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic, presently his biggest rival on Montenegro's political scene. During the campaign until January 3, when the Montenegrin electorate is to decide which of the two leaders it will support, papers and feathers will fly, above all because no blows will be spared in the fight. Such an epilogue of the early presidential elections in Montenegro was little expected, even less so that these elections would push into second place the parliamentary elections, especially since the president does not have such great powers under the Montenegrin constitution.

Kostic is persistent in his efforts to convince the people that the goal of his candidacy is not a wish for power but a struggle for Yugoslavia as a common state of Serbia and Montenegro, which, in his view, is being threatened above all by the political leadership of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). Kostic used the election campaign to "draw the public's attention to that fact," because, "if such policy were to be continued, it would lead to chaos, and the further dismembering of Yugoslavia must not be permitted at any cost." In this context, Kostic is again stressing that the fact Bulatovic accepted the Hague document is the most tragic act and that primarily because the DPS leadership abandoned the policy which secured it a convincing victory in the last elections, the party has now won 30% less votes.

At the same time, Bulatovic accused Kostic of being precisely the one who conceived the hellish plan of sending Montenegrin soldiers to Banija, without the knowledge of the Montenegrin leadership, with the death of Montenegrins there being revenge for Bulatovic's conduct in the Hague. On the other hand, Kostic underscores that the withdrawal of Montenegrins was also one of the fatal mistakes of the republican leadership which was of crucial influence on the outcome of the war for Yugoslavia. Such a confrontation, which revealed in what circumstances and on behalf of what decisions had been made or, to put it better, how the lives of Montenegrin soldiers were made light of, shocked to such an extent that many expected it would result in the elimination of both rival candidates.

Kostic hopes that in the second round he will win the support of all those who have Yugoslavia in their hearts and he expects to say a lot more on the work of the Montenegrin leadership. Bulatovic, on the other hand, promises he will be in a position to unmask the half-truths of his rival Kostic and thus make senseless the accusations of anti-Yugoslavianism. Svetozar Marovic, DPS Secretary General, said that Kostic will have the support of the Serbian block in the second round, and Kostic responds that the DPS leadership is speculating with claims that he is the candidate of the Serbian Radical Party, predicting support for him from the League of Communists - Movement for Yugoslavia, the New Communist Movement, the association of war veterans, as well as a substantial part of the DPS.

In the first round, Bulatovic had around 20 % more support of the electorate than Kostic. What could happen in the second round cannot be forecast with certainty by anyone because it is difficult to assess what the stand of the voters will be after the announced war with confidential state papers. The general conviction is that Bulatovic won the maximum of votes which he can count on, while Kostic can also count on the votes of Novak Kilibarda, leader of the People's Party. Neither of them can expect to get the 20 or so percent of votes won by the leader of the liberals Slavko Perovic, much less that a large number of voters will turn out for the second round of the race. What is nevertheless most certain is that fear of change will decide once again, as it already has in the parliamentary elections.

The results of the elections have baffled analysts who do not have a response to the question what really happened with the electorate. No-one expected a defeat for the DPS, especially after their turn towards advocating peace, insisting on the traditions of the Montenegrins and the Montenegrin state, and obvious taking over of parts of the programs of parties of the so-called Montenegrin block, especially the Liberal Alliance. But with barely 42 votes, with the generosity of the D'Hondt system and some other unclarified circumstances, the DPS barely secured an absolute majority in parliament, as in the republican so also among Montenegro's seats in the federal parliament. The unclarified circumstances relate to bargaining with the number of voters who turned out for the elections. Initial reports said the turnout was slightly more than 50 percent, with the percentage subsequently growing by the hour. But the announcement that nearly 20% of the voters who turned out voted only two hours before the polling closed is practically unbelievable. The voting was repeated at two polling stations because "there were more ballots than voters in the boxes." At one of the polling stations this is being justified with a power cut. The more suspicious link both occurrences with the poor knowledge of mathematics of the presidents of the election commissions at those stations. Others ask themselves what happened with the boxes when they were removed from the light, that is, how is it that the first report of a turnout of only 40 % in Ulcinj was corrected the next day to 64%. People claim that there were no big crowds this time like in the elections in 1990. The suspicions in the work of the election committees are being strengthened by the fact that a Liberal Alliance observer barely made it out alive after trying to check whether a ballot box was sealed according to regulations.

The growth of the turnout percentage eliminated from parliament the Democratic Alliance of Albanians in Montenegro who, according to reliable information, at the end lacked only several scores of votes to win four seats in it. It is difficult to say whether this was the only thing that was crucial for the DPS to win an absolute majority in the republican parliament. There are too many complaints but none of the sides has asked for an annulment of the elections due to a conviction that a repeat would not essentially change anything. The sharpest criticism came from Perovic, who said that with all the irregularities and non-democratic procedure of the elections, around 15% of the votes were manipulated with.

A change in the balance of power occurred to the advantage of the right-wing Serbian block, since the Serbian Radical Party's entry into the republican parliament with eight seats was little expected. The People's Party had 12 seats in the 125-seat parliament so far, and in the new, reduced 85-seat parliament, it will have 14. The liberals and social democrats-reformists have a total of 17 seats and have already announced that there can be no coalition with the DPS, even though leaders of the ruling party have said that they will extend a hand to all those who want to participate in the joint constituting of authority.

In any event, the balance of forces on Montenegro's political scene has not changed substantially. Analysts are inclined to claim that in these elections, Serbia's President Slobodan Milosevic was the only one who, with the help of Kostic, has succeeded in destabilizing the Montenegrin authorities. Much in Montenegro will in future continue to depend on the course of developments in Belgrade, because, after everything that has happened, a re-establishing of the severed ties between the DPS and the Socialist Party of Serbia can hardly be expected.