The Map Of The Invisible

Boban (or the Croats, if you prefer) got more than they asked for: apart from Herzeg-Bosnia (Province No 8), they got Province No 10, a Croatian-Moslem "mixture", and, quite unexpectedly, the Bosnian Posavina (Province No 13), from where the last remaining Croatian armed formations and the local HVO (Croatian Council of Defence) withdrew several months ago, after an exodus of the Croatian population.

Except for purely tactical reasons, Radovan Karadzic has nothing to accept. His "Serbian Republic" is divided into an archipelago of provinces made up of Bosnian Krajina (Province No 2), the former SAO (Serbian Autonomous Region) Semberija (Province No 4), Eastern Herzegovina, a small part along the Montenegrin, i.e. Serbian border and the "island" of Pale region (Province No 6). The map does not explicitly recognize any of the "liberated" territories in North-Western Bosnia (Bihac, Sanski Most, Prijedor, Bosanski Novi), in Posavina (Derventa, Doboj, Modrica, Gradacac, Brcko) or in Sarajevo surroundings (Pale, Ilijas, Hadzici) and Eastern Herzegovina (Stolac, Trebinje).

Alija Izetbegovic has no choice: the people he is willing to represent practically do not exist any more in political terms, except in Cazinska Krajina, central Bosnia and a part of Eastern B-H (Provinces No 1, 5 and 9); the (un)expected "gift" in the "mixed" Moslem-Croatian province (No 10) will not make him happy, bearing in mind the fact that Serbian and Croatian "fighters" have had a fruitful cooperation in that region for a very long time, while the alleged Moslem-Croatian coalition in the field is suspicious.

And finally, what is not on the Geneva map and what cannot be seen? There is no unique, continuous "Serbian Republic", there is no corridor through Posavina, which is of vital importance for the Republic of Serbian Krajina (in Croatia) and the "Serbian Republic" in Bosnia, there is no secession ("self-determination" in the popular local political slang). There are no two million B-H refugees, nearly one half of the former B-H population. The explanation that in drawing the latest Geneva map economic, ethnic and historical criteria were respected is only tinkering with the problem, since the main principle (which may not be clear at the first glance) is still the principle of ethnic "density". From that point of view, the redrawing of borders of certain municipalities in Bosnia becomes as explainable as the intention to evade the verification of the local military conquests. On the other hand, however, the ethnic criterion (census '81 and '91) was neglected. Furthermore, relevant statistics prove that not even one third of the displaced - once they decide or are forced to become refugees - return to their homes.