An Unlamented Victim

Had the attack taken place before the war in Bosnia, all television sycophants would have raised hell. A patriotic rally would have been held in Leskovac, and scientists would tell us why the invasion of Sarajevo was a necessary evil. Belgrade cannot use the dead to its political advantage. It has agreed to Bosnia-Herzegovina's integrity as a state, and has entered peace talks. With a lamb's docility it is trying to soothe Washington's ire.

The docility is a bluff. Belgrade has finished with Bosnia, and that is why there is no interest in Bajina Basta. Radovan Karadzic's oil-loving patriots and shepherd -desperados will continue expelling Moslems and Croats from their districts. Everybody will be doing that. It is a form of popular entertainment, helping them to forget burned down homes, and also helping forge a stronger link between the Serbian districts and Serbia.

It is too early to push our people into a war in the south over Bajina Basta. There are no strikes or street disturbances in Serbia, but they could break out soon. Since no economic reforms are being carried out, Milosevic has no choice but to continue as before and produce an ersatz loyalty to the regime. A crime against Serbs in Bosnia, a Hungarian scandal in Vojvodina, a slogan in Pristina calling for an independent Kosovo, are something Belgrade war propagandists can get their teeth into. "There can be no progress and a wealthy Serbia while its very existence is threatened."

The real trouble will take place in Kosovo. There will be no model of the Vance-Owen type there. In order to protect himself from a knife in the back before a military intervention is launched, Milosevic will first strengthen his Bosnian shepherd guard. But, the free-for-all in Kosovo will start only after Macedonia. Milosevic must kick up such a fuss over Macedonia, so that not even Kiro Gligorov, the best politician in the former Yugoslavia, will not be able to hang on. While all are greedily tearing Macedonia apart, Belgrade, hidden in the background will bring up the question of Kosovo as part of the Balkan conflicts. Serbia does not want Kosovo to stand out as an isolated issue. By burying it in all the other conflicts, Serbia will remove the danger of a military intervention by the West. Once the horizon has become sufficiently foggy, Serbia will start out openly against Kosovo, pushing the Albanians into the mountains until they have been crushed. Will the West help Albania prevent Serbia's progress? It does not seem so. It will give enough gold to divide up Kosovo from inside, without changing Serbia's outer borders, so that both sides will be satisfied. Perhaps the West will proclaim another international protectorate. But, it won't last long.

Russia will stay out of the game unless the nationalists topple Boris Yeltsin. If they do, a general post-Socialism tragedy will start. The West wanted to get rid of Communism by using nationalists - well the results are there for all to see. The West did not cough up a single penny to help re-privatization programs in Eastern Europe. It wants democratic governments without spending money. But, democracy does not fill empty stomachs. The disintegration of the East is happening through the criminal amassing of wealth by 1000 new families, an impoverished state and its degradation to a corrupt sycophant in the hands of street gangs and the secret police. Through the rotting of millions of families, frightened enough to defend the nation in the steppes, in Bosnia, in Kazakhstan, on the seas and in the skies, for a bit of dripping. Unless Washington loosens the purse strings, there is not much point in Yeltsin being a democrat, he will have to change. And, if he has enough common sense, he could become another Milosevic.