The Same, Only A Little Worse

In the so much awaited nation-wide address, after which what he said once again seemed unclear, president Cosic did mention two important things: that the results of the December 1992 elections worsened our image in the world and that a concentration national salvation government, with political and non-political figures should be formed. This could mean that the President of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia - who, under article 96 paragraph 2 of the Constitution, after hearing the opinion of MP groups, proposes to the federal assembly a candidate for the post of federal prime minister - now declares that he is not willing to give the mandate to the victorious coalition. According to the results of the elections, this could only be the Serbian socialists and the Serbian radicals.

Cosic is, in fact, trying to revise the results of the elections. Judging by what Montenegrin president Momir Bulatovic said in his election campaign, the Montenegrin Democratic Party of Socialists will insist on the prime minister being from Montenegro. That party counts on some kind of program coalition with the party that is still closest to it - the Serbian Socialist Party, which is openly in favour of Branko Kostic. Therefore, a coalition with the Democratic Movement of Serbia is out of the question, since the Montenegrin socialists see this opposition coalition as rightist and monarchistic.

If the Serbian socialists do not decide to overthrow Cosic, they could accept his appeal for rallying all moderate democratic forces as a good service and start advocating a national salvation government. Their younger representatives are already talking about some kind of concentration government, but they are practically mocking Cosic's idea about congregation. They want a concentration government that they themselves would compose.

DEPOS announced that it hasn't discussed a coalition with the socialists. And the parliament? The federal one will serve for overthrowing the federal government when the socialists reach the end of their rope. The Serbian socialists know that a national salvation government could, if they do not control it, within a certain time, not shorter than six months and with Cosic's help, dissolve the parliament. Even if they agree to such a government, it is not illogical to expect that in six month's time, they, with the help of the radicals, simply pass a vote of nonconfidence, in order to narrow down its manoeuvering space and in order to continue to rule with the help of decomposed institutions.

The most obvious reinforcement of the parliament has come through DEPOS. It is still not clear what the fact that behind their representatives stand crown institutions will actually mean. If DEPOS and the Democratic Party make peace (constant frictions probably cost them the elections) and if they manage to agree on some kind of "shadow government" (with Milan Panic), their activity in the parliament would be better conceived and perhaps more fruitful.

These two formations could eventually join their economic programs. Rakitic (DEPOS) and Micunovic (Democratic Party) managed to come to terms in the Serbian parliament; Djindjic (Democratic Party) and Kostunica (Democratic Party of Serbia) have proved to be able to get together. There are experts in constitutional law among the newly elected MPs (and among Socialists as well), that could work together on a constitutional reform, which Cosic presented as urgent. The socialists will have their standard team. Radicals in the federal parliament will be headed by Vojislav Seselj, which might mean that his team in the republican parliament, despite its numerousness, will be in the shadow of the Socialists.

On the extreme right, the attention of the media will, to all intents and purposes, focus on Zeljko Raznjatovic Arkan. There has been speculation about an open coalition of the Socialists and Radicals. Certain opposition wished the Radicals and the Socialist created an open coalition, assessing that this would lead to yet another division in the Socialist ranks. The other, more probable speculation that the Socialists will form a government on their own with the tacit support of Seselj's Radicals is also based on the assumption that the Socialists have enough of their people among Seselj's MPs. Some counted on Seselj not being able the control the large body of the Radical MPs. Seselj has shown to be aware of this since he accepted the resignations of all the MPs belonging to his party and he can re-activate them if they change the party. DEPOS has a relatively strong team, the Democrats will act as before. We've already seen what the Radicals can offer. On the other hand, compared to the parliamentary majority, the Montenegrins could look stately, as they did in the former parliament. One could say that the most active MPs from the last term of office and a large part of the parliamentary parties' political leaderships, with the exception of Vuk Draskovic, who was only on some of the lists of the Democratic Movement of Serbia, remained in the parliament, which points to the conclusion that one should not hope for a miracle.

The Socialists and the Radicals will continue blowing their trumpets in parliament since they both won with the help of a war propaganda. All the decisions will be taken in parallel centers of power. It will be no surprize if they continue preventing the opposition in parliament to reasonably defend its program. One should also not rule out the possibility of precisely the Socialists being the initiators of new elections, if they realize that there is no chance of succeeding in a conflict with the entire world, if they realize that their rickety and corrupt state apparatus is not suitable for ruling with the help of broadly applied repression and that Seselj has been used up.

President Milosevic has broad competencies. He can easily dissolve such a parliament any time he likes. The socialist nomenclature will remain intact, with a symbolic unloading of the burden, since they won local authority in most municipalities and since they control all the state and socially owned firms in which they continue placing confidential people. The rule over the phone will go on, but this will be increasingly difficult since one can expect that, under the burden of the crisis and the isolation, the destruction of the social tissue and of most institutions will continue and even accelerate. Salaries will head towards the value of ten marks. It is clear that they will preserve at all costs their coalition with the workers on compulsory vacation, whose maintenance is no longer possible without hyper-inflation, but it is not known how long that wheel can roll. The socialists will not be able to resist continuing to rotate their universal cadre in the post of prime minister, and perhaps, for the sake of refreshment, they will bring some director from the interior of the country. They will not be able to feed all the hungry even if they try to establish some kind of war-time communism. They can probably not lean on some kind of dictatorship of the south American type, since they do not have what south American colonels do - a compact and efficient army. They will, in fact, be able to count on the fact that, as is the case now, with the growth of poverty the fear of changes will also increase and that the capitalism being advocated by the opposition will frighten the increasingly large number of poor people. The victory in the central Belgrade borroughs is no comfort for the opposition which has shown that it is not in form, just like two years ago, and which has lost the chance of creating a basis for the next elections by winning local authority. As things now stand, it is once again in the position to be out-shouted and outvoted, with the low-spirited support of its voters. Its rhetoric has proved to be totally ineffective.